Nominations!

And here they are!

A few thoughts:

• In my predictions, I got 38/44 in the 8 major categories for a score of 86%. Last year was my personal record with 91%, but cheers to a less predictable race!
• The Shape of Water leads with 13 nominations. Coincidentally, it's also my least favorite of the ones I've seen... I'll be catching up with Three Billboards, Darkest Hour, and The Post.
• Biggest (happy) surprise for me was the impressive showing for Phantom Thread, with unexpected nods in Picture, Director, and Supporting Actress. It's not a movie for everyone's taste, but I loved it and PT Anderson is a true visionary.
• My favorite category is easily Best Director. I was very worried they would leave off either Jordan Peele or Greta Gerwig, and they didn't. Plus, a Paul Thomas Anderson nomination!
• My saddest exclusions were in the Supporting categories. I actually prefer the unnominated Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name) and Holly Hunter (The Big Sick) to any of the nominees in their respective categories.
• With only 2 nominations (Picture and Actress), The Post really underperformed expectations. Nevertheless, Meryl Streep keeps topping her previous records with ease, earning her 21st acting nomination.

On to the list, and a few thoughts on the race as it stands now.

Best Picture:

“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”“Dunkirk”“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”“Phantom Thread”“The Post”“The Shape of Water”“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

I got 7/9 here. I thought I, Tonya would get in, and didn't predict Darkest Hour or Phantom Thread. Of what I've seen, this is a pretty great lineup.  I love 5 of them and am mixed on The Shape of Water. I've yet to see 3 Billboards, The Post, and Darkest Hour.

Should have been here: My favorite of the year, The Florida Project.  

Will Win: Conventional wisdom and precursor support say it's Three Billboards vs. The Shape of Water. I have a sneaking feeling those two may have peakeda little too soon, and we could see a come from behind win from Lady Bird or Get Out.  I think this is a truly tight race.

Lead Actor:

Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

I went 4/5, putting in James Franco (The Disaster Artist) and missing Denzel Washington in a movie people really didn't talk about much.

Should have been here: Nothing jumps out.  I loved the performances of Chalamet, Day-Lewis, and Kaluuya.

Will Win: Oldman. For a minute in the season, it looked Chalamet had a shot for his transcendent performance, but Darkest Hour seems well-loved and should easily pull Oldman to a win.

Lead Actress:

Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

I went 5/5 in this expected lineup, as did most pundits.

Should have been here: Vicky Krieps for Phantom Thread. She's just as good as nominees Daniel Day-Lewis and Lesley Manville, and her performance is perhaps the most crucial in making Phantom Thread work.

Will Win: Most likely McDormand, with a small chance Ronan gets in.

Supporting Actor:

Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

I went 4/5 here, picking Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name), over Plummer.  Plummer makes history here as the oldest acting nominee ever, beating out Gloria Stuart from Titanic.

Should have been here: Stuhlbarg!! He is incredible in Call Me By Your Name.

Will Win: Probably Rockwell, unless the Three Billboards backlash comes on strong and Dafoe wins.

Supporting Actress:

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

I went 4/5 here, missing Manville for Holly Hunter (The Big Sick). 

Should have been here: Hunter for my favorite supporting performance of the year. I'm thrilled Manville made it, but couldn't she have replaced Spencer, who didn't have much to do in The Shape of Water? I'd also have loved to see Tiffany Haddish get in for Girls trip.

Will Win: Probably Allison Janney, but don't count out Laurie Metcalf in the much-loved Lady Bird.

Director:

“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

I went 4/5 here, missing PT Anderson for Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards).  What a great list!! I literally yelped when Peele, Gerwig, and PT Anderson all made it, along with Nolan finally getting a nomination after being snubbed for years. 

Should have been here: Sean Baker for The Florida Project. With his on location shooting and mixing of child actors, nonprofessionals, and veteran actors, it's a remarkable achievement.

