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Saturday, March 13, 2010
Top Scenes of 2009
Sunday, March 7, 2010
Oscar Live Blog 2010
Friday, March 5, 2010
Oscar Predictions
Oscar Predictions
So, here I go. It's always a tough choice on how to predict. After I pick these (I'm also in a very competitive Oscar pool), I always second-guess myself. There are some cakewalks this year, and also some tough calls. I'll list my pick, the next in line, and who I would pick. Please check back on my blog during the Oscar ceremony. I'll be live-blogging.
Without further ado. The winners will (or might) be......
Best Picture (starting this year, 10 nominees): Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air.
Will win: The Hurt Locker
Alternate: Avatar
My pick: A Serious Man
This has been an up-and-down season. First Up in the Air was the frontrunner, then Avatar, then The Hurt Locker. Then The Hurt Locker started getting some backlash. I'm still predicting it, though. With the new preferential ballot (basically Instant Runoff Voting), I think The Hurt Locker will have more widespread support. I don't know anyone who saw it and didn't think it was great.
Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart; George Clooney, Up in the Air; Colin Firth, A Single Man; Morgan Freeman, Invictus; Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker.
Will win: Jeff Bridges
Alternate: Jeremy Renner
My pick: Jeff Bridges
Actress: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side; Helen Mirren, The Last Station; Carey Mulligan, An Education; Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire; Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia.
Will win: Sandra Bullock
Alternate: Meryl Streep (and I think she's pretty close...)
My pick: Carey Mulligan
While I didn't hate Bullock's performance, nothing would make me happier than to see either Streep, Mulligan, or Sidibe walk up to the podium on Oscar night. All three are so much more accomplished than Bullock's star turn.
Supporting Actor: Matt Damon, Invictus; Woody Harrelson, The Messenger; Christopher Plummer, The Last Station; Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones; Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds.
Will Win: Christoph Waltz
Alternate: Woody Harrelson (but.... nope)
My pick: Christoph Waltz
Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, Nine; Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air; Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart; Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air; Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire.
Will Win: Mo'Nique
Alternate: Anna Kendrick (but....once again.....nope)
My pick: Mo'Nique
These two supporting categories have been locked the whole season. There's almost nothing that Waltz and Mo'nique haven't won. And good for them. Both are truly great performances and hard to argue with.
Directing: James Cameron, Avatar; Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker; Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds; Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire; Jason Reitman, Up in the Air.
Will win: Kathryn Bigelow, making history.
Alternate: James Cameron (her ex-husband)
My pick: Kathryn Bigelow
Foreign Language Film: Ajami, Israel; El Secreto de Sus Ojos, Argentina; The Milk of Sorrow, Peru; Un Prophete, France; The White Ribbon, Germany.
Will win: The White Ribbon
Alternate: El Secreto de Sus Oos
My pick: The White Ribbon (I've only seen this and El Secreto)
So Oscar has a track record of giving out this award to more "traditional" fare and ignoring the more critically acclaimed but edgy films (Waltz with Bashir, Pan's Labryinth). Based on this, I'm close to picking El Secreto de Sus Ojos. But I saw it and it wasn't that good, and The White Ribbon was great. The White Ribbon is also by a respected (if divisive) director and made with superior production values. Or it could go to Un Prophete. I'll predict The White Ribbon, but I might regret it.
Adapted Screenplay: Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell, District 9; Nick Hornby, An Education; Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche, "In the Loop"; Geoffrey Fletcher, "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire; Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air.
Will win: Up in the Air
Alternate: Precious
My pick: Up in the Air
Original Screenplay: Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker; Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds; Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman, The Messenger; Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man; Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Tom McCarthy, Up.
Will win: The Hurt Locker
Alternate: Inglorious Basters
My pick: A Serious Man
This is maybe my toughest pick. I really think it's neck and neck. Even though I think Tarantino is a very strong contender, I'm picking The Hurt Locker because I think it will win Best Picture and, more often than not, one of the screenplay awards matches up.
Animated Feature Film: Coraline; Fantastic Mr. Fox; The Princess and the Frog; The Secret of Kells; Up.
Will win: Up
Alternate: Fantastic Mr. Fox
My pick: Coraline
Art Direction: Avatar, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus Nine, Sherlock Holmes, The Young Victoria.
Will win: Avatar
Alternate: Sherlock Holems
My pick: Avatar (the only one I've seen)
Cinematography: Avatar, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The White Ribbon.
