And here they are! An exciting nomination morning with a few big surprises and a lot that's of interest. The oldest and the youngest Best Actress nominees ever, the first foreign film in quite some time in the Best Picture lineup, and some notable snubs for Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow. While I honestly had some issues with Beasts of the Southern Wild, it did amazingly well for a micro-budget indie, and I don't begrudge it any of its nominations. Maybe it's even time for a rewatch.
This year, I went 37/44, or 84%, in the major categories that I predicted. I was spot on in Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay, and only missed 2 in Director (along with every other pundit). The last two years I did 87%, but I'm actually happy the awards were a bit more predictable this year.
Picture
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
8/9. I was correct that there would be 9 nominees, although Amour got in instead of Moonrise Kingdom. I do wish Moonrise had been able to make it. Such a fun and charming movie. I have to catch up on Amour, Django, and ZDT before Oscar night.
Will Win: Lincoln. It seems pretty obvious.
Dark Horse: Silver Linings Playbook. It did VERY well today.
Actor
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
4/5. I thought they would go with John Hawkes for The Sessions and not Joaquin. SO GLAD Joaquin made it. Love or hate The Master, Joaquin is incredible. Not a bad lineup at all.
Will Win: Day Lewis
Dark Horse: Jackman?? I don't see anyone else taking this.
Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Quevenzhane Wallis, Beast of the Southern Wild
4/5. I picked Marion Cotillard in Rust and Bone over Wallis. What a cool lineup-the oldest actress ever nominated (Wallis of course) and the oldest (Riva).
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Dark Horse: Emmanuelle Riva. Amour also did very well today, and I hear she's simply incredible.
Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Robert de Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
5/5. Pretty proud of my predicting in this category. This category is ALL former winners-which I believe is a first in any category in Oscar history.
Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones
Dark Horse: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
4/5. I picked Ann Dowd for Compliance, and didn't even have Weaver on my runners-up list (an oversight, I know). That means someone from Silver Linings is in every single acting category.
Will Win: Anne Hathaway
Dark Horse: Sally Field
Director
Michael Haneke, Amour
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Benh Zeitlan, Beasts of the Southern Wild
3/5. Like most, I totally botched this category. They shockingly left our Hollywood golden boy Ben Afflect (Argo) and critically lauded Kathryn Bigelow (ZDT) for the Austrian auteur (Haneke) and a rookie (Zeitlan). What an interesting lineup.
Will Win: Steven Spielberg
Dark Horse: Ang Lee
Original Screenplay
Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
4/5. They went with Flight over The Master. Guess they just liked the acting in The Master, as it got nods for its 3 stars.
Will Win: Zero Dark Thiry
Dark Horse: Amour (or Django?) This seems competitive to me.
Adapted Screenplay
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
5/5. A perfect category for me.
Will Win: Lincoln
Dark Horse: Silver Linings Playbook
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
Final Nomination Predictions
Picture
Lincoln
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Les MiserablesSilver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom
Possibilities
Amour
Skyfall
The Master
The one year we had the strange between 5-and-10 rules (last year), gave us 9 nominees, so I'm going with that again. The top 6 through Life of Pi are solid, but after that a lot could happen. We shall see.
Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Denzel Washington, Flight
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Possibilities
Joaquin Phoneix, The Master
Jean Louis-Trintignant, Amour
Ben Affleck, Argo
This is a fierce 6-man race. Since this category has a history of leaving out my favorite male performance of the year (Michael Fassbender in Shame, Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine), I'm guessing they'll leave out Joaquin, but I really hope not.
Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark ThirtyNaomi Watts, The Impossible
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Possibilites
Quevenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea
I'm really not sure what to expect from this category. Will they really nominate two French actresses? Will they make history and go with the youngest ever nominee with Wallis? We shall see.
Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Alan Arkin, ArgoRobert de Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Possibilities
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables
Samuel L. Jackson, Django Unchained
That fifth spot is a doozy-any of the possibilities could almost as easily get in as Waltz, but Django does seem to have some heat right now.
Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, Les MiserablesSally Field, Lincoln
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Amy Adams, The Master
Ann Dowd, Compliance
Possibilities
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Judi Dench, Skyfall
Samantha Barks, Les Miserables
Another confusing blur for the last spot. I've heard Dowd has been campaigning hard...
Director
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Possibilities
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Michael Haneke, Amour
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
I really hope Hooper gets left out for his oddly directed movie. I didn't hate Les Mis, but its direction certainly wasn't its strength.
Original Screenplay
Zero Dark Thirty
Moonrise Kingdom
Django Unchained
Amour
The Master
Possibilites
Looper
Flight
Middle of Nowhere
Adapted Screenplay
Lincoln
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Possibilities
Perks of Being a Wallflower
The Sessions
Les Miserables
Anna Karenina
I won't bore you with the tech categories. Let's see how things shake out tomorrow at 5:30 am PST!
Thursday, January 3, 2013
I Dreamed a Dream of Oscar Films
And now we come to November-December of the year, when all the studios crank out their big Oscar contenders and hope voters fall in love with them. I've caught up with many of the contenders, and they've all been worthwhile viewings. Here are some brief thoughts...
Anna Karenina
Anna Karenina is quite possibly my favorite book, so I was both excited and nervous to see how a 2-hour film would condense this epic story. What director Joe Wright (Atonement, Pride and Prejudice) did was innovative, astonishing, and about 90% successful. Instead of going for the typical period scope and bombast, he brought the action in, staging most of the action in an old theater. This gives the movie a theatricality similar to Moulin Rogue that will probably work better for some viewers than others. Keira Knightley certainly puts her own spin on Anna, and Jude Law is a terrific and sympathetic Karenin. As in the book, much of the emotional pull comes from the love story of Kitty and Lenin, and I do wish they had a bit more screen time. The movie didn't conform to my impressions of the novel, but it did something a bit more important, gave me a good spin on the novel.
Grade: A-
I Am His Mistress
Anna Karenina
— MOVIECLIPS.com
Les Miserables
In my mind, Les Miserables is kind of the definition of a mixed bag, with moments of incredible beauty and power mixed in with some really clunky mistakes. First the good. Anne Hathaway is as amazing as you've heard as the doomed Fantine, and she will be winning the Supporting Actress Oscar. Her rendition of "I Dreamed a Dream" is a highlight of the film. Hugh Jackman is good as well, but the revelation to me was Eddie Redmayne, who has a beautiful voice as well as strong acting skills. I can't believe he hasn't been more in the Supporting Actor conversation. Now for my qualms.... Director Tom Hooper shoots everything in close-up, which becomes a bit tiring after a while and loses a sense of sweep and scope in the movie. Russell Crowe is actually a better singer than I feared, but he seemed to be concentrating so hard on his notes that he forgot to work on the acting skills of Javert. His scenes and songs are big momentum-stoppers in the movie. My other issues I think have to do with the source material itself. Condensing a 1000 page book into a musical certainly causes emotional shortcuts that can seem almost laughable, such as when Valjean goes from seeing Marius once to singing "He's like the son I might have known." In the end, I didn't cry once during the movie, and a Les Mis that doesn't make me cry can't be counted as wholly successful. Definitely worth seeing to see if it moves you, and to see some great performances, but I'm praying very hard it isn't crowned Best Picture on Oscar night.
Grade: B-
Life of Pi
I'll start with a flat-out rave. The middle section of Ang Lee's Life of Pi, where a young man and a tiger struggle for survival on a lifeboat, is among the best adventure stories ever told on film. The cinematic artistry and special effects are astonishing, and we are with the characters every step of the way. It's a great thing that this section is about 70% (?) of the movie, because what bookends this section is certainly not up to its level. Lee decides to surround the whole magical story with a clunky framing device involving a writer interviewing the older Pi. While it exists in the book, I think this is a case where some parts of the book should have been discarded, as they don't quite work on the screen and cause the movie to lose a bit of the magic. But when it comes to that middle section, thinking back on it weeks later I'm still amazed and moved.