Will Win: del Toro seems to be running away with this, which is too bad because all four of the others deserve to be in the conversation for the win.

Adapted Screenplay:

“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

I went 5/5 here.  Fun fact: Logan is the first superhero movie to get a Best Screenplay nomination.

Should have been here: The Lost City of Z.

Will win: Call Me by Your Name.  This seems to be one of the surest wins this year.

Original Screenplay:

“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh

I went 5/5 here in a competititve category.

Should have been here: Phantom Thread. As well as it did, I'm surprised it didn't show up here as well.

Will Win: Tough call. It's Get Out vs. Lady Bird vs. Three Billboards, and could go any which way.

Animated Feature:

“The Boss Baby,” Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito
“The Breadwinner,” Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo
“Coco,” Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson
“Ferdinand,” Carlos Saldanha
“Loving Vincent,” Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Sean Bobbitt, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman

Animated Short:

“Dear Basketball,” Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant“Garden Party,” Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon
“Lou,” Dave Mullins, Dana Murray
“Negative Space,” Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata
“Revolting Rhymes,” Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer

Cinematography:

“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins
“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel
“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema
“Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison
“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen

Best Documentary Feature:

“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail,” Steve James, Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman
“Faces Places,” JR, Agnès Varda, Rosalie Varda
“Icarus,” Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan
“Last Men in Aleppo,” Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed, Soren Steen Jepersen
“Strong Island,” Yance Ford, Joslyn Barne

Best Docume

ntary Short Subject:

“Edith+Eddie,” Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright
“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405,” Frank Stiefel
“Heroin(e),” Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin Sheldon“Knife Skills,” Thomas Lennon“Traffic Stop,” Kate Davis, David Heilbroner

Best Live Action Short Film:

“DeKalb Elementary,” Reed Van Dyk
“The Eleven O’Clock,” Derin Seale, Josh Lawson
“My Nephew Emmett,” Kevin Wilson, Jr.
“The Silent Child,” Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton
“Watu Wote/All of Us,” Katja Benrath, Tobias Rosen

Best Foreign Language Film:

“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)
“The Insult” (Lebanon)
“Loveless” (Russia)
“On Body and Soul (Hungary)“The Square” (Sweden)

Film Editing:

“Baby Driver,” Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss
“Dunkirk,” Lee Smith
“I, Tonya,” Tatiana S. Riegel
“The Shape of Water,” Sidney Wolinsky
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Jon Gregory

Sound Editing:

“Baby Driver,” Julian Slater
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mark Mangini, Theo Green
“Dunkirk,” Alex Gibson, Richard King
“The Shape of Water,” Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood

Sound Mixing:

“Baby Driver,” Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mac Ruth, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill
“Dunkirk,” Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo
“The Shape of Water,” Glen Gauthier, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick

Production Design:

“Beauty and the Beast,” Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer
“Blade Runner 2049,” Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
“Darkest Hour,” Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer“Dunkirk,” Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
“The Shape of Water,” Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau

Original Score:

“Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer
“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood
“The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell

Original Song:

“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens
“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul

Makeup and Hair:

“Darkest Hour,” Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick“Victoria and Abdul,” Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
“Wonder,” Arjen Tuiten

Costume Design:

“Beauty and the Beast,” Jacqueline Durran
“Darkest Hour,” Jacqueline Durran
“Phantom Thread,” Mark Bridges
“The Shape of Water,” Luis Sequeira
“Victoria and Abdul,” Consolata Boyle

Visual Effects:

“Blade Runner 2049,” John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, Gerd Nefzer
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2,” Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick
“Kong: Skull Island,” Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,”  Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Chris Corbould, Neal Scanlan
“War for the Planet of the Apes,” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist

Oscar Nomination Predictions

With Oscar nominations coming up Tuesday, here are my best bets in the major categories, listed in order of likelihood.

In all likelihood The Shape of Water will lead with the most nominations, probably followed by Dunkirk.


