Final Oscar Predictions

Here we are on Oscar eve and it's finally time to put my chips down and pick the winners.  Some easy calls and some tough choices.  Here are my picks on who will win, who could win, and who should win.

For the rundown, I ended up picking The Artist for 5 categories, Hugo for 4, The Help for 2, and everything else for no more than 1.  This seems a little weak for such a strong Best Picture frontrunner as The Artist.  It could definitely pick up some others and go as high as 7.  Can't wait to see!

Best Picture

The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Will Win: The Artist
Could Win: Hugo
Should Win: The Tree of Life

The Artist is so far our in front, it's hard to even think of what movie might be second.  It's my third favorite of the list (after The Tree of Life and Moneyball), but won't be a bad choice at all.

Best Actor

Demian Bechir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Will Win: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Could Win: George Clooney, The Descendants
Should Win: Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Not a bad list.  I'm about evenly tied between Dujardin, Oldman, and Pitt for my preference.  If any of them win over Clooney I'll be happy.

Best Actress

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Will Win: Viola Davis, The Help
Could Win: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Should Win: Viola Davis, The Help

While I've seen all 5 Best Actor nominees, I've only seen The Help from this category.  Viola gave a tremendous performance in a popular Best Picture nominee and it seems like she has the heat.  One of these days Meryl will win another Oscar, but I don't think this is the year.

Supporting Actor

Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Will Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Could Win: Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Should Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Since they are both 82, either Plummer or von Sydow will set the record for oldest acting winner.  This one feels pretty sewn up for Plummer.

Supporting Actress

Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help

Will Win: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Could Win: Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Should Win: Jessica Chastain, The Help

Octavia has won almost everything all season, which is too bad since I think she's far from the best in The Help or in this category.  If both Viola and Spencer win, though, it will be the first time Best Actress and Supporting Actress will go to African-American women.

Director

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Will Win: Michel Hazanvicius, The Artist
Could Win: Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Should Win: Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Four well-known (or even legendary) American directors and a newcomer Frenchman, and guess who will win?

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Will Win: The Descendants
Could Win: Moneyball
Should Win: Moneyball

While I think this is the category where they'll reward The Descendants, I'm keeping fingers crossed they'll go with the stronger choice and reward the masterful screenplay of Moneyball, which made baseball statistics really fascinating.

Best Original Screenplay

The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation

Will Win: Midnight in Paris
Could Win: The Artist
Should Win: A Separation

Often my favorite category at the Oscars, another great lineup.  This is a tight one between likely Best Picture winner The Artist and the charming and popular Midnight in Paris.  I'm guessing they'll want to award Woody something for his biggest hit of all-time (even if he won't show up to accept it).

Best Art Direction

The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse

Will Win: Hugo
Could Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Should Win: Hugo

Hugo will win this for its amazing Paris train station.

Best Cinematography

The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Will Win: The Tree of Life
Could Win: Hugo
Should Win: The Tree of Life!!!

I'm betting that the Oscars can't help but notice some of the most amazing work ever and go with The Tree of Life.  

Best Costume Design

Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.

Will Win: Hugo
Could Win: The Artist
Should Win: Jane Eyre

I think this is another one they'll give to the visual splendor of Hugo.

Best Film Editing

The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball

Will Win: The Artist
Could Win: Hugo
Should Win: The Artist

Best Makeup

Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Iron Lady

Will Win: The Iron Lady
Could Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Should Win: Harry Potter... (haven't seen the other two)

Best Original Score

The Artist
The Adventures of Tintin
Hugo
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
War Horse

Will Win: The Artist
Could Win: Hugo
Should Win: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Without dialogue, the music plays an incredibly important role in The Artist, which I think gives it the win.

Best Song

"Man or Muppet" from The Muppets
"Real in Rio" from Rio

Will Win: "Man or Muppet"
Could Win: "Real in Rio""
Should Win: "Man or Muppet"

What a weird category with weird rules to get nominated.  While I liked the muppets song, it's not even the best one from the movie.

Best Sound Editing

Drive
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: The Dark Side of the Moon
War Horse

Will Win: Hugo
Could Win: War Horse
Should Win: Drive

The only category where Drive, one of the most memorable movies of the year, was nominated.  I think it's a battle between Hugo and War Horse.

Best Sound Mixing

The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: The Dark Side of the Moon
War Horse

Will Win: Hugo
Could Win: War Horse
Should Win: War Horse

Another Hugo vs. War Hose race.

Best Visual Effects

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: The Dark Side of the Moon

Will Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Could Win: Hugo
Should Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Best Animated Film

Chico & Rita
A Cat in Paris
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango

Will Win: Rango
Could Win: Puss in Boots
Should Win: Rango (Only one I've seen....and not that good).

Without the usual Pixar treasure, an incredibly weak category.

Best Documentary Feature

Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated

Will Win: Undefeated
Could Win: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

Haven't caught any of these this year, but I've heard Undefeated is the most emotional of the bunch, which often points you to your winner.

Foreign Language Film

Bullhead
Footnote
In Darkness
Monsieur Lazhar
A Separation

Will Win: A Separation
Could Win: Monsieur Lazhar
Should Win: A Separation

This category (where voters must see all 5), has a history of making odd choices.  I think A Separation's brilliance will be difficult for even the Academy of deny.

Animated Short

La Luna
Dimanche/Sunday
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lesmore
A Morning Stroll
Wildlife

Will Win: Mr. Morris Lesmore
Could Win: La Luna

Documentary Short

The Barber of Birmingham
God is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Will Win: Saving Face
Could Win: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Live Action Short

Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic

Will Win: Tuba Atlantic
Could Win: The Shore