Nominations!

And here they are!

A few thoughts:

• In my predictions, I got 38/44 in the 8 major categories for a score of 86%. Last year was my personal record with 91%, but cheers to a less predictable race!
• The Shape of Water leads with 13 nominations. Coincidentally, it's also my least favorite of the ones I've seen... I'll be catching up with Three Billboards, Darkest Hour, and The Post.
• Biggest (happy) surprise for me was the impressive showing for Phantom Thread, with unexpected nods in Picture, Director, and Supporting Actress. It's not a movie for everyone's taste, but I loved it and PT Anderson is a true visionary.
• My favorite category is easily Best Director. I was very worried they would leave off either Jordan Peele or Greta Gerwig, and they didn't. Plus, a Paul Thomas Anderson nomination!
• My saddest exclusions were in the Supporting categories. I actually prefer the unnominated Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name) and Holly Hunter (The Big Sick) to any of the nominees in their respective categories.
• With only 2 nominations (Picture and Actress), The Post really underperformed expectations. Nevertheless, Meryl Streep keeps topping her previous records with ease, earning her 21st acting nomination.

On to the list, and a few thoughts on the race as it stands now.

Best Picture:

“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”“Dunkirk”“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”“Phantom Thread”“The Post”“The Shape of Water”“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

I got 7/9 here. I thought I, Tonya would get in, and didn't predict Darkest Hour or Phantom Thread. Of what I've seen, this is a pretty great lineup.  I love 5 of them and am mixed on The Shape of Water. I've yet to see 3 Billboards, The Post, and Darkest Hour.

Should have been here: My favorite of the year, The Florida Project.  

Will Win: Conventional wisdom and precursor support say it's Three Billboards vs. The Shape of Water. I have a sneaking feeling those two may have peakeda little too soon, and we could see a come from behind win from Lady Bird or Get Out.  I think this is a truly tight race.

Lead Actor:

Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

I went 4/5, putting in James Franco (The Disaster Artist) and missing Denzel Washington in a movie people really didn't talk about much.

Should have been here: Nothing jumps out.  I loved the performances of Chalamet, Day-Lewis, and Kaluuya.

Will Win: Oldman. For a minute in the season, it looked Chalamet had a shot for his transcendent performance, but Darkest Hour seems well-loved and should easily pull Oldman to a win.

Lead Actress:

Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

I went 5/5 in this expected lineup, as did most pundits.

Should have been here: Vicky Krieps for Phantom Thread. She's just as good as nominees Daniel Day-Lewis and Lesley Manville, and her performance is perhaps the most crucial in making Phantom Thread work.

Will Win: Most likely McDormand, with a small chance Ronan gets in.

Supporting Actor:

Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

I went 4/5 here, picking Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name), over Plummer.  Plummer makes history here as the oldest acting nominee ever, beating out Gloria Stuart from Titanic.

Should have been here: Stuhlbarg!! He is incredible in Call Me By Your Name.

Will Win: Probably Rockwell, unless the Three Billboards backlash comes on strong and Dafoe wins.

Supporting Actress:

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

I went 4/5 here, missing Manville for Holly Hunter (The Big Sick). 

Should have been here: Hunter for my favorite supporting performance of the year. I'm thrilled Manville made it, but couldn't she have replaced Spencer, who didn't have much to do in The Shape of Water? I'd also have loved to see Tiffany Haddish get in for Girls trip.

Will Win: Probably Allison Janney, but don't count out Laurie Metcalf in the much-loved Lady Bird.

Director:

“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

I went 4/5 here, missing PT Anderson for Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards).  What a great list!! I literally yelped when Peele, Gerwig, and PT Anderson all made it, along with Nolan finally getting a nomination after being snubbed for years. 

Should have been here: Sean Baker for The Florida Project. With his on location shooting and mixing of child actors, nonprofessionals, and veteran actors, it's a remarkable achievement.

Will Win: del Toro seems to be running away with this, which is too bad because all four of the others deserve to be in the conversation for the win.

Adapted Screenplay:

“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

I went 5/5 here.  Fun fact: Logan is the first superhero movie to get a Best Screenplay nomination.

Should have been here: The Lost City of Z.

Will win: Call Me by Your Name.  This seems to be one of the surest wins this year.

Original Screenplay:

“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh

I went 5/5 here in a competititve category.

Should have been here: Phantom Thread. As well as it did, I'm surprised it didn't show up here as well.

Will Win: Tough call. It's Get Out vs. Lady Bird vs. Three Billboards, and could go any which way.

Animated Feature:

“The Boss Baby,” Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito
“The Breadwinner,” Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo
“Coco,” Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson
“Ferdinand,” Carlos Saldanha
“Loving Vincent,” Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Sean Bobbitt, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman

Animated Short:

“Dear Basketball,” Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant“Garden Party,” Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon
“Lou,” Dave Mullins, Dana Murray
“Negative Space,” Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata
“Revolting Rhymes,” Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer

Cinematography:

“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins
“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel
“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema
“Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison
“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen

Best Documentary Feature:

“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail,” Steve James, Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman
“Faces Places,” JR, Agnès Varda, Rosalie Varda
“Icarus,” Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan
“Last Men in Aleppo,” Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed, Soren Steen Jepersen
“Strong Island,” Yance Ford, Joslyn Barne

Best Docume

ntary Short Subject:

“Edith+Eddie,” Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright
“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405,” Frank Stiefel
“Heroin(e),” Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin Sheldon“Knife Skills,” Thomas Lennon“Traffic Stop,” Kate Davis, David Heilbroner

Best Live Action Short Film:

“DeKalb Elementary,” Reed Van Dyk
“The Eleven O’Clock,” Derin Seale, Josh Lawson
“My Nephew Emmett,” Kevin Wilson, Jr.
“The Silent Child,” Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton
“Watu Wote/All of Us,” Katja Benrath, Tobias Rosen

Best Foreign Language Film:

“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)
“The Insult” (Lebanon)
“Loveless” (Russia)
“On Body and Soul (Hungary)“The Square” (Sweden)

Film Editing:

“Baby Driver,” Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss
“Dunkirk,” Lee Smith
“I, Tonya,” Tatiana S. Riegel
“The Shape of Water,” Sidney Wolinsky
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Jon Gregory

Sound Editing:

“Baby Driver,” Julian Slater
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mark Mangini, Theo Green
“Dunkirk,” Alex Gibson, Richard King
“The Shape of Water,” Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood

Sound Mixing:

“Baby Driver,” Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mac Ruth, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill
“Dunkirk,” Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo
“The Shape of Water,” Glen Gauthier, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick

Production Design:

“Beauty and the Beast,” Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer
“Blade Runner 2049,” Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
“Darkest Hour,” Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer“Dunkirk,” Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
“The Shape of Water,” Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau

Original Score:

“Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer
“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood
“The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell

Original Song:

“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens
“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul

Makeup and Hair:

“Darkest Hour,” Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick“Victoria and Abdul,” Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
“Wonder,” Arjen Tuiten

Costume Design:

“Beauty and the Beast,” Jacqueline Durran
“Darkest Hour,” Jacqueline Durran
“Phantom Thread,” Mark Bridges
“The Shape of Water,” Luis Sequeira
“Victoria and Abdul,” Consolata Boyle

Visual Effects:

“Blade Runner 2049,” John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, Gerd Nefzer
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2,” Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick
“Kong: Skull Island,” Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,”  Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Chris Corbould, Neal Scanlan
“War for the Planet of the Apes,” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist