For anyone filling out Oscar pools, here are my picks for what will, could, and should win.
If you don’t feel like reading through the whole thing, I’m predicting the multiple winners will be:
-Roma with 4 (Picture, Director, Cinematography, Foreign)
-Bohemian Rhapsody with 2 (Actor and Sound Mixing)
-If Beale Street Could Talk with 2 (Supporting Actress and Original Score)
-The Favourite with 2 (Original Screenplay and Production Design)
-Black Panther with 2 (Costume Design and Sound Editing)
-Vice with 2 (Makeup and Film Editing)
Best Picture:
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”
“Vice”
Will Win: Roma
Could Win: Green Book
Should Win: Roma
On paper, none of these movies really seem to be primed for the win. Let’s go down the list, in my order of most to least likely (although it’s really hard to figure out this year)
Roma
Pros: Critical hit of the year, won most of the critics’ groups, Broadcast Film Critics award, and got a ton of nominations (10).
Con: Can it become the only foreign language film to ever win? AND the first Netflix film ever? On paper, it seems unlikely. Will some Oscar voters find it “too slow” or “too arty”?
Green Book
Pros: Won the Golden Globe and the Producers Guild award, a pleasant movie that most viewers will probably enjoy.
Cons: Like 3 Billboards last year, it has faced some tough criticism due to its racial politics. Also, no Best Director nomination.
Black Panther
Pros: Won the SAG ensemble award, humongous hit that everyone either likes or loves, which could help in a year of divisive movies.
Cons: No Best Director nomination, and I question whether the Academy will give a win to a superhero movie.
Bohemian Rhapsody
Pros: Huge hit, for some reason many people seem to love it, Rami Malek will probably win.
Cons: Not critically praised, surely some Academy members are putting this one on the bottom.
BlackKklansman:
Pros: Topical, has gotten lots of precursor support, many people would like to see Spike Lee triumph.
Cons: Always nominated, but hasn’t really won anything important in the precursor races.
A Star is Born
Pros: Seemed like an early frontrunner that everyone liked.
Cons: Also seems like it’s run out of steam. Cooper missing Best Director was a sign.
The Favourite
Pros: Tied for most nominations, a movie many love.
Cons: Too British or too weird for the Academy? Probably has a few haters that will keep it from the win.
Vice
Pros: Lots of nominations, including Best Director.
Cons: The one movie I honestly can’t even imagine winning. Does anyone really LOVE it?
Lead Actress:
Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Will Win: Close
Could Win: Colman
Should Win: Colman
A great category this year. Glenn Close is actually my least favorite performance of the five, but I won’t mind seeing her finally win on her 7th nomination.
Lead Actor:
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
Will Win: Malek
Could Win: Bale
Should Win: Cooper
Unlike the lead actresses, this is such a lackluster category this year. I’m so sick of actors playing real people always winning. Cooper is clearly the MVP of the nominees.
Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
Will Win: King
Could Win: Weisz
Should Win: King
Another really strong category. This seems like a genuine race between King and Weisz, who are both amazing.
Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”
Will Win: Ali
Could Win: Grant
Should Win: Grant
It seems locked up, although I would LOVE to see Grant win.
Director:
Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Adam McKay, “Vice”
Will Win: Cuaron
Could Win: Lee
Should Win: Cuaron
Anyone besides Cuaron winning would be a huge shock.
Adapted Screenplay:
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Joel Coen , Ethan Coen
“BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins
“A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
Will Win: BlacKkKlansman
Could Win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
This feels like a 3-way race between Klansman, Beal Street, and Can You Ever… My guess is they take the opportunity to award Klansman and Spike Lee here.
Original Screenplay:
“The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
“First Reformed,” Paul Schrader
“Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“Vice,” Adam McKay
Will Win: The Favourite
Could Win: Green Book
Should Win: First Reformed
Although Green Book won the Golden Globe, The Favourite’s witty dialogue feels like a classic Original Screenplay winner.
