Nomination run-down

They are here!  The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road cleaned up with, respectively, 12 and 10 nominations.  


Thoughts:

-After a confusing precursor season, the Oscars actually only left us with a few big surprises. The biggest things most weren't predicting were Tom Hardy (The Revenant) for Supporting Actor and Lenny Abrahamson (Room) for Director.

-The biggest snub was definitely Ridley Scott (The Martian) for Director, who many thought was the most likely winner. Another snub was Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation) for Supporting Actor, which also means we get the second year in a row of 20 white people and the hashtag #oscarssowhite. This can't be blamed on no choices. Besides Elba, Michael B. Jordan (Creed) would have made a great Best Actor candidate to go in a somewhat weak category.

-Not a total snub but a disappointment was Carol missing out on Best Picture, despite its 6 nominations. Director Todd Haynes may always be a little too art-house to make it big.

-This year, I had the exact same stats as last year, 36/43 for 84% in the categories I predicted. Not too bad I think.

Stats: (36/43) 84% 

Below are the nominees, my thoughts, and in italics my foolish first predictions of who will eventually win.

Picture
Spotlight
The Big Short
The Martian
The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Room

7/8

Just like last year, we ended up with 8 nominees. I had predicted Carol instead of Room, although I had Room right on the cusp so no major surprises here. All in all, a pretty interesting group of films this year, although Carol and Ex Machina would have made my day!  I'm especially pleased the beautiful Brooklyn made it through. My guess is that this will boil down to a Spotlight vs. The Big Short, unless The Revenant keeps up momentum. I don't dare to hope that Mad Max: Fury Road will pull through, as awesome as that would be.

Director

Alejandro G. Innarritu, The Revenant
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
Lenny Abrahamson, Room

4/5

I (and everyone else online) predicted Ridley Scott for The Martian, whose spot got taken by Lenny Abrahamson in Room.

Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Matt Damon, The Martian
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

5/5

The easiest category to predict, and it went as expected. No more drama to see here folks. No one can touch Leo for this Oscar.

Actress

Brie Larson, Room
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

4/5

I predicted Oscars would put in Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) instead of Lawrence, but the category fraud worked, so Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara both ended up in Supporting, leaving room for Rampling and Lawrence.  With Room making it in both Picture and Director, I think Brie Larson has the steam.

Supporting Actor

Locks
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight 
Tom Hardy, The Revenant

4/5

I had guessed Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation) instead of Hardy.  This contest will end up being Stallone vs. Rylance I think, with Bale having an outside shot.

Supporting Actress

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Rooney Mara, Carol
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

4/5

I predicted Helen Mirren (Trumbo) over Rachel McAdams, who was frankly fine but not overly impressive in Spotlight. Either Mara or Vikander, with their huge "supporting" roles, will likely win here.

Original Screenplay

Spotlight
Inside Out
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Straight Outta Compton

4/5

Tarantino missed out for The Hateful Eight and they went with Straight Outta Compton. It's hard to see Spotlight losing here.

Adapted Screenplay

The Big Short
The Martian
Brooklyn
Room
Carol

4/5

I'm happy to see Carol here, but sad it was at the expense of the excellent Steve Jobs screenplay. This one seems destined to go to The Big Short.

Film Editing

The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars, The Force Awakens

Foreign Language Film

Embrace of the Serpent, Colombia
Mustang, France
Son of Saul, Hungary
Theeb, Jordan
A War, Denmark

Original Score

Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
SIcario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Production Design

Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Visual Effects

Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Animated Feature

Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie was There

Cinematography

Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

Costume Design

Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

Documentary-Feature

Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom

Documentary Short

Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom

Makeup

Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-year-old man Who Climbed Out a Window and Disappeared
The Revenant

Song

Earned It, 50 Shades of Gray
Manta Ray, Racing Extinction
Simple Song #3, Youth
Til it Happens to You, The Hunting Ground
Writings on the Wall, Spectre

Look guys! 50 Shades of Gray is an Oscar nominee. And maybe winner?

Animated Short

Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay's Super Team
We Can't Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow

Live Action Short

Ave Maria
Day One
Everything will be OK
Shok
Stutterer

Sound Editing

Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Sound Mixing

Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Final Predictions

This has probably been the most up in the air Oscar season since I've started blogging, with lots of unknowns throughout just about all categories. You'll see my contenders list is pretty long throughout just to cover my ass! I'll be shocked if I do better than average in my percentages, but I'll take it if it means an Oscar race this exciting.

A few wishes for tomorrow morning:

-Mad Max leads nominations
-Ex Machina makes it in for Best Picture
-Brooklyn gets in for Picture, Actress (a given), and Screenplay
-Michael B. Jordan somehow makes it in for Creed.

