How'd I do. Well, I got 20 out of 24 (83%), perhaps largely because it was a predictable night, although I am pleased I picked Shape of Water. I missed Documentary, Documentary Short, Live Action Short, and Song.
Here they are, my final predictions! I'm betting on these films coming away with multiple wins:
-4 for The Shape of Water (Picture, Director, Score, Production Design)
-3 for Dunkirk (Film Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)
-2 for 3 Billboards (Actress, Supporting Actor)
-2 for Darkest Hour (Actor, Makeup and Hairstyling)
-2 for Blade Runner 2049 (Cinematography, Visual Effects)
Best Picture
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Lady Bird
This category feels like a genuine race this year, and I've had an incredibly difficult time figuring it out. Here's my take on the major contenders:
The Shape of Water would seem to have a lot of what it needs. It won the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild, and got (by far) the most nominations. But.... it doesn't feel like a ton of people are super passionate about it. Guillermo del Toro is almost sure to win Director, but those awards haven't matched in recent years. I'm predicting this, but I'm also kind of doubtful.
Three Billboards won the Golden Globe, and SAG, and BAFTA, and is almost sure to win two acting awards. But.... it's really divisive, at least among critics. Can it really win on the preferential ballot system? (For those who don't know, Best Picture, and only Best Picture, uses a sort of instant-runoff voting system rather than a plurality vote.)
Get Out is easily the cultural movie of the year. After Moonlight winning last year, it feels like this could happen. But... it didn't get that many nominations and hasn't won anything major yet. Can it really happen?
Then you have some dark horses in Lady Bird and Dunkirk. They are both well-liked movies that will probably rank low on relatively few people's ballots. They could do well based on broad-based appeal. Could one of them surprise?
Actor
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Will Win: Oldman
Could Win: Chalamet
Should Win: Chalamet!!!!
For a minute in the awards season, it looked like Chalamet could make this a race for his incredible performance. Now it looks like no one can catch Oldman, a good actor who I think gives an infinitely less interesting performance than Chalamet, Kaluuya, or Day-Lewis.
Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saorsie Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
Will Win: McDormand
Could Win: Ronan
Should Win: Ronan
This category originally seemed pretty competitive, but now seems locked in for McDormand to win her second Oscar.
Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will Win: Rockwell
Could Win: Dafoe
Should Win: Dafoe (In the year's best movie!!)
Rockwell has this in the bag, sadly, since I adore both The Florida Project and Dafoe's performance.
Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Will Win: Janney
Could Win: Metcalf
Should Win: Metcalf
While Janney has run away with all the televised awards, and is the safe bet, I still have a hunch Metcalf might have more of a chance than people think. I sure hope so.
Director
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Will Win: del Toro
Could Win: Nolan
Should Win: Gerwig
Seems like a slam dunk for del Toro. I'd honestly prefer any of the others, but won't begrudge the delightful del Toro this win.
Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
Could Win: Mudbound
Should Win: Call Me By Your Name
One of the few categories I'm confident the Academy will get write. The great writer-director James Ivory will finally win an Oscar at 89 years old.
Original Screenplay
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will Win: Get Out
Could Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Get Out
This is a real nailbiter. If Three Billboards wins here, I think it will probably win Best Picture. Get Out is just soooo well-written though, this seems like a good place to honor it. There's an outside chance that Greta Gerwig's script for Lady Bird could come through. Like Best Picture, this is a very competitive race.
Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
There's some really great work in this category (including the first female nominated in this category- Rachel Morrison for Mudbound), but I think this is the year they finally give the award to Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049) for his 14th nomination. It will be well deserved.
Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul
Will Win: Phantom Thread
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Phantom Thread!
They have to go with the great movie about a fashion designer, right? I sure hope so.
Production Design
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Film Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver
Should Win: Dunkirk
Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder
Will Win: Darkest Hour
Could Win: Wonder
Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
A tight race between Blade Runner and the Apes. While the work on Apes is perhaps more technically impressive, I think Blade Runner is more respected and feels entirely integrated into the story.
Music (Original Score)
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Phantom Thread
Should Win: Phantom Thread (!!!)
Few wins would make me happier than Johnny Greenwood (or Radiohead) winning for Phantom Thread, a score sure to become an all-time classic.
Music (Original Song)
"Mighty River," Mudbound
"Mystery of Love," Call Me By Your Name
"Remember Me," Coco
"Stand Up for Something," Marshall
"This is Me," The Greatest Showman
Will Win: "This is Me"
Could Win: "Remember Me"
Should Win: "Mystery of Love"
Even though I think "This is Me" is fairly bad, it's the biggest hit of the bunch. I would be over the moon if Sufjan Stevens won here.
Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver
Should Win: Dunkirk
Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver
Should Win: Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver
Should Win: Dunkirk
Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman, Chile
The Insult, Lebanon
Loveless, Russia
On Body and Soul, Hungary
The Square, Sweden
Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
Could Win: The Square
Animated Film
Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Will Win: Coco
Could Win: The Breadwinner
I haven't seen any of these yet, but this is another lock for Coco.
Documentary
Abacus
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Man in Aleppo
Strong Island
Will Win: Faces Places
Could Win: Icarus
I've only seen Strong Island here, which is good but not great. The buzz and critical acclaim seems to be with Faces Places, but there's a good chance the Olympics-themed Icarus could win as well.
Documentary (Short Subject)
Edith + Eddie
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop
Will Win: Edith + Eddie
Could Win: Heroin(e)
This category is always kind of a crapshoot. I did watch Heroin(e) on Netflix, which was quite good!
Animated Short
Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes
Will Win: Dear Basketball
Could Win: Garden Party
Another crapshoot, but based on what other critics are saying, it seems very possible we could be saying Oscar winner Kobe Bryant.
Live Action Short
DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O'Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote/All of Us
Will Win: DeKalb Elementary
Could Win: The Silent Child
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