Final Nomination Predictions

The Oscar nominations are tomorrow and it's time for my annual predictions. An unpredictable year with some big unknowns, but here are my best guesses. I've divided into "locks," very likely, possible, and contenders, listed in order of likelihood.


Look for the nomination leaders to be Birdman, The Imitation Game, and maybe The Grand Budapest Hotel.  Boyhood is still our likely winner, but won't get many technical/craft nominations.




A few big questions for tomorrow:
-Did the lack of precursor support for Selma combined with the historical controversy (the role of LBJ) really hurt Selma, once a presumed major player?
-Is American Sniper actually a major contender? (Personal note.... did the Oscar race really need a late-breaking, mainstream Eastwood movie?)
-How much did the Academy like Gone Girl and Nightcrawler, two genre movies that aren't typical Oscar bait but have been doing well this season?



Picture

Locks
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. The Imitation Game

Very Likely
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. The Theory of Everything

Possible
6. Whiplash
7. Selma
8. American Sniper
9. Gone Girl
Nightcrawler
Foxcatcher
Unbroken
Into the Woods
Interstellar

While there could be anything between 5-10, I'm guessing we'll continue the 9 pattern of the last several years. After the first five, some really tough calls.   No matter what, how cool is it that a Wes Anderson movie is pretty much a lock??

Actor

Locks
1. Michael Keaton, Birdman
2. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Very Likely
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Possible
4. David Oyelowo, Selma
5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher
Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner

A category chock-full of contenders, and I think only two (one of whom will win) are 100% safe.  The surprise I am most hoping for is a Fiennes nomination, but I highly doubt it will happen.

Actress

Locks
1. Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
3. Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Very Likely
4. Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Possible
5. Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods

Certainly a weak category this year.  So much so that Aniston will probably get in for a movie that no one liked all that much and has barely opened.

Supporting Actor

Locks
1. J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
2. Edward Norton, Birdman
3. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
4. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

Very Likely
5. Robert Duvall, The Judge

Possible
Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice
Riz Ahmed, Nightcrawler
Tom Wilkinson, Selma
Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher (If they decide to switch categories)

A category with 4 amazing performances (the top 4) and not a hell of a lot else.

Supporting Actress

Locks
1. Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
2. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
3. Emma Stone, Birdman

Very Likely
4. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Possible
5. Rene Russo, Nightcrawler
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Laura Dern, Wild
Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer

My most risky pick this year is guessing Russo gets in. Nightcrawler has been doing well, and buzz around A Most Violent Year has been extremely quiet.

Director

Locks
1. Richard Linklater, Boyhood
2. Alejandro Guiterraz Innaritu, Birdman

Very Likely
3. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Possible
4. Morton Tyldum, The Imitation Game
5. Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Ava Duvernay, Selma
Clint Eastwood, American Sniper
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Tony Gilroy, Nightcrawler
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

Director is often the most interesting category. In 2012, presumed frontrunners Ben Affleck (Argo) and Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) were left out for indie directors Benh Zeitlan (Beasts of the Southern Wild) and Michael Haneke (Amour).  I'm guessing they'll give the indie slot to Chazelle.
These are always tough, so I could very well only get 3 out of 5.

Original Screenplay

Locks
1. Birdman
2. Boyhood
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel

Possible
4. Nightcrawler
5. Selma
Foxcatcher
Mr. Turner
A Most Violent Year
Ida
The LEGO Movie

Beyond the top 3, a category ripe for some interesting happenings, especially with Whiplash  moved to adapted. That last slot seems really tricky.

Adapted Screenplay

Locks
1. The Imitation Game
2. Gone Girl

Very Likely
3. Whiplash

Possible
4. The Theory of Everything
5. American Sniper
Wild
Inherent Vice
Unbroken
Guardians of the Galaxy

Somehow this seems easier to predict, at least is American Sniper is gaining momentum.