Cinematography:
“Cold War,” Lukasz Zal
“The Favourite,” Robbie Ryan
“Never Look Away,” Caleb Deschanel
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“A Star Is Born,” Matthew Libatique
Will Win: Roma
Could Win: Cold War
Should Win: Cold War
Film Editing:
“BlacKkKlansman,” Barry Alexander Brown
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Ottman
“Green Book,” Patrick J. Don Vito
“The Favourite,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis
“Vice,” Hank Corwin
Will Win: Vice
Could Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Should Win: The Favourite
I actually have no idea who is winning this… although they often go for “Most Editing,” which gives Vice an advantage.
Production Design:
“Black Panther,” Hannah Beachler
“First Man,” Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
“The Favourite,” Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
“Mary Poppins Returns,” John Myhre, Gordon Sim
“Roma,” Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez
Will Win: The Favourite
Could Win: Black Panther
Should Win: Roma
Costume Design:
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Mary Zophres
“Black Panther,” Ruth E. Carter
“The Favourite,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Queen of Scots,” Alexandra Byrne
Will Win: Black Panther
Could Win: The Favourite
Should Win: Black Panther
Both Costumes and Production design feel like VERY close races between The Favourite and Black Panther, so I’m predicting a split.
Original Score:
“BlacKkKlansman,” Terence Blanchard
“Black Panther,” Ludwig Goransson
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell
“Isle of Dogs,” Alexandre Desplat
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
Will Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Could Win: BlacKkKlansman
Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Beale Street is one of the best scores ever. If it loses, I’ll be very upset.
Original Song:
“All The Stars” from “Black Panther” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
“I’ll Fight” from “RBG” by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns” by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch
Will Win: In the sha-low, the sha-la-low….
Could Win: “All the Stars” (but….nope)
Should Win: “Shallow” (although props to my all-time faves Dave and Gillian for getting nominated for their lovely song from Buster Scruggs)
Biggest lock of the night.
Makeup and Hair:
“Border”
“Mary Queen of Scots”
“Vice”
Will Win: Vice
Could Win: Mary Queen of Scots
Visual Effects:
“Avengers: Infinity War”
“Christopher Robin”
“First Man”
“Ready Player One”
“Solo: A Star Wars Story”
Will Win: First Man
Could Win: Avengers: Infinity War
While Avengers: Infinity War might seem like an effects winner, the Oscar often goes a little more highbrow.
Animated Feature:
“Incredibles 2,” Brad Bird
“Isle of Dogs,” Wes Anderson
“Mirai,” Mamoru Hosoda
“Ralph Breaks the Internet,” Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman
Will Win: Spider-Man
Could Win: Incredibles 2
Animated Short:
“Animal Behaviour,” Alison Snowden, David Fine
“Bao,” Domee Shi
“Late Afternoon,” Louise Bagnall
“One Small Step,” Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
“Weekends,” Trevor Jimenez
Will Win: Bao
Could Win: Weekends
Best Documentary Feature:
“Free Solo,” Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
“Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” RaMell Ross
“Minding the Gap,” Bing Liu
“Of Fathers and Sons,” Talal Derki
“RBG,” Betsy West, Julie Cohen
Will Win: Free Solo
Could Win: RBG
Should Win: Minding the Gap
While I don’t think it will win, Minding the Gap is AMAZING. Check it out if you haven’t.
Best Documentary Short Subject:
“Black Sheep,” Ed Perkins
“End Game,” Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman
“Lifeboat,” Skye Fitzgerald
“A Night at the Garden,” Marshall Curry
“Period. End of Sentence.,” Rayka Zehtabchi
Will Win: Period. End of Sentence
Could Win: Black Sheep
Best Live Action Short Film:
“Detainment,” Vincent Lambe
“Fauve,” Jeremy Comte
“Marguerite,” Marianne Farley
“Mother,” Rodrigo Sorogoyen
“Skin,” Guy Nattiv
Will Win: Marguerite
Could Win: Skin
Best Foreign Language Film:
“Capernaum” (Lebanon)
“Cold War” (Poland)
“Never Look Away” (Germany)
“Roma” (Mexico)
“Shoplifters” (Japan)
Will Win: Roma
Could Win: Cold War
Sound Editing:
“Black Panther,” Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Warhurst
“First Man,” Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
“A Quiet Place,” Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
“Roma,” Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay
Will Win: Black Panther
Could Win: A Quiet Place
Should Win: First Man
Sound Mixing:
“Black Panther”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“First Man”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”
Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Could Win: A Star is Born
Should Win: Roma
