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Saturday, February 5, 2022

Nomination Predictions

While this blog is clearly little read (or written!) at this point, I do still enjoy putting my predictions here for posterity's sake. So, in order of likelihood: 

Picture 
The Power of the Dog 
Belfast 
Dune 
West Side Story 
Licorice Pizza 
CODA 
Don't Look Up 
King Richard 
tick, tick...BOOM 
Being the Ricardos 

Possibilities 
Drive My Car 
The Tragedy of Macbeth 
House of Gucci 
The Lost Daughter 
Nightmare Alley
Parallel Mothers 

8/10: Missed Drive My Car & Nightmare Alley (huh??) for my last two.

Director
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Dennis Villeneuve, Dune
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

Possibilities
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers
Adam McKay, Don't Look Up
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Sian Heder, CODA
Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World

4/5. A shocking Villeneuve miss, which means Spielberg still got in.

Actress
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

Possibilities
Kirsten Stewart, Spencer
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Renate Reinseve, The Worst Person in the World
Emilia Jones, CODA
Tessa Thompson, Passing
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth

This race is wild... I honestly think only Nicole Kidman is "safe" for a nomination.

3/5, which is about the best anyone did!  Stewart and Cruz (my two runners-up) were in over Gaga and Haim.

Actor
Will Smith, King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick...BOOM
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up

Possibilities
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Nicolas Cage, Pig
Simon Rex, Red Rocket
Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley

4/5. Bardem instead of DiCaprio

Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Aunjuane Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing

Possibilities
Ann Dowd, Mass
Marlee Matlin, CODA
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth

3/5. Buckley and Dench over Balfe and Negga (my saddest omission)

Supporting Actor
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

Possibilities
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Mike Faist, West Side Story
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

4/5.  Simmons over Cooper. So happy for Plemmons!

Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog
The Lost Daughter
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune

Possibilities
West Side Story
Passing
The Tragedy of Macbeth
tick, tick...BOOM
Nightmare Alley
Cyrano
House of Gucci
The Last Duel

5/5! My only one I think.

Original Screenplay
Belfast
Licorice Pizza
Don't Look Up
Being the Ricardos
King Richard

Possibilities
The French Dispatch
Parallel Mothers
Mass
C'mon C'mon
The Worst Person in the World
Pig
A Hero

4/5. The Worst Person in the World instead of Being the Ricardos.