Finalish Oscar Predictions

So here are my final Oscar predictions, although I reserve the right to change a few. I realized when coming up with these that there is one great thing about the acting nominations this year. While my preferred nominees aren't favored to win in 3 out of 4 (or possibly 4 out of 4 depending on who's doing the predicting) categories, I'm perfectly happy with those who are favored to win. So, at least in the acting categories, there's little chance of it being an embarrassing night for Oscar.

I'm writing who I think will win, who I think has the greatest chance to upset (although in some cases the chances are close to zilch), and my personal preference.

Picture
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: uhmmmm.... nothing. OK, I guess The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win: Milk

Actor
Will Win: Tough one, but I'm sticking with Sean Penn (Milk)
Alternate: Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Should Win: Penn

Actress
Will Win: Kate Winslet (The Reader)
Alternate: Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Should Win: Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married), BUT I will still be thrilled if Kate wins the Oscar. She deserves to be a winner three-times over.

Supporting Actor
Will Win: Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
Alternate: Josh Brolin (Milk)- but there's absolutely no way Ledger will lose.
Should Win: Brolin

Supporting Actress
Will Win: Penelope Cruz (Vicky Christina Barcelona)
Alternate: Viola Davis (Doubt)
Should Win: Davis

Director
Will Win: Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
Alternate: David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Should Win: Gus Van Sant (Milk)

Original Screenplay
Will Win: Milk
Alternate: WALL-E
Should Win: WALL-E

Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Reader
Should Win: The Reader

Animated
Will Win: WALL-E
Alternate: Kung Fu Panda (but.... really. no.)
Should Win: WALL-E

Cinematography
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Art Direction
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alternate: The Duchess
Should Win: The Dark Knight (have not seen the others)

Foreign Film
Will Win: The Class (going out on a limb)
Alternate: Waltz with Bashir
Should Win: The Class

Documentary
Will Win: Man on Wire
Alternate: Trouble the Water
Should Win: Man on Wire is the only one I've seen....

Costume Design
Will Win: The Duchess
Alternate: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win: Milk (go 70s era clothing)

Editing
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Dark Knight
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Score
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: WALL-E
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Song
Will Win: "Jai Ho", Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: "Down to Earth", WALL-E
Should Win: "Jai Ho," but where THE HELL is Bruce Springsteen's "The Wrestler"

Sound Mixing
Will Win: The Dark Knight
Alternate: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: WALL-E

Sound Editing
Will Win: The Dark Knight
Alternate: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: WALL-E

Visual Effects
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alternate: The Dark Knight
Should Win: The Dark Knight

Makeup
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alternate: The Dark Knight
Should Win: The Dark Knight

The categories where I have no real idea:

Animated Short
Will Win: Presto
Alternate: La Maison en Petits Cubes

Live Action
Will Win: Toyland
Alternate: The Pig

Documentary Short Subject
Will Win: The Witness
Alternate: The Conscience of Nhem Eh

Predicted Total Numbers

Slumdog Millionaire: 7
Milk: 2
Benjamin Button: 3
The Dark Knight: 2

I think everything else will be single wins.