Will win: The Hurt Locker
Alternate: Avatar
My pick: The White RIbbon
This is another tough call, will they go for the edgy handheld cameras, or the digital/live action mash-up? I'm thinking the voters won't see Avatar as traditional enough cinematography to give it the win.
Sound Mixing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Star Trek, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.
Will win: Avatar
Alternate: The Hurt Locker
My pick: The Hurt Locker
Sound Editing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Star Trek, Up.
Will win: Avatar
Alternate: The Hurt Locker
My pick: The Hurt Locker
Another tough call between the frontrunners. They could go for big-budget sci-fi or realistic war film.
Original Score: Avatar, James Horner; Fantastic Mr. Fox, Alexandre Desplat; The Hurt Locker, Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders; Sherlock Holmes, Hans Zimmer; Up, Michael Giacchino.
Will win: Up
Alternate: Avatar
My pick: Up
Original Song: Almost There from The Princess and the Frog, Randy Newman; Down in New Orleans from The Princess and the Frog, Randy Newman; Loin de Paname from Paris 36, Reinhardt Wagner and Frank Thomas; Take It All from Nine, Maury Yeston; The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart) from Crazy Heart, Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett.
Will win: The Weary Kind
Alternate: Almost There
My pick : The Weary Kind
Costume: Bright Star, Coco Before Chanel, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Nine, The Young Victoria.
Will win: The Young Victoria
Alternate: Bright Star
My pick: Bright Star (this would make be very happy)
Documentary Feature: Burma VJ, The Cove, Food, Inc. The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers, Which Way Home.
Will win: The Cove
Alternate: Food, Inc.
My pick: Haven't seen any
Documentary (short subject): China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province, The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner, The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant, Music by Prudence, Rabbit a la Berlin.
Will win: The Tears of Sichuan Province
Alternate: The Last Truck
My pick: Haven't seen them
Film Editing: Avatar, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire.
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Alternate: Avatar
My pick: The Hurt Locker
Makeup: Il Divo, Star Trek, The Young Victoria.
Will win: Star Trek
Alternate: The Young Victoria
My pick: Star Trek (only one I've seen)
Animated Short Film: French Roast, Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty, The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte), Logorama, A Matter of Loaf and Death.
Will win: A Matter of Loaf and Death
Alternate: The Lady and the Reaper
My pick: A Matter of Loaf and Death
Live Action Short Film: The Door, Instead of Abracadabra, Kavi, Miracle Fish, The New Tenants.
Will win: The Door
Alternate: Kavi
My pick: Miracle Fish
Visual Effects: Avatar, District 9, Star Trek.
Will win: Avatar
Alternate: Star Trek
My pick: Avatar
Definitely the easiest call of the night!
Thursday, March 4, 2010
Reviewing the Shorts: A Conversation
Rebecca:
I didn't notice right away how much this year's nominees are about death and violence, probably because the tone tended more towards dark humor and. 'The Lady and the Reaper' is about an old woman who wants to die, but is filmed as a slapstick battle between the grim reaper and a heroic doctor for her soul. 'Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty' is a fairytale turned into a rant about old age. 'Logorama' features a murderous Ronald McDonald taking Big Boy as a hostage, as well as an earthquake ripping part of California off of the coast. 'A Matter of Loaf and Death' is about a serial killer who murders bakers, and Wallace might be the next target. 'French Roast' is the only short that doesn't deal directly with death - it's about a guy who forgot his wallet sitting in a cafe.
First things first: I love the look of stop-motion so much more than computer animation, it's hard for me to be unbiased about 'A Matter of Loaf and Death.' There's so much character and nuance that comes out of stop-motion, whereas the computer animation in 'French Roast', 'The Lady and the Reaper', and 'Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty' starts to all look the same. 'Logorama' was an eyesore, but that's part of the point, as everything is constructed out of corporate logos.
I enjoyed 'Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty', 'French Roast', and 'The Lady and the Reaper' (in descending order). In addition to the similar CG visual styles, they all consist of a simple concept made into a humorous short film of 6-8 minutes. The reason 'Granny O'Grimm' was my favorite of those three was the great vocal performance at the center of it, and the visual contrast in styles between the grandmother/child framework and the Sleeping Beauty story itself. 'French Roast' and 'The Lady and the Reaper' were enjoyable enough, but didn't really stick with me.
I definitely noticed the death right away in the movies right away. It's interesting because I wouldn't say that this year's Best Picture nominees are any more interested in death than past nominees. What's with all the animators?
What do you think will win? ‘A Matter of Loaf and Death’ definitely has the most (and by far the longest running time) going for it.
Rebecca
I agree about 'Logorama.' It was a fun concept, but stretched out for too long. If you have a concept for your movie, keep it short - like 'The Lady and the Reaper.' I also agree that 'French Roast' wasn't particularly special, although I felt the same way about 'The Lady and the Reaper' - I think I liked it more up until the point where the symbolic battle for the lady's soul turned into a physical chase, complete with crazy music and zany hijinks, like an old-school Warner Brothers cartoon. It redeemed itself when she took things into her own hands.
I did see the 'highly commended' shorts (I had also already seen 'Partly Cloudy'). I'm surprised 'Partly Cloudy' didn't make it, especially since I think it avoided the pitfalls of CG animation - Pixar really goes to great lengths to give their productions, shorts and features, the kind of texture and detail that is lost with a lot of CG animation. 'The Kinematograph' was pretty good, I especially liked the first and last longer tracking shots through the streets. I liked the hand-drawn animation of 'The Runaway', but agree that it was mean-spirited.
As for 'A Matter of Loaf and Death', I don't like it quite as well as some of the other Wallace & Grommit shorts, but I don't see it losing on Oscar night. First of all, if you look at the winners from the past few years, they tend to be stop-motion or hand-drawn, not computer animation, often leading to surprises in the awards. Whoever is going to those screenings and voting appreciates the hand-made touch. Secondly, although some folks have predicted that voters will feel that Nick Park has been awarded enough, there's not a clear alternative that I think will pull enough votes away. Some people are predicting 'Logorama', but I think (and hope) that is not the case. I think it's not the case because it's computer animation, and not pleasant to look at, and also because, as I was leaving, I overheard some folks complaining that it was 'too violent'. I hope it's not winning because I think the concept of the film was played out well before it ended. However, it could end up winning if voters decide it's edgy to point out that we live in a corporate culture.
I'm going to go with: will win - 'A Matter of Loaf and Death', should win - 'A Matter of Loaf and Death', and possible spoiler - 'Logorama'.
Ben
You're right about ‘The Lady and the Reaper’. The chase scene was definitely not up to the beginning or end of the movie. I guess I just liked the concept well enough overall that the movie impressed me. I also agree that my favorite parts (at least animation-wise) of ‘The Kinematograph’ were the tracking shots, although I'm a sucker for a good tracking shot in live-action films as well (Magnolia, Atonement, Children of Men).
It's interesting to think about ‘Logorama’ being "too violent." I myself am not too squeamish about violence in live-action films. It did seem overly graphic to me in this movie, maybe because most animated films don't really aim for quasi-realistic, blood and guts violence. I think it can work in a movie like "Waltz with Bashir," where the movie has a clear point, but otherwise I myself am a bit put off by it.
For me, I'm going to agree with you on the will win/should win for "A Matter of Loaf and Death." I do think they'll reward Nick Park with his third award in this category. I'll break a little and say the possible spoiler is ‘The Lady and the Reaper.’
Live Action Shorts
Ben
After that, my favorite was ‘Instead of Abracadabra,’ a sort of Swedish Napoleon Dynamite about a 25-year-old amateur magician who still lives with his parents. This was shown last, and you could tell the audience ate up the chance for some laughter.
‘Kavi’ and ‘The Door’ were well-made, but not surprising or all that interesting. Kavi actually seemed a touch too reminiscent of Slumdog Millionaire. I think it even had a song by the composer from Slumdog. The Door, about the Chernobyl disaster and its affect on one family, was beautifully made but, again, a little familiar.
‘The New Tenants’ started out strong, with some funny repartee between the gay couple who just moved into an apartment. It gets a little too "wacky" for me, though, and I hated the ending.
Rebecca
I also hated the end of 'The New Tenants'! I had mixed feelings about all of them except for 'Instead of Abracadabra', which I liked all of, and 'The Door', which I liked none of.
'Kavi' and 'The Door' suffered from being just about miserable circumstances, with no interesting perspective on what was going on. They were issue movies that beat you over the head with a message, and nothing else. 'The Door' didn't give me any reason to care about the characters, and I felt like it was a real failure that it did not explain the significance of the door that the father went back to steal. I enjoyed the scenes with Kavi's family at home, and I liked Kavi's final act of resistance when he was walking on the clay bricks. I wanted the movie to have more of those elements in it - something to make the characters interesting people rather than tools for a lecture.
