First Best Picture predictions

In a major change to Oscar protocal, this year there will be 10 nominees for Best Picture, rather than the standard five. Here are my (very) early predix for the 10 we are most likely to see. The biggest unknowns right now are the release of The Lovely Bones, Invictus, Nine, and Avatar. Will these films wow or bomb? I'm guessing at least one of these will flop, but which one?

Here are my predictions, more or less in order of likelihood. I'm fairly confident in my top 6, but after that it gets a little murky.

Precious
Up in the Air (Release Date 12/25)
Nine (Release Date 12/18)
The Hurt Locker
Invictus (Release Date 12/11)
An Education
Up
Inglorious Basterds
A Serious Man
The Lovely Bones (Release Date 12/11)

Or maybe?: Avatar, Bright Star, A Single Man, The Last Station