Picture

Locks
1. Spotlight
2. The Big Short

Very Likely
3. The Martian
4. The Revenant
5. Mad Max: Fury Road

Possible
6. Bridge of Spies
7. Brooklyn
8. Carol
Room
Straight Outta Compton
Inside Out
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Ex Machina
Creed
The Danish Girl
Trumbo

Oscars can go from 5-10 nominees, and I'm going to guess this is an 8 year like last year.

Director

Very Likely
1. Ridley Scott, The Martian
2. Alejandro G. Innaritu, The Revenant
3. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Possible
4. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
5. Adam McKay, The Big Short
Todd Haynes, Carol
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
John Crowley, Brooklyn
Dennis Villenue, Sicario
Lenny Abrahamson, Room


Actor

Locks
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Very Likely
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
4. Matt Damon, The Martian
5. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Possible
Steve Carell, The Big Short
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Ian McKellan, Mr. Holmes
Michael Caine, Youth
Jacob Tremblay, Room

This is the one category that seems to have gelled, but there's probably room for an upset. If there is an upset, my strong hunch is it will be Carell as The Big Short has picked up steam.

Actress

Locks
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol

Possible
4. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Rooney Mara, Carol (If voters reject the Supporting campaign)
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Emily Blunt, Sicario
Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold

Vikander is being campaigned for Supporting, but Oscar voters very well may put their foot down on the category and decide she belongs in lead.  The same with Rooney Mara, but I'm guessing she stays in supporting. That fifth slot seems like a fight between Rampling and Lawrence.

Supporting Actor

Locks
1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Very Likely
2. Christian Bale, The Big Short
3. Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Possible
4. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
5. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
Benicio del Toro, Sicario
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Jacob Tremblay, Room

I will be 100% shocked if I nail this category. It's been all over the place this season, and I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the contenders in the last two spots. I toyed with leaving Ruffalo off, but if Spotlight is really strong it would make sense to have some acting nominations to go with it. If Elba misses here, we'll probably end up with another #oscarssowhite year,.
Supporting Actress

Very Likely
1. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
2. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (or for The Danish Girl if voters put it here instead of lead)
3. Rooney Mara, Carol

Possible
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Jane Fonda, Youth
Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Julie Walters, Brooklyn
Joan Allen, Room.

Another really confusing category, so much so I'm not willing to call anyone a lock. Many are predicting McAdams, but its a really unshowy role.  In words I never thought I'd say, I'm really hoping for Kristen Stewart, who has won lots of the critics awards for her role in a great small movie, to get in here.

Original Screenplay

Locks
1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out

Very Likely
3. The Hateful Eight

Possible
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Ex Machina
Sicario
Trainwreck
Joy

Adapted Screenplay

Locks
1. The Big Short

Very Likely
2. Steve Jobs
3. The Martian

Possible
4. Brooklyn
5. Room
Carol
The Revenant
Anomalisa
45 Years
Creed
The Danish Girl

There seems to be a sense that Carol is fading. If so, I think this is one place we might see it drop out.

Golden Globe Night Liveblog

I'll be posting here with updates throughout the night. Newest posts up top!


The Show!

-That's all for now folks! Thanks for following.

-Remember earlier when I listed my favorites in the conversation (Mad Max, Brooklyn, The Big Short, Carol)?  They all went home empty handed tonight.  An unpredictable night in an unpredictable season.

-Here we go with the last one.  Is it The Revenant? Spotlight, Mad Max, and Carol are all awardless right now, but might come back here. The Globes do like to spread the wealth. It is The Revenant. I have a feeling this won't repeat at the Oscars.....

-Leo and Kate Winslet both won awards tonight. #Titanic4eva

-Actor/Drama. Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant. He's one three Globes now (The Aviator and The Wolf of Wall Street), but no Oscars. It certainly seems like this is his year. I'm at 6/13- can I make it to 50% this year?

-Actress/Drama. Brie Larson in Room.  I was hoping for Saoirse, but I really love all these actresses. I did predict this one, so I'm 5/12. That cut to young Jacob Tremblay! He looks so moved.

-Best Picture Comedy/Musical: The Martian.  Missed this one too, so 4/11. Lots of folks carping about how this is classified as comedy. I actually don't have a problem with it- lots of jokes in the movie and it plays a lot lot lighter than something like Gravity. I'm pretty bummed The Big Short is coming up.... well short. Also Ridley Scott saying "screw you" to the orchestra. Funny or abrasive?

-Actress in a Comedy to Jennifer Lawrence in Joy. THIRD globe for her at such a young age. Short and sweet speech. Lots of folks were thinking this was Schumer's. 4/10 now, probably my worst year ever.

