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Thursday, January 10, 2013


And here they are!  An exciting nomination morning with a few big surprises and a lot that's of interest.  The oldest and the youngest Best Actress nominees ever, the first foreign film in quite some time in the Best Picture lineup, and some notable snubs for Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow.  While I honestly had some issues with Beasts of the Southern Wild, it did amazingly well for a micro-budget indie, and I don't begrudge it any of its nominations.  Maybe it's even time for a rewatch.

This year, I went 37/44, or 84%, in the major categories that I predicted.  I was spot on in Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay, and only missed 2 in Director (along with every other pundit).  The last two years I did 87%, but I'm actually happy the awards were a bit more predictable this year.

Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

8/9.  I was correct that there would be 9 nominees, although Amour got in instead of Moonrise Kingdom.  I do wish Moonrise had been able to make it. Such a fun and charming movie.  I have to catch up on Amour, Django, and ZDT before Oscar night.

Will Win: Lincoln.  It seems pretty obvious.
Dark Horse: Silver Linings Playbook.  It did VERY well today.

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

4/5.  I thought they would go with John Hawkes for The Sessions and not Joaquin.  SO GLAD Joaquin made it. Love or hate The Master, Joaquin is incredible.  Not a bad lineup at all.

Will Win: Day Lewis
Dark Horse: Jackman?? I don't see anyone else taking this.

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Quevenzhane Wallis, Beast of the Southern Wild

4/5.  I picked Marion Cotillard in Rust and Bone over Wallis.  What a cool lineup-the oldest actress ever nominated (Wallis of course) and the oldest (Riva).

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Dark Horse: Emmanuelle Riva.  Amour also did very well today, and I hear she's simply incredible.

Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Robert de Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

5/5.  Pretty proud of my predicting in this category.  This category is ALL former winners-which I believe is a first in any category in Oscar history.

Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones
Dark Horse: Philip Seymour Hoffman

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

4/5.  I picked Ann Dowd for Compliance, and didn't even have Weaver on my runners-up list (an oversight, I know).  That means someone from Silver Linings is in every single acting category.

Will Win: Anne Hathaway
Dark Horse: Sally Field

Michael Haneke, Amour
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Benh Zeitlan, Beasts of the Southern Wild

3/5.  Like most, I totally botched this category. They shockingly left our Hollywood golden boy Ben Afflect (Argo) and critically lauded Kathryn Bigelow (ZDT) for the Austrian auteur (Haneke) and a rookie (Zeitlan).  What an interesting lineup.

Will Win: Steven Spielberg
Dark Horse: Ang Lee

Original Screenplay
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

4/5.  They went with Flight over The Master.  Guess they just liked the acting in The Master, as it got nods for its 3 stars.

Will Win: Zero Dark Thiry
Dark Horse: Amour (or Django?) This seems competitive to me.

Adapted Screenplay
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook

5/5.  A perfect category for me.

Will Win: Lincoln
Dark Horse: Silver Linings Playbook

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