**3/15: Edited with results. I missed one in most categories. Not a bad set of nominees at all! I'm thrilled
for Sound of Metal and Judas and the Black Messiah, borderline contenders who really came through.
36/43 for me. 84%.
It’s time to re-activate my blog for Oscar season. Here are my picks for the big categories. It’s a weird
year, so I could be way off on a couple of categories! I'll update Monday with how I did
I'm guessing big nomination totals for:
-Mank (9): Ended up with 10, a bit better than I expected.
-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (8): Major underperformance with only 5, including no Best Picture
or Screenplay.
-Nomadland (7): Ended up with 6.
-Minari (6): 6, just as I predicted.
-The Trial of the Chicago 7 (6): 6, although missed a crucial Best Director nomination.
Here are my picks for the big categories, in order of likelihood.
Picture
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Mank
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Sound of Metal
Judas and the Black Messiah
Possibilities:
The Father
News of the World
Soul
Another Round
Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm
Da 5 Bloods
Update: Surprise omissions for Ma Rainey and One Night in Miami, and a nomination for The Father. I got 7/8.
Director
Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
David Fincher (Mank)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Possibilities:
Regina King (One Night in Miami)
Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)
Florian Zeller (The Father)
Paul Greengrass (News of the World)
Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Thomas Vintenberg (Another Round)
Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods)
Update: 4/5. Sorkin missed for Vintenberg. Oscar nominates the lone foreign director fairly often.
Actress
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Possibilities:
Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead)
Yeri Hahn (Minari)
Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy)
Update: 5/5. Lineup as most expected.
Actor
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
Steven Yeun (Minari)
Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)
Possibilities:
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods)
Mads Mikkelson (Another Round)
Update: 4/5. I was predicting a snub for Oldman, but he made it in. The Mauritanian didn't get anything.
Supporting Actress
Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)
Olivia Colman (The Father)
Maria Bakalova (Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm)
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)
Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian)
Possibilities:
Amanda Seyfried (Mank)
Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)
Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Helena Zengel (News of the World)
Swankie (Nomadland)
Update: 4/5. Seyfried made it, and Globe winner Foster didn't. Yay Maria Bakalova!!
Supporting Actor
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods)
Possibilities
Jared Leto (The Little Things)
David Strathairn (Nomadland)
Alan Kim (Minari)
Bill Murray (On the Rocks)
Frank Langella (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Update: 4/5. Boseman missed out on a double nod, and it went to LaKeith Stanfield (Judas the
Black Messiah). He's excellent, but REALLY not supporting.
Adapted Screenplay
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The White Tiger
Possibilities:
Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm
News of the World
First Cow
The Mauritanian
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Update: 4/5. I correctly got The White Tiger, but did not predict the Ma Rainey snub for Borat.
Original Screenplay
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Promising Young Woman
Minari
Mank
Sound of Metal
Possibilities:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Soul
Da 5 Bloods
Palm Spring
Another Round
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Update: 4/5. Mank missed for Judas and the Black Messiah. Good choice!
