It's the best kind of Oscar year, when there are lots of tough choices to make because so many races are tight. One thing is for certain: Gravity will win the most awards of the night. Does that mean it will win Best Picture? It very well could, but it's an amazingly close race. Here you go....I've also taken the opportunity to list my preferences in order across the categories-with my personal pick at the top.
Predicted Multiple Winners
Gravity- 6 (Director, Cinematography, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects)
12 Years a Slave- 3 (Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay)
Dallas Buyers Club- 3 (Actor, Supporting Actor, Makeup)
American Hustle- 2 (Original Screenplay, Costume Design)
If I Had a Vote:
12 Years a Slave- 6 (Picture,Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing)
Gravity- 3 (Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing)
Nebraska- 2 (Actor, Original Screenplay)
Inside Llewyn Davis- 2 (Cinematography, Sound Mixing)
Best Picture
Gravity
Nebraska
Her
Captain Phillips
American Hustle
The Wolf of Wall Street
Philomena
Dallas Buyers Club
Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: Gravity
Should Have Been Here: Inside Llewyn Davis
An absolute nail-biter between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, and I'm switching by the second. At one point people thought American Hustle had a shot too, but I think its glory has faded. As much as I really love both frontrunners, I desperately want 12 Years a Salve to win. It would be a great win for film. In the end.... I'm flipping a coin and going with 12 Years a Slave, but ask me in another minute and I'll say Gravity. The tightest race in many, many years.
Best Actor
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Could Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Should Have Been Here: Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
McConaughey probably has this in the bag, which is too bad when a category is this rich. I'd love to see Dern, Ejiofor, or even DiCaprio surprise with a win here. Of the three, DiCaprio has the best (although I think slight) chance to upset.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Will Win: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Could Win: Amy Adams, American Hustle
Should Have Been Here: Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Even the recent Woody Allen saga won't be enough to deny Blanchett her well-deserved Oscar. The drama is how she will talk about Woody in her acceptance speech.
Best Supporting Actor
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Barkad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Will Win: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Could Win: Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Should Have Been Here: James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Throughout the season, I've been most disappointed at how thoroughly Leto has dominated in what is a decent, but sort of obvious role. Expect him to win here, just as he has at about every other awards show.
Best Supporting Actress
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
June Squibb, Nebraska
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Should Have Been Here: Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now
Probably a very close race between Lawrence and Nyong'o. They are both terrific, but Nyong'o's performance is one of the most astonishing supporting performances I've ever seen, and will probably win. If she doesn't, I think it's bad news for 12 Years a Slave's Best Picture chances.
Best Director
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Could Win: Steve McQueen
Should Have Been Here; Coen Brothers, Inside Llewyn Davis
While I prefer McQueen, I will still cheer when Cuaron, one of my all-time favorite directors, wins this.
Best Adapted Screenplay
12 Years a Slave
Before Midnight
The Wolf of Wall Street
Philomena
Captain Phillips
Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: Philomena
Should Have Been Here: The Spectacular Now
Probably a fairly easy win for 12 Years a Salve, although I think there's a slight chance the well-liked Philomena could sneak in.
Best Original Screenplay
Nebraska
Her
Blue Jasmine
American Hustle
Dallas Buyers Club
Will Win: American Hustle
Could Win: Her
Should Have Been Here: Frances Ha
Another coin flip category- I had a hard time picking between American Hustle and Her. I also have a sneaking suspicion Nebraska is probably not all that far behind. American Hustle did get 10 nominations, though, so I think they will most likely give it a statue or two.
Animated Feature
Haven't Seen:
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises
Will Win: Frozen
Could Win: The Wind Rises (but not really)
Best Cinematography
Inside Llewyn Davis
Gravity
Prisoners
Nebraska
Haven't Seen
The Grandmaster
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Nebraska
Should have been here: 12 Years a Slave
This is my favorite below-the-line category, and it's a really great crop of work this year. I'm excited for Emmanuel Lubezki (a truly great and Oscarless cinematographer- he should already have 3 Oscars for Children of Men, The New World, and The Tree of Life), but I am also a little disturbed at how this category has turned into best-3D the past few years (Avatar, Hugo, Life of Pi), so I would personally vote for my favorite (and Oscar-snubbed) film of the year, Inside Llewyn Davis.
