Final Predictions

I've mulled over these for a while, and made my best guesses!

I've listed the nominees in order of my preference and then put up predictions, the runners-ups, and who should really be in the category.

While a few of the major categories are locked up, overall this is a very difficult year for many predictions. I usually get somewhere between 19-21 out of 24 correct. I'll definitely be lucky if I break 20 tonight.  So much the better. Here's to an exciting Oscar year!


Best Picture
Boyhood
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Whiplash
Selma
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
American Sniper

Will Win: Boyhood
Could Win: Birdman
Should Have Been Here: Under the Skin

For the second year in a row (after last year's 12 Years a Slave/Gravity match up), a too close to call race for Best Picture. My head says to go with Birdman, which won the Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild, and Directors Guild awards, often predictors for the big prize. Boyhood won BAFTA and just about every critic's prize, though, so I'm holding out hope my favorite holds on.... 

Best Director
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alexandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Will Win: Alejandro Inarritu
Could Win: Richard Linklater
Should Have Been Here: Ava Duvernay, Selma

Another extremely tough call. Probably not smart to predict a split, but I'm guessing that Inarritu's showy directorial work may win out here, even if Birdman loses best picture.

Best Actor
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Bradley Cooper, American Sniper

Will Win: Eddie Redmayne
Could Win: Michael Keaton (and it's close!)
Should Have Been Here: Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

Another really tight race between Redmayne and Keaton. This category was chock full of great contenders before nomination morning, and somehow they passed over many of them.... I would have loved to see Fiennes, David Oyelowo (Selma) or Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler) take any spot except Keaton's.  I'm hoping Keaton can pull this out over Redmayne, but the Academy doesn't typcially reward comedic performances in Best Actor.

Best Actress
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Will Win: Julianne Moore
Could Win: Reese Witherspoon
Should Have Been Here: Lindsay Duncan, Le Week-end

This is actually a terrific list of actresses.   Julianne is one of my all-time favorites, and while hers is only my third favorite performance of the nominees, I'll be happy to see her take this. I'm mostly exceedingly thankful Cotillard got in for an amazing performance. For my money, Marion Cotillard gave the two best female performances of the year, in Two Days, One Night and in The Immigrant.

Best Supporting Actor
Edward Norton, Birdman
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

Haven't Seen:
Robert Duvall, The Judge

Will Win: J.K. Simmons
Could Win: Edward Norton
Should have been here: Ben Mendelsohn, Starred Up

I absolutely adore the 4 performances that I've seen in this category, and any would make a great winner.  It will certainly be J.K. Simmons.

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Emma Stone, Birdman
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Laura Dern, Wild

Haven't Seen:
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Will Win: Patricia Arquette
Could Win: Emma Stone
Should Have Been Here: Agata Kulesza, Ida

Arquette will win this, easily, and it's a great performance.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Whiplash
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
American Sniper

Haven't Seen:
Inherent Vice

Will Win: The Imitation Game
Could Win: Whiplash
Should Have Been Here: Wild

I think they will want to award The Imitation Game somewhere, and this seems the obvious place.  Watch out for Whiplash though.

Best Original Screenplay
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Boyhood
Birdman
Foxcatcher
Nightcrawler

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Birdman
Should Have Been Here: Love is Strange

I think this is a tight 3-way race, and I'm tempted to pick Birdman.  Having nominated Budapest for so many awards, though, I think they'll want to award Wes here for a beautifully written screenplay.

Best Cinematography
Birdman – Emmanuel Lubezki
Ida – Lukasz Zal & Ryszard Lenczewski
The Grand Budapest Hotel – Robert Yeoman

Haven't Seen
Mr. Turner – Dick Pope
Unbroken – Roger Deakins

Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should have been here: Under the Skin

This will easily make two wins in a row for Lubezki, one of my favorite film artists.

Best Foreign Language Film
Ida

Haven't Seen:
Leviathan
Tangerines
Timbuktu
Wild Tales

Will Win: Ida
Could Win: Wild Tales

Ida is the most well-known and it's terrific, but this could also go to Wild Tales or Leviathan. 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Foxcatcher
Guardians of the Galaxy

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Foxcatcher
Should have been here: Snowpiercer

Noses and wrestling injuries, whimsical characters, or sci-fi megahit?  A category that could go any which way. I'm guessing they'll pick the more varied looks of Budapest over the prosthetics of Foxcatcher.

Best Original Score
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Theory of Everything
The Imitation Game

Haven't Seen:
Interstellar
Mr. Turner

Will Win: The Theory of Everything
Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should have been here: Gone Girl

I remember watching The Theory of Everything and thinking "this sounds like an Oscar-winning score," so I'm going with that. It's in a tight race with The Grand Budapest Hotel.

Best Original Song
"Glory,” Selma
“Everything is Awesome,” The LEGO Movie
“Lost Stars,” Begin Again
“Grateful,” Beyond the Lights
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You,” Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me

Will Win: Glory
Could Win: Everything is Awesome
Should have been here: ?

A fun category! The first three songs are all great, and important to their movies.

Best Animated Feature (Haven't Seen Any)
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Could Win: Big Hero 6
Should have been her: The Lego Movie, of course

Best Film Editing
Boyhood
Whiplash

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

American Sniper

Will Win: Boyhood
Could Win: Whiplash
Should have been here: Selma

Best Production Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game

Haven't Seen:
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Into the Woods
Should have been here: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Best Animated Short
The Bigger Picture
The Dam Keeper
Feast
Me and My Moulton
A Single Life

Will Win: Feast
Could Win: The Bigger Picture

Best Live Action Short
Aya
Boogaloo and Graham
Butter Lamp
Parvaneh
The Phone Call

Will Win: The Phone Call (I saw this one!)
Could Win: Boogaloo and Graham

Best Documentary—Short (Haven't Seen Any)
Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Joanna
Our Curse
The Reaper
White Earth

Will Win: Joanna
Could Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Best Sound Editing
Birdman
American Sniper

Haven't Seen
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Unbroken

Will Win: American Sniper
Could Win: Interstellar
Should have been here: Whiplash

Best Sound Mixing
Whiplash
Birdman
American Sniper

Haven't Seen:
Interstellar
Unbroken

Will Win: Whiplash
Could Win: American Sniper
Should have been here: Under the Skin

Best Visual Effects
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy

Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Interstellar
X-Men: Days of Future Past

Will Win: Interstellar
Could Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Should have been here: Edge of Tomorrow

Best Documentary — Feature (Haven't Seen Any)
Citizenfour
Finding Vivien Maier
Last Days of Vietnam
The Salt of the Earth
Virunga

Will Win: Citizenfour
Could Win: Virunga
Should have been here: Life Itself (A surprise snub.... I guess the Academy doesn't like film critics)

Best Costume Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel (The only one I've seen)

Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Maleficent
Mr. Turner

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Into the Woods
Should have been here: Selma

So, all in all I'm predicting:

4 for The Grand Budapest Hotel (Original Screenplay, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup)
3 for Boyhood (Picture, Supporting Actress, Editing)
2 for Birdman (Director, Cinematography)
2 for Whiplash (Supporting Actor, Sound Mixing)
2 for The Theory of Everything (Actor, Score)