I haven't seen several of the big contendors yet (The Reader, Doubt, Frost/Nixon), so I don't have a whole lot to say so far. I was most happy to see Richard Jenkins sneak in. I loved him in Six Feet Under and thought he was terrific in The Visitor. I was surprised/saddened by the snub for Sally Hawkins in Happy-Go-Lucky. She is definitely my favorite female performance of the year and it's too bad she didn't make the cut.
Looking at the nominations now, here's who I expect to win:
Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog
Actor: Sean Penn, Milk
Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
S. Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
S. Actress: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Original Screenplay: Milk
Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
So far it's looking fairly predictable, but I think there will be a real race for Actor (Penn vs. Rourke) and possibly Supporting Actress (Viola Davis vs. Cruz).