Grade: B+
Lincoln
Throughout the summer and fall, I've seen so many movies I've really really liked that haven't tripped that "masterpiece" button for me. Immediately after Lincoln, I knew I had seen a "masterpiece," the best movie I've seen in 2012. Steven Spielberg makes one of his best movies ever in this depiction of Lincoln's passing of the 13th Amendment. I'm a big fan of biopics that don't try to cram in a whole life, and this one stays tight and focused, and thus in the end actually says more about Lincoln's life. Playwright Tony Kushner write a remarkable screenplay that manages to be profound, suspenseful, and delightfully talky all at the same time. The enormous, accomplished ensemble is amazing, particularly Daniel Day-Lewis (my vote for our greatest working actor) as Lincoln and an incredible Tommy Lee Jones as abolitionist firebrand Thaddeus Stevens. An great movie that has a strong possibility of becoming a true American classic.
Grade: A
Silver Linings Playbook
Silver Linings Playbook is an off-kilter, goofy, rambling, and completely delightful romantic comedy with great performances by Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence. It took me a few minutes to figure out the rhythm of the movie, but once I fell into its sway I was won over. Cooper and Lawrence play two mentally-damaged characters who connect to find some happiness in their life. Just as he turned a sports movie into something much quirkier and interesting in The Fighter, here director David O. Russell turns a movie full of indie-comedy elements into something really fresh and refreshing. I would love to watch it again now.
Grade: A-
What Meds Are You On?
Silver Linings Playbook
— MOVIECLIPS.com
Skyfall
Not being a huge James Bond fan (I'm more of a Bourne man myself when it comes to action movies), I wasn't chomping at the bit to see Skyfall, but the close-to-ecstatic reviews and huge pedigree (director Sam Mendes, Javier Bardem) made me see it and I'm glad I did. While I still think some of the James Bond tropes are more laughable than entertaining (I'm thinking of you, scene with Asian villains and a lethal komodo dragon), this movie is chock full of great set-pieces, including an amazing opening and a highly stylized chase in a modern tower. Daniel Craig and Judi Dench also make a terrific pair, since in this movie M is just about as important as Bond. While the movie is probably about 20 minutes too long, it's undeniably entertaining and a worthy addition to the franchise.
Grade: B
Take the Shot
Skyfall
— MOVIECLIPS.com
Anna Karenina
Anna Karenina is quite possibly my favorite book, so I was both excited and nervous to see how a 2-hour film would condense this epic story. What director Joe Wright (Atonement, Pride and Prejudice) did was innovative, astonishing, and about 90% successful. Instead of going for the typical period scope and bombast, he brought the action in, staging most of the action in an old theater. This gives the movie a theatricality similar to Moulin Rogue that will probably work better for some viewers than others. Keira Knightley certainly puts her own spin on Anna, and Jude Law is a terrific and sympathetic Karenin. As in the book, much of the emotional pull comes from the love story of Kitty and Lenin, and I do wish they had a bit more screen time. The movie didn't conform to my impressions of the novel, but it did something a bit more important, gave me a good spin on the novel.
