Final Nomination Predictions

It's been an up-and-down and exciting year for Oscar this year, with various films courting buzz and controversy as the season progresses.  I'll do my best with my predictions, but I feel quite shaky on many categories since this has been a refreshingly unpredictable year.  Here goes.... in presumed order of likelihood in each category.

Picture
Lincoln
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom

Possibilities
Amour
Skyfall
The Master

The one year we had the strange between 5-and-10 rules (last year), gave us 9 nominees, so I'm going with that again.  The top 6 through Life of Pi are solid, but after that a lot could happen.  We shall see.

Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Denzel Washington, Flight
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Possibilities
Joaquin Phoneix, The Master
Jean Louis-Trintignant, Amour
Ben Affleck, Argo

This is a fierce 6-man race.  Since this category has a history of leaving out my favorite male performance of the year (Michael Fassbender in Shame, Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine), I'm guessing they'll leave out Joaquin, but I really hope not.

Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Possibilites
Quevenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea

I'm really not sure what to expect from this category.  Will they really nominate two French actresses?  Will they make history and go with the youngest ever nominee with Wallis? We shall see.

Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert de Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Possibilities
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables
Samuel L. Jackson, Django Unchained

That fifth spot is a doozy-any of the possibilities could almost as easily get in as Waltz, but Django does seem to have some heat right now.

Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Amy Adams, The Master
Ann Dowd, Compliance

Possibilities
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Judi Dench, Skyfall
Samantha Barks, Les Miserables

Another confusing blur for the last spot.  I've heard Dowd has been campaigning hard...

Director
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee, Life of Pi

David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Possibilities
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Michael Haneke, Amour
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

I really hope Hooper gets left out for his oddly directed movie.  I didn't hate Les Mis, but its direction certainly wasn't its strength.

Original Screenplay
Zero Dark Thirty
Moonrise Kingdom
Django Unchained
Amour
The Master

Possibilites
Looper
Flight
Middle of Nowhere

Adapted Screenplay
Lincoln
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild

Possibilities
Perks of Being a Wallflower
The Sessions
Les Miserables
Anna Karenina

I won't bore you with the tech categories.  Let's see how things shake out tomorrow at 5:30 am PST!