Best Costume Design
American Hustle
12 Years a Slave
The Great Gatsby
Haven't Seen:
The Grandmaster
The Invisible Woman
Will Win: American Hustle
Could Win: The Great Gatsby
Should have been here: Her
Best usually means "most" in this category, and logic would give the edge to Gatsby. However, this would be a cool place to honor one of the most memorable parts of American Hustle. In the end, I'm making a bet that the Oscar voters will go with the deep V-necks.
Best Documentary
20 Feet From Stardom
The Act of Killing
The Square
Cutie and the Boxer
Haven't Seen
Dirty Wars
Will Win: 20 Feet From Stardom
Could Win: The Square
Three phenomenal films are in contention for the win: the astonishing and disturbing The Act of Killing, the soulful crowdpleaser 20 Feet From Stardom, and the inspiring and enlightening Egyptian documentary The Square. Any could win, although I'm guessing 20 Feet From Stardom will be too hard to resist.
Best Documentary Short (Haven't Seen Any)
Haven't Seen
Cavedigger
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
Will Win: The Lady in Number 6
Could Win: Cavedigger
Film Editing
12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips
Gravity
American Hustle
Dallas Buyers Club
Will Win: Captain Phillips
Could Win: Gravity
Should have been here: Inside Llewyn Davis
A very tight race between Captain Phillips and Gravity, I think. Captain Phillps artful building and sustaining of tension may be just enough to overtake the Gravity juggernaut.
A very tight race between Captain Phillips and Gravity, I think. Captain Phillps artful building and sustaining of tension may be just enough to overtake the Gravity juggernaut.
Best Foreign Language Film
The Great Beauty
The Missing Picture
The Hunt
The Broken Circle Breakdown
Haven't Seen:
Omar
Will Win: The Great Beauty
Could Win: The Hunt
I loved the ravishing, Felliniesque Italian film The Great Beauty, really liked The Missing Picture, liked the thriller The Hunt, and was mixed on the musical tearjerker The Broken Circle Breakdown. I think it's a 3-way race between The Great Beauty, The Hunt, and The Broken Circle Breakdown, but I am guessing the mix of style, beauty, and longing in The Great Beauty will win.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Dallas Buyers Club
Haven't Seen:
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger
Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Could Win: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
Best Original Score
Gravity
Her
Philomena
Haven't Seen:
The Book Thief
Saving Mr. Banks
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Philomena
Should have been here: 12 Years a Slave
A lackluster category this year, which makes this a pretty easy win for Gravity's powerful score.
Best Original Song
Let it Go, Frozen
Happy, Despicable Me 2
Ordinary Love, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
The Moon Song, Her
Will Win: Let it Go
Could Win: Happy
Two good songs, and two mediocre ones. Frozen's epic showtune will definitely win.
Best Production Design
Her
12 Years a Slave
Gravity
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Could Win: Gravity
Should have been here: Inside Llewyn Davis
I'm afraid my least-favorite production design (The garish The Great Gatsby) will win over 4 worthier contenders.
Best Animated Short (Haven't Seen Them)
Feral
Get a Horse!
Mr. Hublot
Posessions
Room on the Broom
Will Win: Get a Horse!
Could Win: Mr. Hublot
Best Live Action Short (Haven't Seen Them)
Equal No Era Yo
Avant Que De Tout Perdre
Helium
Pitaako Mun Kaikki Hoitaa?
The Voorman Problem
Will Win: Helium
Could Win: The Voorman Problem
Best Sound Editing
Gravity
Captain Phillips
All is Lost
Haven't Seen:
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Captain Phillips
Best Sound Mixing
Inside Llewyn Davis
Gravity
Captain Phillips
Haven't Seen:
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Nothing else!
Best Visual Effects
Gravity
Haven't Seen:
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek: Into Darkness
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Nothing else!
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