Oscar Nomination Predictions

With Oscar nominations coming up Tuesday, here are my best bets in the major categories, listed in order of likelihood.

In all likelihood The Shape of Water will lead with the most nominations, probably followed by Dunkirk.


Picture

Locks
1.Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. The Shape of Water
3. Get Out
4. Lady Bird
5. Dunkirk

Likely
6. Call Me By Your Name

Possible
7. The Post
8. I, Tonya
The Big Sick
The Florida Project
Darkest Hour
Mudbound
Phantom Thread
Wonder Woman
Phantom Thread
Molly's Game

The top 5 feel extremely locked.  We could have anywhere between 5-10, though, and that's where things get murky. I'm pretty confident Call Me By Your Name will also make it due to its passionate fan base.

While I think The Post is likely to make it in, I could also see it being snubbed. It's lost out on a lot of the precursors. After that, there's a bunch of movies that could make it. I'm pulling hard for The Florida Project, my favorite of the year.

Director

Lock
1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Likely
2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

Possible
3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
4. Martin McDonough, Three Billboards
5. Jordan Peele, Get Out
Luca Guadignino, Call Me By Your Name
Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Dennis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049
Dee Rees, Mudbound
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

Please God let both Gerwig and Peele get in!

Actor

Locks
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

Likely
3. Daniel Day Lewis, Phantom Thread

Possible
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
5. James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Tom Hanks, The Post
Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger

The Franco sexual harrassment allegations hit right during Oscar voting. Will it make a difference? It seems like most (but not all) ballots had probably already been filled out, so it's hard to say.

Actress

Locks
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
2. Saorsie Ronan, Lady Bird

Likely
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
5. Meryl Streep, The Post

Possible
Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool

The top 5 have felt locked up for a long time. There's no reason to think they won't be the lineup.

Supporting Actor

Locks
1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Likely
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

Possible
4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards
5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Steve Carrell, Battle of the Sexes

This category feels murky. While he's missed a lot of precursors, I'm going with Stuhlbarg. How can you see Call Me By Your Name and NOT vote for him?

Supporting Actress

Locks
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Likely
3. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

Possible
4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Catherine Keener, Get Out
Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour

The toughest category to predict. I would LOVE a Haddish nomination, as long as it's not at the expense of Holly Hunter.

Original Screenplay

Locks
1. Get Out
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird

Possible
4. The Big Sick
5. The Shape of Water
I, Tonya
The Post
Phantom Thread
The Florida Project

An insanely competitive category, so a major Best Picture contender will certainly be left off.

Adapted Screenplay

Locks
1. Call Me By Your Name

Likely
2. Mudbound
3. Molly's Game

Possible
4. The Disaster Artist
5. Logan
Wonder
Wonder Woman
The Lost City of Z
Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool


I strangely underpopulated category this year, as most of the big movies are in Original Screenplay.