Oscar Precursor Stampede: Part 1 (Picture, Actor, Actress)

In the past week or so, many many critics groups and awards bodies have released their awards and nominations for 2009. I'll take a look at how each category is panning out and what that means for Oscars. I'll look at the National Board of Review (first major awards) the New York Film Critics and LA Film Critics (the two most influential critics groups), the Broadcast Film Critics (fairly predictive of Oscar), the Screen Actors Guild (ditto), and the Golden Globes (biggest prize after Oscar).

BEST PICTURE

NY Film Critics: The Hurt Locker
LA Film Critics: The Hurt Locker
National Board of Review: Up in the Air
National Board of Review Top 10: An Education, (500) Days of Summer, The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Invictus, The Messenger, A Serious Man, Star Trek, Up, Where the Wild Things Are
Broadcast Film Critics: Avatar, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Invictus, Nine, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air
Golden Globe Nominees (Drama): Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Precious, Up in the Air
Golden Globe Nominees (Comedy/Musical): (500) Days of Summer, The Hangover, It's Complicated, Julie & Julia, Nine
Screen Actors Guild (Best Ensemble): An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Nine, Precious

What does it mean? A few movies are obviously doing extremely well in these precursors: The Hurt Locker, Up in the Air, and Inglorious Basterds. The Hurt Locker seems to be winning the most awards, but I still tend to think Up in the Air is our current frontrunner for the win. The Hurt Locker is probably a little small and a little unconventional for a Best Picture win. Precious missed the National Board of Review, but otherwise looks strong. Nine, Invictus, and An Education are a little spotty in their awards attention. Also, it looks like Avatar will be good rather than a bomb..... can't wait to see it!



BEST ACTOR

NY Film Critics: George Clooney (Up in the Air & The Fantastic Mr. Fox)
LA Film Critics: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
Runner-Up: Colin Firth (A Single Man)
National Board of Review: Morgan Freeman (Invictus) & George Clooney (Up in the Air)
Broadcast Film Critics Nominees: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart); George Clooney (Up in the Air); Colin Firth (A Single Man); Morgan Freeman (Invictus); Viggo Mortenson (The Road); Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)
Golden Globe Nominees (Drama): Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart); George Clooney (Up in the Air); Colin Firth (A Single Man); Morgan Freeman (Invictus); Tobey Maguire (Brothers)
Golden Globe Nomineees (Comedy/Musical): Matt Damon (The Informant!); Daniel Day-Lewis (Nine); Robert Downey Jr. (Sherlock Holmes); Joseph Gordon-Levitt ( (500) Days of Summer); Michael Stuhlbarg (A Serious Man)
Screen Actors Guild Nominees: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart); George Clooney (Up in the Air); Colin Firth (A Single Man); Morgan Freeman (Invictus); Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)



What Does it Mean? If I had to make a bet, I'd bet our five nominees are going to match the Screen Actors Guild (Bridges, Clooney, Firth, Freeman, Renner). It looks like a Jeff Bridges vs. Clooney fight for the win. I'm super excited to see relative unknown Jeremy Renner get so much attention for The Hurt Locker. Here's hoping he goes all the way to Oscar nomination morning.

BEST ACTRESS

NY Film Critics: Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
LA Film Critics: Yolande Moreau (Seraphine) - HUH? had not even heard of this.
Runner-Up: Carey Mulligan (An Education)
National Board of Review: Carey Mulligan (An Education)
Broadcast Film Critics Nominees: Emily Blunt (The Young Victoria); Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side); Carey Mulligan (An Education); Saorsie Ronan (The Lovely Bones); Gabourey Sidibe (Precious); Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
Golden Globe Nominees (Drama): Emily Blunt (The Young Victoria); Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side); Helen Mirren (The Last Station); Carey Mulligan (An Education); Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)
Golden Globe Nominees (Comedy/Musical): Sandra Bullock (The Proposal); Marion Cotillard (Nine); Julia Roberts (Duplicity); Meryl Streep (It's Complicated); Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
Screen Actors Guild Nominees: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side); Helen Mirren (The Last Station); Carey Mulligan (An Education); Gabourey Sidibe (Precious); Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)

What does it mean? As someone who is particularly annoyed by Sandra Bullock in most roles, it pains me to admit that it looks like she has a likely claim on one of the five nomination slots this year. As with the actors, the Screen Actors Guild may have given us the same list that is likely to be Oscar nominated: Bullock, Mirren, Mulligan, Sidibe, Streep. I think it's definitely between Mulligan and Streep for the win, with my money on Streep. I loved both performances, so I haven't fully committed to a camp yet.