-TV Actress in a Drama. Taraji P. Henson in Empire. DC represent! Super excited, a little drunk, or both? Just the big film awards left now.

-Director to Innaritu for The Revenant. Seems kind of like a makeup award since they didn't give it to him last year for Birdman. Guys, my predictions really suck this year. 4/9.

-Denzel! Damn he's good. True love from the crowd too.

-When they went to commercial, Jane Fonda was caressing Terrence Howard's face. Man, I'd love to be a seat filler at the Globes.

-TV Drama to Mr. Robot. They like their new shoes here at the Globes, and this is supposed to be really good.

-Mad Max: Fury Road. I want to watch it again RIGHT NOW! So freaking amazing.

-"We all know who Mel blames....." BURN.  Context :(http://www.cnn.com/2012/04/12/showbiz/gibson-alleged-rants/ )
Also, when he was bleeped Ricky said "What the fuck does sugar tits mean?"

-Ricky's got a new beer... what will he say next?

-Best song. Pretty lackluster this year.  Writing's on the Wall-Sam Smith from Spectre. We can all agree that, as modern Bond songs go, this is no Skyfall by Adele, right? 4/8.

-Actress-Limited series/TV movie. Lady Gaga????????? In American Horror Story. We've seen it all, right? So the Globes do tend to be a little into their stars. (Not so) fun fact: Madonna (Evita) beat Frances McDormand (Fargo) in 1996. And check out this!

https://twitter.com/KateAurthur/status/686378657225568256

-Alright Ricky.... that Brad/Angelina joke was funny.

-Foreign Language Film. Son of Saul. 4/7 now.

-Actor in a TV Comedy. Gael Garcia Bernal (Mozart in the Jungle) over Jeffrey Tambor. WHY ARE THEY IGNORING THE SECOND SEASON OF TRANSPARENT??? This also makes Aziz Ansari's stunt (Reading the book "Losing to Jeffrey Tambor with Dignity") kind of awkward.

-Screenplay. Aaron Sorkin for Steve Jobs.  Whoa!  I definitely thought this was a Spotlight vs. The Big Short fight, although this might be my favorite screenplay of the nominated ones. I'm sucking in these predictions. 3/6.  Happy for the movie tonight. It's really good and really bombed at the box office.

Sly pulls out the best speech of the night too.  If you guys haven't seen Creed yet, please do. It's really good.

-Supporting Actor to Sly Stallone in Creed. Didn't predict this one. Stallone was really solid in this movie, and clearly a sentimental favorite, but how did they not nominate Michael B. Jordan for his incredible lead performance? Missed this one so I'm now 3/5.

-Animated to Inside Out of course. 3/4. Fun fact: director Pete Doctor just mentioned his wife Amanda, who was my wife's babysitter!

-Kate Hudson gets my vote for worst dressed of the night.

-Actor in a Comedy/Musical. Matt Damon in The Martian. 2/3 now.  The Martian was fun but has been a bit overhyped (IMO) as a "best" of the year. But no arguments with Damon's performance. It really carried the movie.

-Is Joy one of those movies where the previews look great and then it disappoints?  That's what I've heard.

-JLaw and AShu.  Up against each other tonight! Do they use the same hair dye?

-OK, just saw the Morricone has actually won two Golden Globes.... odd that Tarantino wouldn't know that.  Drunk, perhaps?

-Actor in a Drama. Jon Hamm in Mad Men! Still missing the Sterling Cooper gang.

-Jamie Foxx... and there's our Steve Harvey joke of the night. Best Score goes to Ennio Morricone for The Hateful Eight. 1/2 now. Quentin Tarantino accepting for him- giving a really fun speech.

-Supporting Actor- Christian Slater in Mr. Robot. Another one I haven't seen of course.

-Spy had some good moments for sure, but it was no Bridesmaids, right?

-Actor in a TV Movie.  Oscar Isaac in Show Me a Hero!!! Finally one I've seen. This is a great miniseries written by David Simon of The Wire.  And I love Oscar (Llewyn Davis forever!).

-Limited TV Series goes to Wolf Hall.  Supposed to be good- maybe I'll check it out.

-Gervais still has his glass of beer- think it's still his first?

-TV Comedy. Mozart in the Jungle..... what???? Not Transparent.  That Season 2 was incredible. The Globes do tend to go for the new shiny shows though.

-Actress-TV Comedy- Rachel Bloom (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend). No idea what this show is about.

-Supporting Actress-TV: Maura Tierney in The Affair.  One I haven't seen.  So many shows to watch, so little time.  I did used to like her a lot on ER back in the day.

-Supporting Actress in a movie: Kate Winslet! A bit of a shocker here.  I know some had problems with her accent in Steve Jobs, but I thought she was great in the movie.  0/1 so far.

