A great year in film leads to lots of question marks in the Oscar nomiantions. I've divided each major category into locks (meaning there's no way they miss...although don't forget Affleck missing out last year on Best Director), Very Likely, Possibilities, and Dark Horses. I'm doing my best to list everything that has any chance of getting in. Without further ado, here are my best shots, in order of likelihood...
Best Picture
Locks
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. American Hustle
3. Gravity
Very Likely
4. Captain Phillips
5. Nebraska
Possible
6. Dallas Buyers Club
7. Her
8. Wolf of Wall Street
Saving Mr. Banks
Inside Llewyn Davis
Philomena
Blue Jasmine
Dark Horses
Lee Daniels' The Butler
Fruitvale Station
With the new rules, we could go anywhere between 5-10 nominees. The last two years it's been 9, but I'll predict 8 this year. I am REALLY crossing my fingers Llewyn Davis makes it, despite missing many precursors.
Best Actor
Locks
1. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
2. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Very Likely
3. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
4. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Possible
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Wolf of Wall Street
Robert Redford, All is Lost
Dark Horses
Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Joaquin Phoenix, Her
Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
This category is chock full of contenders, and in a weaker year every single possibility would have been a shoo-in. If you had asked me a week ago, I would have kept Redford in, but Leo is coming on strong and even those who don't like Wolf of Wall Street tend to like Leo's performance.
Best Actress
Locks
1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Very Likely
3. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
4. Judi Dench, Philomena
Possible
5. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Dark Horses
Brie Larson, Short Term 12
Adele Exarchopolous, Blue is the Warmest Color
Julia Louis-Dreyfuss, Enough Said
Another intense competition over that last slot. Adams beat Streep at the Globes, but Meryl gets in for just about everything she does. If it goes as I predicted, this will be a category of all former Oscar winners over 40.
Best Supporting Actor
Locks
1. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
2. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Very Likely
3. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Possible
4. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
5. Daniel Bruhl, Rush
James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Jonah Hill, Wolf of Wall Street
Dark Horses
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Will Forte, Nebraska
James Franco, Spring Breakers
Another confusing category in those last couple slots. My heart says to put in Gandolfini in a movie I loved, but my head tells me Daniel Bruhl has hit all the right precursors.
Best Supporting Actress
Locks
1. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
2. Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Very Likely
3. June Squibb, Nebraska
4. Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
Possible
5. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
Dark Horses
Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
Margot Robbie, Wolf of Wall Street
Scarlett Johannson, Her (This would be a BIG shocker since it's a voice performance)
If Blue Jasmine does better than expected, expect to see Sally Hawkins here. As it is, I'll stick with Julia.
Best Director
Locks
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
2. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Very Likely
3. David O. Russell, American Hustle
Possible
4. Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
5. Spike Jonze, Her
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Martin Scorsese, Wolf of Wall Street
Dark Horses
Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
Jean-Marc Vallee, Dallas Buyers Club
Another nail-biter for that fifth slot. Stats would say Scorsese, but I'm guessing Her and Nebraska were liked better than WoWs, so one of those will make it instead.
Best Original Screenplay
Locks
1. American Hustle
2. Nebraska
3. Her
Possible
4. Blue Jasmine
5. Inside Llewyn Davis
Gravity
Dallas Buyers Club
Enough Said
Saving Mr. Banks
One place where Llewyn Davis can't miss right? Well, it probably can but I'm guessing the slightly more cerebral writers' branch will go for it over Dallas Buyers Club or Gravity.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Locks
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Captain Phillips
Very Likely
3. Before Midnight
4. Philomena
Possible
5. Wolf of Wall Street
August: Osage County
Short Term 12
The Spectacular Now
If the Wolf of Wall Street gets a Best Picture nod (as most are predicting), it stands to reason it will score here as well. A great surprise would be if Short Term 12 (see it now if you haven't!) snuck in.
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