Final Predictions

This has probably been the most up in the air Oscar season since I've started blogging, with lots of unknowns throughout just about all categories. You'll see my contenders list is pretty long throughout just to cover my ass! I'll be shocked if I do better than average in my percentages, but I'll take it if it means an Oscar race this exciting.

A few wishes for tomorrow morning:

-Mad Max leads nominations
-Ex Machina makes it in for Best Picture
-Brooklyn gets in for Picture, Actress (a given), and Screenplay
-Michael B. Jordan somehow makes it in for Creed.

Picture

Locks
1. Spotlight
2. The Big Short

Very Likely
3. The Martian
4. The Revenant
5. Mad Max: Fury Road

Possible
6. Bridge of Spies
7. Brooklyn
8. Carol
Room
Straight Outta Compton
Inside Out
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Ex Machina
Creed
The Danish Girl
Trumbo

Oscars can go from 5-10 nominees, and I'm going to guess this is an 8 year like last year.

Director

Very Likely
1. Ridley Scott, The Martian
2. Alejandro G. Innaritu, The Revenant
3. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Possible
4. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
5. Adam McKay, The Big Short
Todd Haynes, Carol
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
John Crowley, Brooklyn
Dennis Villenue, Sicario
Lenny Abrahamson, Room


Actor

Locks
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Very Likely
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
4. Matt Damon, The Martian
5. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Possible
Steve Carell, The Big Short
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Ian McKellan, Mr. Holmes
Michael Caine, Youth
Jacob Tremblay, Room

This is the one category that seems to have gelled, but there's probably room for an upset. If there is an upset, my strong hunch is it will be Carell as The Big Short has picked up steam.

Actress

Locks
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol

Possible
4. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Rooney Mara, Carol (If voters reject the Supporting campaign)
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Emily Blunt, Sicario
Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold

Vikander is being campaigned for Supporting, but Oscar voters very well may put their foot down on the category and decide she belongs in lead.  The same with Rooney Mara, but I'm guessing she stays in supporting. That fifth slot seems like a fight between Rampling and Lawrence.

Supporting Actor

Locks
1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Very Likely
2. Christian Bale, The Big Short
3. Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Possible
4. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
5. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
Benicio del Toro, Sicario
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Jacob Tremblay, Room

I will be 100% shocked if I nail this category. It's been all over the place this season, and I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the contenders in the last two spots. I toyed with leaving Ruffalo off, but if Spotlight is really strong it would make sense to have some acting nominations to go with it. If Elba misses here, we'll probably end up with another #oscarssowhite year,.
Supporting Actress

Very Likely
1. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
2. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (or for The Danish Girl if voters put it here instead of lead)
3. Rooney Mara, Carol

Possible
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Jane Fonda, Youth
Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Julie Walters, Brooklyn
Joan Allen, Room.

Another really confusing category, so much so I'm not willing to call anyone a lock. Many are predicting McAdams, but its a really unshowy role.  In words I never thought I'd say, I'm really hoping for Kristen Stewart, who has won lots of the critics awards for her role in a great small movie, to get in here.

Original Screenplay

Locks
1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out

Very Likely
3. The Hateful Eight

Possible
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Ex Machina
Sicario
Trainwreck
Joy

Adapted Screenplay

Locks
1. The Big Short

Very Likely
2. Steve Jobs
3. The Martian

Possible
4. Brooklyn
5. Room
Carol
The Revenant
Anomalisa
45 Years
Creed
The Danish Girl

There seems to be a sense that Carol is fading. If so, I think this is one place we might see it drop out.