-First few jokes are about trans people/characters.  Just as expected.

-As Ricky is showing front and center, this is the awards show where everyone gets to drink!

-Ricky Gervais.... too bad they couldn't get Tina Fey and Amy Poehler back. His schtick worked better in The Office and Extras than live.
















Red Carpet

All right folks, I'm no Joan Rivers in the fashion coverage department, but I'll see if I can manage a snarky comment or two.

-Why does Matt Lauer get this gig?

-I'll just say I've loved new it-girl Alicia Vikander for a while- she had a great supporting part in Anna Karenina and was in foreign nominee A Royal Affair a few years ago.

-Viola Davis is amazing but I just can't get into these Shonda Rimes shows. Not my bag.

-Amy Schumer with her sister: "We're both on fleek."

-Jamie Foxx's daughter is our awkward Miss Golden Globe for the night. And wearing a terrible dress.

-Denzel up for the Lifetime Achievement award. Well deserved!

-Just spotted Kate Hudson. Has anyone else had such lasting celebrity for such mediocre output over the years?  It's been 15 years since Almost Famous!

-And.... Rooney Mara will win the award for most oddly-styled nominee. She's definitely smiling more than she did a few years ago though.






Predictions (Film Awards Only)
It's been a while since I've blogged, and it's been an unpredictable year full of great movies. The Globes can be notoriously hard to predict, but I'll do my best. As for what I HOPE will win, put me on team Mad Max (!!!!!), Brooklyn, The Big Short, and Carol, perhaps in that order. Here's a quick rundown.

Picture, Drama

Carol, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight

Will Win:Spotlight
Might Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max Fury Road

Actor, Drama

Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant), Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs), Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl), Will Smith (Concussion)

Will Win: DiCaprio
Might Win: Fassbender (but DiCaprio's got this pretty locked down)
Should Win: I've only seen Steve Jobs here, and Fassbender would make a nice winner.

Actress, Drama

Cate Blanchett (Carol), Brie Larson (Room), Rooney Mara (Carol), Saorsie Ronan (Brooklyn), Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)

Will Win: Larson
Might Win: Ronan
Should Win: Ronan (but wow, what a category)

Picture, Comedy/Musical

The Big Short, Joy, The Martian, Spy, Trainwreck

Will Win: The Big Short
Might Win: The Martian
Should Win: The Big Short

Actor, Comedy/Musical

Christian Bale (The Big Short), Steve Carell (The Big Short), Matt Damon (The Martian), Al Pacino (Danny Collins), Mark Ruffalo (Infinitely Polar Bear)

Will Win: Damon
Might Win: Carell
Should Win: Bale

Actress, Comedy/Musical

Jennifer Lawrence (Joy), Melissa McCarthy (Spy), Amy Schumer (Trainwreck), Maggie Smith (The Lady in the Van), Lily Tomlin (Grandma)

Will Win: Schumer
Might Win: Lawrence
Should Win: Schumer

Supporting Actor

Paul Dano (Love & Mercy), Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), Michael Shannon (99 Homes), Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

Will Win: Rylance
Might Win: Stallone
Should Win: Dano

Supporting Actress

Jane Fonda (Youth), Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight), Helen Mirren (Trumbo), Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina), Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

Will Win: Vikander
Might Win: Leigh
Should Win: Vikander

Director

Todd Haynes (Carol), Alejandro Gonzales Innaritu (The Revenant), Thomas McCarthy (Spotlight), George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road), Ridley Scott (The Martian)

Will Win: Miller
Might Win: Scott (really almost anyone could take this
Should Win: Miller

Screenplay

The Big Short, The Hateful Eight, Room, Spotlight, Steve Jobs

Will Win: Spotlight
Might Win: The Big Short
Should Win: Steve Jobs

Score

Carol, The Danish Girl, The Hateful Eight, The Revenant, Steve Jobs

Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Might Win: Carol
Should Win: Carol

Song

Love Me Like You Do (50 Shades of Gray), One Kind of Love (Love and Mercy), See You Again (Furious 7), Simple Song #3 (Youth),  Writing's On the Wall (Spectre)

Will Win: One Kind of Love???
Might Win: Writing's On the Wall
Should Win: Simple Song #3

Foreign Film

The Brand New Testament, The Club, The FencerMustang, Son of Saul

Will Win: Son of Saul
Could Win: Mustang
Should Win: Haven't seen any, so I abstain!

Animated Film

Anomalisa, The Good Dinosaur, Inside Out, The Peanuts Movie, Shaun the Sheep Movie

Will Win: Inside Out
Could Win: Anomalisa
Should Win: I've only seen Inside Out, and it's great!