Final Oscar Predictions

Oscar nomination morning is tomorrow (kind of like Christmas for me....) so it's time to do my final predictions.

This year is trickier than most, I think.  There are a few categories that feel really unsettled.   I'll list what I predict in order of likelihood.  We'll see how I do!

Picture

The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball

Possibilities
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Bridesmaids
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

This is obviously the hardest to predict as, due to some sort of complex new rules, there will be anywhere between 5-10 nominees.  I'm going with 6 for now, although I almost went with 7 and put in Dragon Tattoo.

Actor

George Clooney, The Descendants
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Possibilities
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Michael Shannon, Take Shelter
Damian Bechir, A Better Life

The top 4 I'm predicting have shown up the most often on the precursors.  The Top 3 are surefire, the last 2 I'm not so sure.  Is Shame too explicit? Will they really nominate Leo for a movie nobody loved?  Will the Brits in the Academy nominate Oldman?  Will Shannon surprise, as he did for Revolutionary Road a few years ago?  Perhaps against my better judgment, I'm betting against Leo in a Eastwood biopic and instead going with Gary Oldman for the last spot.  We shall see.

Actress

Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Viola Davis, The Help
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Possibilities
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia
Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids

The 5 I'm predicting are kind of the consensus list.  In a really strong year for Best Actress contenders, I'm wondering if we won't see a surprise.  I won't be too surprised if Mara shows up since she is getting lots of buzz.  I will be thrilled if Theron or Olsen somehow makes it in.

Supporting Actor

Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Albert Brooks, Drive
Nick Nolte, Warrior

Possibilities
Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris
Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life
Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
Ben Kingsley, Hugo
Viggo Mortenson, A Dangerous Method

As with Best Actress, I'm playing it safe and going with the consensus list.  I feel like someone unexpected might make it through though.  I'm most hoping for Stoll (an amazing Ernest Hemingway) or Pitt (giving him 2 nominations).

Supporting Actress

Octavia Spencer, The Help
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

Possibilites
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Carey Mulligan, Shame
Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus

This seems very much like a 6-person race.  I think either McTeer or Woodley is out.  I'm guessing Woodley gets left out.

Director

Michel Hazanivicus, The Artist
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Possibilities
David Fincher, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Tate Taylor, The Help
Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive
Asghar Fahadi, A Separation

Even though I'm not predicting The Tree of Life (my favorite of the year) for a Best Picture nomination, I still think Malick will make it through here.  I'm hoping that at least the director's branch will see what a true directorial vision The Tree of Life was.  Wishful thinking perhaps, but my fingers are crossed.

Original Screenplay

Midnight in Paris
The Artist
Bridesmaids
50/50
A Separation

Possibilities
Win Win
Young Adult
Margin Call

Adapted Screenplay

The Descendants
Moneyball
The Help
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Possibilites
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
The Ides of March