I liked the relationship between the two main characters in 'The New Tenants'. From that opening speech, with the set-up arriving after the punchline, their relationship was portrayed so clearly - these two people who love each other dearly but find each other insufferable sometimes. The other aspects of the film I could take or leave, and I suppose they had to have a plot in there, but I was not crazy about it. As I said, I hated the ending, but I appreciate it in a way because they obviously did not know how to end it and decided to go with something completely off the wall and fanciful.
'Instead of Abracadabra' was great. I was thinking of GOB from 'Arrested Development' throughout the whole thing, not only because a bad magician was the main character, but because the way they used the cuts to add humor reminded me of 'AD' and '30 Rock' a bit. I also liked the tail end with the flower bouquet - reminding us that he's a bad magician made it less formulaic than just having a heroic ending where the anti-hero ends up triumphant.
I didn't love 'Miracle Fish' as much as you did. I appreciate that it went in unexpected directions, and the ending (from when he hears the phone ringing and goes to answer it on) was fantastic. I did not find it very compelling up to that point, I didn't really feel like I had much reason to care about the kid. I like the unpredictability, though, and the end was definitely emotional.
Ben
OK, you summed up my thoughts on 'Kavi" and 'The Door' quite well, although I perhaps liked 'The Door" a touch more than you did. The final image of the bricks was certainly the most powerful part of 'Kavi.' But yes, they both screamed issue movie to me. At least the other 3 were trying something different. As for 'The Door,' I saw that it was well crafted and I was interested in the first few minutes before we really found out the topic of the movie. When it came to the sad scenes, though, I had almost no emotions and actually felt kind of guilty. I think this is a failure on the part of the filmmakers in not making the audience care about the characters.
I also thought of Gob while watching 'Instead of Abracadabra.' The movie had a really great tone, where you cared about the character but it was really unsentimental at the same time. I can see your point about the beginning of 'Miracle Fish' but I actually liked it the whole way. While the ending was definitely the best part, I was intrigued to see where the movie was headed the whole time.
What will win? I hate to say it, but I think it will be "The Door." It's well-made and about a serious subject. Isn't that the Academy's cup of tea? You could say the same about "Kavi," but I think they might not vote for it because it does seem so similar to "Slumdog." It would be awesome if they went for "Instead of Abracadabra," but I don't think comedy is their preferred genre. As for "The New Tenants," I don't really see it winning, but maybe I'm wrong. I do think "Miracle Fish" might have a shot. It wouldn't be absolutely shocked to see any of the movies win.
Will Win: The Door
Possible Spoiler: Kavi
Should Win: Miracle Fish
Rebecca
'Miracle Fish' is definitely the one that has grown most in my mind since seeing it, and I would like to see it again. I would like to see it, or 'Instead of Abacadabra' win. I know I'm being harsh on 'The Door', but it was just so self-serious it almost played like a parody of a Oscar's tastes.
I'm having a hard time getting a handle on predictions for this group. I could see any of them winning, really. 'Kavi' and 'The Door' have the serious issues, and we know that Oscar likes Big Issues better than interesting filmmaking or inventive stories (see last year's win in this category - 'Toyland', the least interesting of the bunch). I could see 'The New Tenants' getting in because it's supposedly edgy, and the fact that it features some recognizable faces doesn't hurt. I think 'Instead of Abacadabra' and 'Miracle Fish', our respective favorites, are not really in contention, though, unless some vote-splitting happens.
I do hold out some hope that this category could reward good filmmaking, since Martin McDonagh and Andrea Arnold have both won for shorts in the past, and you have to go to a screening to actually vote. This year's group is just fairly weak, and even though I liked 'Instead of Abacadabra' a lot, I don't think it can overcome 'The Door's Oscar baitiness.
Will win: 'The Door'
Possible spoiler: 'The New Tentants'
Should win: 'Instead of Abacadabra'
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Special Mother-in-Law Guest Blog: Ranking the 10
Since I've made it through all 10 movies, I thought I'd take the chance to imagine filling out my own preferential ballot. As an added bonus, I have a special guest who has also seen all 10 movies: Barb, my wonderful movie-loving mother-in-law. We actually first bonded over our shared dislike for Sandra Bullock, so this is an interesting year for us to take a look at the Oscars. Without further ado...