Picture

Locks
1.Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. The Shape of Water
3. Get Out
4. Lady Bird
5. Dunkirk

Likely
6. Call Me By Your Name

Possible
7. The Post
8. I, Tonya
The Big Sick
The Florida Project
Darkest Hour
Mudbound
Phantom Thread
Wonder Woman
Phantom Thread
Molly's Game

The top 5 feel extremely locked.  We could have anywhere between 5-10, though, and that's where things get murky. I'm pretty confident Call Me By Your Name will also make it due to its passionate fan base.

While I think The Post is likely to make it in, I could also see it being snubbed. It's lost out on a lot of the precursors. After that, there's a bunch of movies that could make it. I'm pulling hard for The Florida Project, my favorite of the year.

Director

Lock
1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Likely
2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

Possible
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
4. Martin McDonough, Three Billboards
5. Jordan Peele, Get Out
Luca Guadignino, Call Me By Your Name
Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Dennis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049
Dee Rees, Mudbound
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

Please God let both Gerwig and Peele get in!

Actor

Locks
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

Likely
3. Daniel Day Lewis, Phantom Thread

Possible
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
5. James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Tom Hanks, The Post
Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger

The Franco sexual harrassment allegations hit right during Oscar voting. Will it make a difference? It seems like most (but not all) ballots had probably already been filled out, so it's hard to say.

Actress

Locks
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
2. Saorsie Ronan, Lady Bird

Likely
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
5. Meryl Streep, The Post

Possible
Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool

The top 5 have felt locked up for a long time. There's no reason to think they won't be the lineup.

Supporting Actor

Locks
1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Likely
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

Possible
4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards
5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Steve Carrell, Battle of the Sexes

This category feels murky. While he's missed a lot of precursors, I'm going with Stuhlbarg. How can you see Call Me By Your Name and NOT vote for him?

Supporting Actress

Locks
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Likely
3. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

Possible
4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Catherine Keener, Get Out
Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour

The toughest category to predict. I would LOVE a Haddish nomination, as long as it's not at the expense of Holly Hunter.

Original Screenplay

Locks
1. Get Out
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird

Possible
4. The Big Sick
5. The Shape of Water
I, Tonya
The Post
Phantom Thread
The Florida Project

An insanely competitive category, so a major Best Picture contender will certainly be left off.

Adapted Screenplay

Locks
1. Call Me By Your Name

Likely
2. Mudbound
3. Molly's Game

Possible
4. The Disaster Artist
5. Logan
Wonder
Wonder Woman
The Lost City of Z
Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool


I strangely underpopulated category this year, as most of the big movies are in Original Screenplay.

Top 10 of (ahem) 2016

What, you were hoping for a 2017 list? In this year of a new baby, I've procrastinated big time. On the plus side, it's given me time to rewatch some 2016 movies, and let's me know what movies have lingered as time has gone by.

First, my #16-25 in alphabetical order, all of which I really enjoyed and are worth a viewing:

Everybody Wants Some!
Fences
Hell or High Water
Jackie
Silence
Sing Street
Southside with You
Toni Erdmann
Weiner
The Witch

And my 5 runners-up, which on another day any could have easily made my list:

Don't Think Twice
I Am Not Your Negro
Loving
Manchester by the Sea
Things to Come

10. Krisha: A super indie family movie that plays like a horror film. Totally unique and unforgettable.

9. Hail, Caesar!: I think this will live on as one of the Coen Brothers' most underrated films. Packed to the gills with old Hollywood love and delicious performances.











8. Certain Women: Kelly Reichardt's quiet trio of female lives in the vast American west. Beautifully done, especially the breathtakingly perfect third act with Kristen Stewart and Lily Gladstone.

7. American Honey: British director Andrea Arnold sees American culture with such fresh, non-condescending eyes. Vibrant and heartbreaking at the same time, much like 2017's The Florida Project.

