Update: I went 38/45 on my major nominations. 84%. Not too bad!
Best Picture:
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fablemans
Top Gun: Maverick
TAR
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of the Water
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Whale
Women Talking
Possibilities:
Babylon
Triangle of Sadness
Aftersun
RRR
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Woman King
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Decision to Leave
Pinnochio
9/10: Triangle of Sadness instead of The Whale (which I now don't have to see!)
Best Director
Steven Spielberg, The Fablemans
Todd Field, TAR
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Possibilities:
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
James Cameron, Avatar: Way of the Water
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Ruben Ostland, Triangle of Sadness
Gina Prince-Blythewood, The Woman King
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
SS Rajamouli, RRR
Park Chan-Wook, Decision to Leave
Charlotte Wells, Aftersun
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
Best Director often goes in interesting directions... it's pretty likely someone major misses (see last year with Dennis Villeneuve and Dune) in favor of someone we assume is on the outside.
4/5: Ostlund instead of Berger. They always have the one European director!
Best Actor
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Bill Nighy, Living
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Possibilities
Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fablemans
Adam Sandler, Hustle
Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
Hugh Jackman, The Son
Diego Calva, Babylon
The top 3 are SUPER locked up, and Nighy is very likely. The 5th slot feels competitive.
5/5. Nailed it!
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, TAR
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Possibilities
Michelle Williams, The Fablemans
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
Cate and Michelle will be battling for the Oscar. After that, I'm not quite sure what to expect. The last 3 slots are giving me heartburn!
3/5. Danielle and Viola BOTH miss for Michelle Williams and..... in a huge schock Andrea Riseborough.
Best Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Dano, The Fablemans
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Possibilities
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Judd Hirsch, The Fablemans
Ben Wishaw, Women Talking
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Tom Hanks, Elvis
3/5. Hirsch and Tyree Henry instead of Dano and Pitt. A great lineup!
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Hong Chau, The Whale
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Possibilities
Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Nina Hoss, TAR
Janelle Monae, Glass Onion
Michelle Williams, The Fablemans (if they switch her here!)
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Carey Mulligan, She Said
5/5. I nailed it!
Adapted Screenplay
Women Talking
The Whale
Living
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion
Possibilites
She Said
Top Gun: Maverick
Pinnochio
White Noise
4/5. Top Gun: Maverick instead of The Whale.
Original Screenplay
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
TAR
The Fablemans
Triangle of Sadness
Possibilities
Aftersun
The Menu
Decision to Leave
Babylon
Elvis
5/5
