First Oscar Predictions

As Oscar season kicks off with tons of precursor awards (the long and short of it-The Social Network is dominating), I thought it was time for my first stab at some predictions. Here's my current predictions for each of the major categories, in order of likelihood. I'll try to update them every couple of weeks, and things become a bit clearer.

Picture

The Social Network

The King's Speech

The Fighter

Inception

True Grit

The Kids Are All Right

Toy Story 3

Black Swan

The Town

Winter's Bone

Actor

Colin Firth, The King's Speech

James Franco, 127 Hours

Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Robert Duvall, Get Low

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Actress

Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Lesley Manville, Another Year

Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Fighter

Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

Jeremy Renner, The Town

Supporting Actress

Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

Amy Adams, The Fighter

Dianne Weist, Rabbit Hole

Director

David Fincher, The Social Network

Christopher Nolan, Inception

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit