Oscar Predictions

Oscar Predictions

So, here I go. It's always a tough choice on how to predict. After I pick these (I'm also in a very competitive Oscar pool), I always second-guess myself. There are some cakewalks this year, and also some tough calls. I'll list my pick, the next in line, and who I would pick. Please check back on my blog during the Oscar ceremony. I'll be live-blogging.

Without further ado. The winners will (or might) be......

Best Picture (starting this year, 10 nominees): Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air.

Will win: The Hurt Locker

Alternate: Avatar

My pick: A Serious Man

This has been an up-and-down season. First Up in the Air was the frontrunner, then Avatar, then The Hurt Locker. Then The Hurt Locker started getting some backlash. I'm still predicting it, though. With the new preferential ballot (basically Instant Runoff Voting), I think The Hurt Locker will have more widespread support. I don't know anyone who saw it and didn't think it was great.

Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart; George Clooney, Up in the Air; Colin Firth, A Single Man; Morgan Freeman, Invictus; Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker.

Will win: Jeff Bridges

Alternate: Jeremy Renner

My pick: Jeff Bridges

Actress: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side; Helen Mirren, The Last Station; Carey Mulligan, An Education; Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire; Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia.

Will win: Sandra Bullock

Alternate: Meryl Streep (and I think she's pretty close...)

My pick: Carey Mulligan

While I didn't hate Bullock's performance, nothing would make me happier than to see either Streep, Mulligan, or Sidibe walk up to the podium on Oscar night. All three are so much more accomplished than Bullock's star turn.

Supporting Actor: Matt Damon, Invictus; Woody Harrelson, The Messenger; Christopher Plummer, The Last Station; Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones; Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds.

Will Win: Christoph Waltz

Alternate: Woody Harrelson (but.... nope)

My pick: Christoph Waltz

Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, Nine; Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air; Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart; Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air; Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire.

Will Win: Mo'Nique

Alternate: Anna Kendrick (but....once again.....nope)

My pick: Mo'Nique

These two supporting categories have been locked the whole season. There's almost nothing that Waltz and Mo'nique haven't won. And good for them. Both are truly great performances and hard to argue with.

Directing: James Cameron, Avatar; Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker; Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds; Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire; Jason Reitman, Up in the Air.

Will win: Kathryn Bigelow, making history.

Alternate: James Cameron (her ex-husband)

My pick: Kathryn Bigelow

Foreign Language Film: Ajami, Israel; El Secreto de Sus Ojos, Argentina; The Milk of Sorrow, Peru; Un Prophete, France; The White Ribbon, Germany.

Will win: The White Ribbon

Alternate: El Secreto de Sus Oos

My pick: The White Ribbon (I've only seen this and El Secreto)

So Oscar has a track record of giving out this award to more "traditional" fare and ignoring the more critically acclaimed but edgy films (Waltz with Bashir, Pan's Labryinth). Based on this, I'm close to picking El Secreto de Sus Ojos. But I saw it and it wasn't that good, and The White Ribbon was great. The White Ribbon is also by a respected (if divisive) director and made with superior production values. Or it could go to Un Prophete. I'll predict The White Ribbon, but I might regret it.

Adapted Screenplay: Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell, District 9; Nick Hornby, An Education; Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche, "In the Loop"; Geoffrey Fletcher, "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire; Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air.

Will win: Up in the Air

Alternate: Precious

My pick: Up in the Air

Original Screenplay: Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker; Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds; Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman, The Messenger; Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man; Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Tom McCarthy, Up.

Will win: The Hurt Locker

Alternate: Inglorious Basters

My pick: A Serious Man

This is maybe my toughest pick. I really think it's neck and neck. Even though I think Tarantino is a very strong contender, I'm picking The Hurt Locker because I think it will win Best Picture and, more often than not, one of the screenplay awards matches up.

Animated Feature Film: Coraline; Fantastic Mr. Fox; The Princess and the Frog; The Secret of Kells; Up.

Will win: Up

Alternate: Fantastic Mr. Fox

My pick: Coraline

Art Direction: Avatar, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus Nine, Sherlock Holmes, The Young Victoria.

Will win: Avatar

Alternate: Sherlock Holems

My pick: Avatar (the only one I've seen)

Cinematography: Avatar, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The White Ribbon.

Will win: The Hurt Locker

Alternate: Avatar

My pick: The White RIbbon

This is another tough call, will they go for the edgy handheld cameras, or the digital/live action mash-up? I'm thinking the voters won't see Avatar as traditional enough cinematography to give it the win.

Sound Mixing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Star Trek, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.

Will win: Avatar

Alternate: The Hurt Locker

My pick: The Hurt Locker

Sound Editing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Star Trek, Up.

Will win: Avatar

Alternate: The Hurt Locker

My pick: The Hurt Locker

Another tough call between the frontrunners. They could go for big-budget sci-fi or realistic war film.

Original Score: Avatar, James Horner; Fantastic Mr. Fox, Alexandre Desplat; The Hurt Locker, Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders; Sherlock Holmes, Hans Zimmer; Up, Michael Giacchino.

Will win: Up

Alternate: Avatar

My pick: Up

Original Song: Almost There from The Princess and the Frog, Randy Newman; Down in New Orleans from The Princess and the Frog, Randy Newman; Loin de Paname from Paris 36, Reinhardt Wagner and Frank Thomas; Take It All from Nine, Maury Yeston; The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart) from Crazy Heart, Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett.

Will win: The Weary Kind

Alternate: Almost There

My pick : The Weary Kind

Costume: Bright Star, Coco Before Chanel, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Nine, The Young Victoria.

Will win: The Young Victoria

Alternate: Bright Star

My pick: Bright Star (this would make be very happy)

Documentary Feature: Burma VJ, The Cove, Food, Inc. The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers, Which Way Home.

Will win: The Cove

Alternate: Food, Inc.

My pick: Haven't seen any

Documentary (short subject): China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province, The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner, The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant, Music by Prudence, Rabbit a la Berlin.

Will win: The Tears of Sichuan Province

Alternate: The Last Truck

My pick: Haven't seen them

Film Editing: Avatar, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire.

Will Win: The Hurt Locker

Alternate: Avatar

My pick: The Hurt Locker

Makeup: Il Divo, Star Trek, The Young Victoria.

Will win: Star Trek

Alternate: The Young Victoria

My pick: Star Trek (only one I've seen)

Animated Short Film: French Roast, Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty, The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte), Logorama, A Matter of Loaf and Death.

Will win: A Matter of Loaf and Death

Alternate: The Lady and the Reaper

My pick: A Matter of Loaf and Death

Live Action Short Film: The Door, Instead of Abracadabra, Kavi, Miracle Fish, The New Tenants.

Will win: The Door

Alternate: Kavi

My pick: Miracle Fish

Visual Effects: Avatar, District 9, Star Trek.

Will win: Avatar

Alternate: Star Trek

My pick: Avatar

Definitely the easiest call of the night!