Nomination run-down

They are here!  The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road cleaned up with, respectively, 12 and 10 nominations.  


Thoughts:

-After a confusing precursor season, the Oscars actually only left us with a few big surprises. The biggest things most weren't predicting were Tom Hardy (The Revenant) for Supporting Actor and Lenny Abrahamson (Room) for Director.

-The biggest snub was definitely Ridley Scott (The Martian) for Director, who many thought was the most likely winner. Another snub was Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation) for Supporting Actor, which also means we get the second year in a row of 20 white people and the hashtag #oscarssowhite. This can't be blamed on no choices. Besides Elba, Michael B. Jordan (Creed) would have made a great Best Actor candidate to go in a somewhat weak category.

-Not a total snub but a disappointment was Carol missing out on Best Picture, despite its 6 nominations. Director Todd Haynes may always be a little too art-house to make it big.

-This year, I had the exact same stats as last year, 36/43 for 84% in the categories I predicted. Not too bad I think.

Stats: (36/43) 84% 

Below are the nominees, my thoughts, and in italics my foolish first predictions of who will eventually win.

Picture
Spotlight
The Big Short
The Martian
The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Room

7/8

Just like last year, we ended up with 8 nominees. I had predicted Carol instead of Room, although I had Room right on the cusp so no major surprises here. All in all, a pretty interesting group of films this year, although Carol and Ex Machina would have made my day!  I'm especially pleased the beautiful Brooklyn made it through. My guess is that this will boil down to a Spotlight vs. The Big Short, unless The Revenant keeps up momentum. I don't dare to hope that Mad Max: Fury Road will pull through, as awesome as that would be.

Director

Alejandro G. Innarritu, The Revenant
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
Lenny Abrahamson, Room

4/5

I (and everyone else online) predicted Ridley Scott for The Martian, whose spot got taken by Lenny Abrahamson in Room.

Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Matt Damon, The Martian
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

5/5

The easiest category to predict, and it went as expected. No more drama to see here folks. No one can touch Leo for this Oscar.

Actress

Brie Larson, Room
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

4/5

I predicted Oscars would put in Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) instead of Lawrence, but the category fraud worked, so Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara both ended up in Supporting, leaving room for Rampling and Lawrence.  With Room making it in both Picture and Director, I think Brie Larson has the steam.

Supporting Actor

Locks
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight 
Tom Hardy, The Revenant

4/5

I had guessed Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation) instead of Hardy.  This contest will end up being Stallone vs. Rylance I think, with Bale having an outside shot.

Supporting Actress

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Rooney Mara, Carol
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

4/5

I predicted Helen Mirren (Trumbo) over Rachel McAdams, who was frankly fine but not overly impressive in Spotlight. Either Mara or Vikander, with their huge "supporting" roles, will likely win here.

Original Screenplay

Spotlight
Inside Out
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Straight Outta Compton

4/5

Tarantino missed out for The Hateful Eight and they went with Straight Outta Compton. It's hard to see Spotlight losing here.

Adapted Screenplay

The Big Short
The Martian
Brooklyn
Room
Carol

4/5

I'm happy to see Carol here, but sad it was at the expense of the excellent Steve Jobs screenplay. This one seems destined to go to The Big Short.

Film Editing

The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars, The Force Awakens

Foreign Language Film

Embrace of the Serpent, Colombia
Mustang, France
Son of Saul, Hungary
Theeb, Jordan
A War, Denmark

Original Score

Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
SIcario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Production Design

Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Visual Effects

Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Animated Feature

Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie was There

Cinematography

Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

Costume Design

Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

Documentary-Feature

Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom

Documentary Short

Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom

Makeup

Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-year-old man Who Climbed Out a Window and Disappeared
The Revenant

Song

Earned It, 50 Shades of Gray
Manta Ray, Racing Extinction
Simple Song #3, Youth
Til it Happens to You, The Hunting Ground
Writings on the Wall, Spectre

Look guys! 50 Shades of Gray is an Oscar nominee. And maybe winner?

Animated Short

Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay's Super Team
We Can't Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow

Live Action Short

Ave Maria
Day One
Everything will be OK
Shok
Stutterer

Sound Editing

Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Sound Mixing

Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens