Final Nomination Predictions

After a long hiatus, the blog if back for it's seasonal busy season. It's Oscar nomination eve, and here are my predictions.

I only predict the big 8 categories.  You'll almost certainly see La La Land with the most nominations tomorrow, probably followed by Arrival and Moonlight.

Picture

Locks
1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea

Very Likely
4. Arrival
5. Lion
6. Hell or High Water

Possible
7. Hidden Figures
8. Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Silence
Nocturnal Animals
Loving
Jackie

The Academy has the choice to nominate between 5-10.  I'm guessing they'll go with 8-although I do feel like Fences is losing a little buzz.  If it does shake out this way, it will be a nice corrective to last year's "Oscar's so White."  My biggest hope for Oscar morning is that Hacksaw Ridge doesn't make it, so I don't have to see it (since I'm a Best Picture completist).

Actor

Locks
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington, Fences

Very Likely
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
5. Viggo Mortenson, Captain Fantastic

Possible
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Tom Hanks, Sully
Sunny Pawar, Lion
Michael Keaton, The Founder
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
Adam Driver, Paterson

More than any other category, these 5 feel really locked in, with Washington and Affleck as the two clearest leaders. Anything else will be a bit of a surprise.

Actress

Locks
1. Emma Stone, La La Land

Very Likely
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie

Possible
3. Amy Adams, Arrival
4. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Ruth Negga, Loving
Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
Viola Davis, Fences (if they move her to lead)

This category is so chock full of contenders, I'm really only confident in Emma Stone.  We have an acclaimed performance in a movie that's losing steam (Portman), a sci-fi performance (Adams), a foreign performance in a divisive movie (Huppert), a couple of well-loved veterans (Streep and Bening), a great new discovery (Negga), and a popular actress in a big hit (Henson). There's even a (very small) chance voters will move Viola Davis into the lead category.

Supporting Actor

Locks
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Very Likely
3. Dev Patel, Lion

Possible
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
Ben Foster, Hell or High Water
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
Liam Neeson, Silence
Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

Aaron Taylor-Johnson shocked just about everyone when he won the Golden Globe, so I'm betting it will be the rare Globe win that doesn't even get a nomination.

Supporting Actress

Locks
1. Viola Davis, Fences
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Possible
4. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
5. Nicole Kidman, Lion
Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures
Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women

I was really deliberating on that fifth spot. I think it's pretty likely we'll see a double nomination for Hidden Figures, but in the end I went with conventional wisdom and Nicole Kidman.

Director

Locks
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Very Likely
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
4. Dennis Villeneuve, Arrival

Possible
5. David McKenzie, Hell or High Water
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Garth Davis, Lion
Paul Verhoeven, Elle
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Denzel Washington, Fences
Pablo Lorrain, Jackie
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Jeff Nichols, Loving'

Director is a category that is open ripe with surprises. While Garth Davis made the DGA list, I think David McKenzie might sneak in for his well-liked Western.

Original Screenplay

Locks
1. Manchester by the Sea
2. Hell or High Water

Very Likely
3. La La Land

Possible
4. The Lobster
5. 20th Century Women
Captain Fantastic
Zootopia
Toni Erdman
Jackie
Elle
I, Daniel Blake
Hail, Caesar!

I'm really pulling for The Lobster here!

Adapted Screenplay

Locks
1. Moonlight
2. Arrival

Very Likely
3. Hidden Figues

Possible
4. Lion
5. Fences
Nocturnal Animals
Loving
Deadpool
Silence
Love and Friendship