Grade: A-
I Am His Mistress
Anna Karenina
— MOVIECLIPS.com
Les Miserables
In my mind, Les Miserables is kind of the definition of a mixed bag, with moments of incredible beauty and power mixed in with some really clunky mistakes. First the good. Anne Hathaway is as amazing as you've heard as the doomed Fantine, and she will be winning the Supporting Actress Oscar. Her rendition of "I Dreamed a Dream" is a highlight of the film. Hugh Jackman is good as well, but the revelation to me was Eddie Redmayne, who has a beautiful voice as well as strong acting skills. I can't believe he hasn't been more in the Supporting Actor conversation. Now for my qualms.... Director Tom Hooper shoots everything in close-up, which becomes a bit tiring after a while and loses a sense of sweep and scope in the movie. Russell Crowe is actually a better singer than I feared, but he seemed to be concentrating so hard on his notes that he forgot to work on the acting skills of Javert. His scenes and songs are big momentum-stoppers in the movie. My other issues I think have to do with the source material itself. Condensing a 1000 page book into a musical certainly causes emotional shortcuts that can seem almost laughable, such as when Valjean goes from seeing Marius once to singing "He's like the son I might have known." In the end, I didn't cry once during the movie, and a Les Mis that doesn't make me cry can't be counted as wholly successful. Definitely worth seeing to see if it moves you, and to see some great performances, but I'm praying very hard it isn't crowned Best Picture on Oscar night.
Grade: B-
Life of Pi
I'll start with a flat-out rave. The middle section of Ang Lee's Life of Pi, where a young man and a tiger struggle for survival on a lifeboat, is among the best adventure stories ever told on film. The cinematic artistry and special effects are astonishing, and we are with the characters every step of the way. It's a great thing that this section is about 70% (?) of the movie, because what bookends this section is certainly not up to its level. Lee decides to surround the whole magical story with a clunky framing device involving a writer interviewing the older Pi. While it exists in the book, I think this is a case where some parts of the book should have been discarded, as they don't quite work on the screen and cause the movie to lose a bit of the magic. But when it comes to that middle section, thinking back on it weeks later I'm still amazed and moved.
Grade: B+
Lincoln
Throughout the summer and fall, I've seen so many movies I've really really liked that haven't tripped that "masterpiece" button for me. Immediately after Lincoln, I knew I had seen a "masterpiece," the best movie I've seen in 2012. Steven Spielberg makes one of his best movies ever in this depiction of Lincoln's passing of the 13th Amendment. I'm a big fan of biopics that don't try to cram in a whole life, and this one stays tight and focused, and thus in the end actually says more about Lincoln's life. Playwright Tony Kushner write a remarkable screenplay that manages to be profound, suspenseful, and delightfully talky all at the same time. The enormous, accomplished ensemble is amazing, particularly Daniel Day-Lewis (my vote for our greatest working actor) as Lincoln and an incredible Tommy Lee Jones as abolitionist firebrand Thaddeus Stevens. An great movie that has a strong possibility of becoming a true American classic.
Grade: A
Silver Linings Playbook
Silver Linings Playbook is an off-kilter, goofy, rambling, and completely delightful romantic comedy with great performances by Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence. It took me a few minutes to figure out the rhythm of the movie, but once I fell into its sway I was won over. Cooper and Lawrence play two mentally-damaged characters who connect to find some happiness in their life. Just as he turned a sports movie into something much quirkier and interesting in The Fighter, here director David O. Russell turns a movie full of indie-comedy elements into something really fresh and refreshing. I would love to watch it again now.
Grade: A-
What Meds Are You On?
Silver Linings Playbook
— MOVIECLIPS.com
Skyfall
Not being a huge James Bond fan (I'm more of a Bourne man myself when it comes to action movies), I wasn't chomping at the bit to see Skyfall, but the close-to-ecstatic reviews and huge pedigree (director Sam Mendes, Javier Bardem) made me see it and I'm glad I did. While I still think some of the James Bond tropes are more laughable than entertaining (I'm thinking of you, scene with Asian villains and a lethal komodo dragon), this movie is chock full of great set-pieces, including an amazing opening and a highly stylized chase in a modern tower. Daniel Craig and Judi Dench also make a terrific pair, since in this movie M is just about as important as Bond. While the movie is probably about 20 minutes too long, it's undeniably entertaining and a worthy addition to the franchise.
Grade: B
Take the Shot
Skyfall
— MOVIECLIPS.com
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