Update:
On my predictions, I got 35/43 for a score of 80%, not quite as good as I did last year. By category:
Picture: I predicted all the nominees, but thought they'd go to 9 and add If Beale Street Could Talk.
Actor: Missed Willem Defoe (At Eternity's Gate) by predicting Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
Actress: Missed Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) by predicting Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
S. Actor: Missed Sam Rockwell (Vice) by predicting Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
S. Actress: Missed Marina de Tavira (Roma) by predicting Clare Foy (First Man)
Director: Missed Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War) and Adam McKay (Vice) by predicting Bradley Cooper (ASIB) and Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
O. Screenplay: Missed First Reformed for Eighth Grade
A. Screenplay: Missed Ballad of Buster Scruggs for Leave No Trace.
I correctly predicted The Favourite to do as well as it did. Roma did even better than I thought, while A Star is Born, Black Panther, and First Man underperformed.
Before we jump into any other analysis, I just want to remember a few GREAT movies that will not be Oscar nominees: Leave No Trace, Widows, Eighth Grade, Sorry to Bother You, Private Life, Hereditary.
Predictions
Before nominations come out on Tuesday, I thought I'd make my best guesses.
It's been a crazy year, with critically acclaimed films seemingly falling by the wayside (Widows, First Man, maybe Beale Street...), and not-so-acclaimed films (Bohemian Rhapsody, Vice, Green Book) running away with a lot of precursor support.
Here's what I predict will be the overall Nomination leaders:
-A Star is Born (11 Nominations)
-The Favourite (10 Nominations)
-Roma (9 Nominations)
-Black Panther (8 Nominations)
-First Man (8 Nominations, although not predicting for Best Picture)
Here are my predictions for the major categories (in order of likelihood):
Best Picture
Locks
1. Roma
2. A Star is Born
3. BlacKkKlansman
4. Green Book
5. The Favourite
Likely
6. Black Panther
7. Vice
Possible
8. Bohemian Rhapsody
9. If Beale Street Could Talk
First Man
A Quiet Place
Eighth Grade
Mary Poppins Returns
Cold War
Crazy Rich Asians
Leave No Trace
First Reformed
This year, Best Picture could either go exactly as expected, or we could be due for an exciting surprise. My big wish is that Beale Street makes it in.
Best Actor
Locks
1. Christian Bale, Vice
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Possible
4. Viggo Mortenson, Green Book
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Willem Defoe, At Eternity's Gate
I think there are pretty much 7 real contenders for 5 spots. Despite a lack of some precursor support, I have to think (and hope) Hawke will have enough passionate support in his corner to pull out a nomination.
Best Actress
Locks
1. Glenn Close, The Wife
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite
3. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Likely
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Possible
5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Viola Davis, Widows
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
This category is ridiculously stacked this year. If you hear yelps Oscar morning, it's because Toni Collette pulled off a surprising nomination.
Best Supporting Actor
Locks
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Likely
3. Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Possible
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Like Actor, 7 contenders for 5 spots. I REALLY want to predict Michael B. Jordan, but the stats are telling me not to.
Best Supporting Actress
Locks
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
3. Amy Adams, Vice
4. Emma Stone, The Favourite
Possible
5. Claire Foy, First Man
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots
Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
Linda Cardellini, Green Book
Since two leads from The Favourite are hanging out in this category (category fraud!), it will leave lots of supporting candidates on the outside looking in. The fifth spot feels very competitive.
Best Director
Locks
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Likely
2. Spike Lee, BlackKKlansman
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Possible
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
5. Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Adam McKay, Vice
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
Debra Granik, Leave No Trace
Damien Chazelle, First Man
I'm almost sure I'm getting this category wrong, but I'm not sure how! Really hoping that either Barry Jenkins or Debra Granik can somehow sneak in.
Best Original Screenplay
Locks
1. The Favourite
Likely
2. Roma
3. Green Book
4.Vice
Possible
5. Eighth Grade
First Reformed
A Quiet Place
Cold War
Sorry to Bother You
Best Adapted Screenplay
Locks
1. BlackKKlansman
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
Likely
3. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Possible
4. A Star is Born
5. Leave No Trace
Black Panther
The Death of Stalin
Crazy Rich Asians
First Man
