It’s go time, so below are my predictions for who will win Oscars tomorrow, as well as runners up, who should win, and who deserved to get a nomination but missed.
I’m guessing La La Land will do quite well by its 14 nominations and win 9, the most Oscars of any movie in the past 13 years.. If it’s a REALLY good night, it could win 3 more (Original Screenplay, Costumes, Sound Editing) and win the most Oscars of any film ever, beating out The Return of the King, Titanic, and Ben-Hur.
I’m hoping this doesn’t happen. This was such a strong year for movies, it would be great for Oscars to spread the wealth with other well-loved movies like Arrival and Manchester by the Sea.
As it stands now, these are the only movies I’m predicting to win more than 1 award:
La La Land: 9 (Picture, Actress, Director, Cinematography, Production Design, Score, Song, Sound Mixing, Editing)
Moonlight: 2 (Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay)
Fences: 2 (Actor, Supporting Actress)
Here are my predictions:
BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Lion
Fences
La La Land
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Moonlight
Should Win: Moonlight
Should Have Been Here: The Lobster
Despite some online backlash, La La Land is an extremely likable film and plays right up the Academy’s alley. Moonlight is probably its closest competitor, and would make an incredibly deserving winner, but any win other than La La Land would be a shock.
BEST ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert - Elle
Ruth Negga - Loving
Natalie Portman - Jackie
Emma Stone - La La Land
Meryl Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins
Will Win: Emma Stone
Could Win: Isabelle Huppert
Should Win: Ruth Negga (although I haven’t seen Elle)
Should Have Been Here: Amy Adams, Arrival
Despite a strong lineup, I think this is a pretty easy win for Emma Stone. Her closest competition is probably Huppert.
BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck - Manchester By The Sea
Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling - La La Land
Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington - Fences
Will Win: Denzel Washington
Could Win: Casey Affleck
Should Win: Denzel Washington
Should Have Been Here: Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Probably the biggest standoff of the night, with Affleck and Washington dueling it out in two terrific performances. If it wasn’t for some of Casey’s personal baggage, I’d say he would win. As it is, I’m giving the slightest edge to Denzel, who could join a small group of actors who’ve won 3 Oscars.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis - Fences
Naomie Harris - Moonlight
Nicole Kidman - Lion
Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams - Manchester By The Sea
Will Win: Viola Davis
Could Win: No one else
Should Win: Viola Davis
Should Have Been Here: Lily Gladstone, Certain Women
Perhaps the biggest lock of the night. Viola will be one step closer to her EGOT (Emmy-Grammy-Oscar-Tony). Then we’ll just work on getting her a Grammy!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges - Manchester By The Sea
Dev Patel - Lion
Michael Shannon - Nocturnal Animals
Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Could Win: Dev Patel
Should Have Been Here: Andre Holland, Moonlight
It will probably be Ali, although this is a category that sometimes surprises, as it did last year when Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) beat Sylvester Stallone (Creed). If there’s a surprise, I think it will be Dev Patel, but I really hope not.
BEST DIRECTOR
Denis Villeneuve - Arrival
Mel Gibson - Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle - La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester By The Sea
Barry Jenkins - Moonlight
Will Win: Damien Chazelle
Could Win: Barry Jenkins
Should Win: Barry Jenkins
Should Have Been Here: Yorgos Lanthimos,The Lobster
At 32, Damien Chazelle will likely become the youngest best director winner.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Hell or High Water - Taylor Sheridan
La La Land - Damien Chazelle
The Lobster - Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou
Manchester By The Sea - Kenneth Lonergan
20th Century Women - Mike Mills
Will Win: Manchester by the Sea
Could Win: La La Land
Should Win: The Lobster
Should Have Been Here: Hail, Caesar!
This is one place I’m predicting the Academy will forgo La La Land and throw something to Manchester by the Sea.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival - Eric Heisserer
Fences - August Wilson
Hidden Figures - Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi
Lion - Luke Davis
Moonlight - Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney
Will Win: Moonlight
Could Win: Lion
Should Win: Moonlight
Should Have Been Here: Certain Women
A strong category, but Moonlight should rise above the competition.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Lion
Should Win: Moonlight
Should Have Been Here: Hail, Caesar!
La La Land’s distinctive cinematography, especially the bravura opening number on the freeway, will probably win enough votes to triumph in a stunning category.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Fire At Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
OJ, Made in America
13th
Will Win: OJ: Made in America
Could Win: 13th
Should Win: OJ: Made in America
Should Have Been Here: Weiner
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine - Denmark
A Man Called Ove - Sweden
The Salesman - Iran
Tanna - Australia
Toni Erdmann - Germany
Will Win: The Salesman
Could Win: Toni Erdmann
Probably a 3-way race between The Salesman, A Man Called Ove, and Toni Erdmann. Iranian director Ashgar Farhadi is taking the strong move of not traveling to the Oscars to protest the travel ban, which could have been just the right press at the right time to put him over the edge.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Moonlight
Should Win: Moonlight (or Jackie…. Or La La Land…. I love all 3)
Should Have Been Here: Arrival
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Audition (The Fools Who Dream) - La La Land
Cant Stop The Feeling - Trolls
City of Stars - La La Land
The Empty Chair - Jim: The James Foley Story
How Far I'll Go - Moana
Will Win: City of Stars
Could Win: How Far I’ll Go
Should Win: Audition
Should Have Been Here: “Drive it Like You Stole It,” Sing Street
With La La Land in the mix, Lin-Manuel will probably NOT win his EGOT this year. It’s OK, he’ll do it later.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Could Win: La La Land
Should Win: Arrival
One of the other rare categories La La Land might lose. They like war films and sci-fi here, so either Hacksaw Ridge or Arrival could give La La Land a loss.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Should Win: Arrival
Probably another 3-way race between La La Land, Hacksaw Ridge, and Arrival.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Will Win: Zootopia
Could Win: Moana
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar
La La Land
Passengers
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Arrival
Should Win: La La Land
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Will Win: The Jungle Book
Could Win: Doctor Strange
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Will Win: Jackie
Could ‘Win: La La Land
Should Win: Jackie
Modern-day films very rarely win this award, so I’m taking a chance that voters will go for the recreation of Jackie Kennedy’s gowns rather than La La Land’s modern-day duds.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear, Cider, and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper
Will Win: Piper
Could Win: Blind Vaysha
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe's Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
Will Win: The White Helmets
Could Win: Joe’s Violin
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Ennemis Interieurs
Le Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
Will Win: Ennemis Interieurs
Could Win: Timecode
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