6. OJ: Made in America: The Oscars said it's a movie, even many called this ESPN documentary a TV show, so I'll go with that. A relentlessly watchable 8-hour dive into celebrity, policing, America, and, race.

5. The Lobster: High-concept film at it's best. A deadpan satire that hilariously illuminates so much about modern culture.

4. La La Land: Forget the haters who framed this as some sort of run-of-the-mill Hollywood pap. Director Damien Chazelle had the bravery to go all in on an ORIGINAL Hollywood musical, playing with past influences while making the film his own.

3. 20th Century Women: A beautiful, big-hearted movie about an unconventional woman, her son, and the ragtag group who help raise him. Even more impressive on a second viewing.

2. Arrival: Wins as my most tears shed at a movie last year.  Haven't had a chance to see this again yet, but can't wait to see how it plays on a second viewing. The movie's structure is played for real emotion, not as a cheap gimmick.

1. Moonlight: It's a miracle that an indie movie this delicate, artfully made, and perfect could (infamously!) triumph at the Oscars. What else is there to say? It's destined to be a modern classic, and I can't wait to see what director Barry Jenkins does next.

Best Leading Performances of 2016

Still catching up from 2017 before I jump into the Oscar season of 2016. Some very quick thoughts!

Actress

Amy Adams, Arrival

A beautiful performance that, due to the twists in the movie, has to hold a whole lot inside of it. I can't wait to watch it again.

Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

One of the most distinctive mothers ever put on screen.  Bening is so good at playing a specific character when others would turn to archetype.

Isabelle Huppert, Things to Come

She was great (and Oscar nominated) in the provocative Elle, but even better in Things to Come, a quiet but revelatory movie about a woman in later middle age who finds her life has changed.

Ruth Negga, Loving

A quiet performance, as Mildred Loving but oh the things she can do with those eyes. The two scenes on the telephone are remarkable.

Emma Stone, La La Land

Few actresses could pull off the right mix of classic and modern to sell a modern day musical, but Stone is one of them. Charming from start to finish, and particularly revelatory in the "Audition" scene.

My winner: Bening
Runner-Up: Negga

Runners Up: Kate Beckinsale (Love and Friendship), Sonia Braga (Aquarius), Krisha Fairchild (Krisha), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Rebecca Hall (Christine)

Matches with Oscar: We agreed on Stone, Negga, and Huppert (although for a different role), while Portman was on my runner-up list.  Oscar also went with its traditional Meryl Streep slot in Florence Foster Jenkins, which was good but not one of her best.


Actor

Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

Over a year later, I'm still haunted by this performance. In his method and emotional acting, he's like a modern-day Brando.

Joel Edgerton (Loving)

Like Negga, Edgerton gives a quiet but revelatory quiet perfectly suited to the story and the film its in.

Colin Farrell (The Lobster)

The marvelous movie The Lobster couldn't pull of its tricky tone without a great deadpan performance at its center. Farrell gives his best performance ever.

Peter Simonischek (Toni Erdmann)

It's hard to describe this father-daughter movie, but suffice it to say it wouldn't work half as well without the performance of the prankish father trying to form a relationship with his self-serious adult daughter.

Denzel Washington (Fences)

A master class performance perfected on the stage. Watching, Fences, it's clear Denzel is one of our greatest actors.

My winner: Affleck. I was completely team Denzel last Oscar season, but Affleck's performance has stuck with me more.

Runner-Up: Washington

Runners Up: Josh Brolin (Hail, Caesar!), Adam Driver (Paterson), Andrew Garfield (Silence), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Chris Pine (Hell or High Water)

Matches with Oscar: Just Affleck and Washington, with Gosling as one of my runner-ups. The other two nominated performances went to decent performances in movies I did not enjoy: Andrew Garfield in Hacksaw Ridge and Viggo Mortenson in Captain Fantastic.