Returning to my blog for posterity's sake!:
In order of likelihood.
Picture
Conclave
The Brutalist
Emelia Perez
Anora
Wicked
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part 2
The Substance
A Real Pain
Sing Sing
Possibilities
Nickel Boys
September 5
Challengers
All We Imagine as Light
I'm Still Here
The top 8 feel pretty set, with some room for surprises in those last 2 spots.
Director
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Sean Baker, Anora
Jacques Audiard, Emelia Perez
Edward Berger, Conclave
Coralie Faraget, The Substance
Possibilities
Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light
Dennis Villeneuve, Dune: Part 2
James Mangold, A Complete Unkown
Ramell Ross, Nickel Boys
Jon Chu, Wicked
I'll be shocked if I get this category right. I'm predicting someone big to miss, I just don't know who.
Actress
Demi Moore, The Substance
Mikey Madison, Anora
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emelia Perez
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Possibilities
Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door
A really tough category, especially that fifth slot.
Actor
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Daniel Craig, Queer
Possibilities
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Hugh Grant, Heretic
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
If not for the vote split, I'd predict Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice since Queer feels VERY weak. I think Craig might just barely squeak in.
Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldana, Emelia Perez
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Feliticy Jones, The Brutalist
Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Possibilities
Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Selena Gomez, Emelia Perez
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Aujuane Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
This is a very chaotic category. Other than the top 2, I have no idea what is happening! I'm betting that strong performances for Conclave, The Brutalist, and The Substance pull those actresses in.
Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Yura Borisov, Anora
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Possibilities
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Jonathan Bailey, Wicked
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Another fairly chaotic category, as I think almost everyone could miss other than Culkin. It's crazy to me that Maclin isn't safe.
Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Sing Sing
Emelia Perez
A Complete Unknown
Nickel Boys
Possibilities
Wicked
Dune: Part 2
I'm Still Here
The Room Next Door
The Piano Lesson
Nosferatu
The top 5 seem fairly clear, although there is always room for a surprise.
Original Screenplay
Anora
A Real Pain
The Brutalist
The Substance
Hard Truths
Possibilities
Challengers
All We Imagine As Light
September 5
A very clear top 4, with a few options for number 5.
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