Oscar Nominee Predictions

All right, here goes my best shots at the main Oscar categories..... I've divided each list into three categories: "Sure Things," "Looking Good," and "Questionable." Within each group, I've tried to put the movies in order of likelihood.

Picture

Sure Things
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Inglorious Basterds
Precious
Looking Good
An Education
Up
Questionable
A Serious Man
Invictus
District 9

Runners-Up
Crazy Heart
Star Trek
The Blind Side
Nine
The Messenger
The Hangover
Julie & Julia

This new 10-wide field is killing me. The Top 5 are a cinch this year. After that, things get murky. So many questions. Invictus has been losing steam, but I'm predicting there is just enough Eastwood love for it to get in. District 9 has been gaining strength, but is the Academy ready to nominate 2 (or even 3 with Star Trek) sci-fi films in a year? Also, could Nine still recover from its critical dismissal? Could Sandra Bullock possibly carry her bit hit The Blind Side to a nomination? We shall see on Oscar morning. I definitely think there is a surprise or two lurking in this category.

Actor

Sure Things
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air

Looking Good
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus

Runners-Up
Viggo Mortenson, The Road
Tobey Maguire, Brothers
Matt Damon, The Informant

This category seems the easiest to predict. If any of those five are not named, it will be a huge shocker.

Actress

Sure Things
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

Questionable
Helen Mirren, The Last Station

Runner-Up
Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria

Really there is no one outside of these six I can imagine making it. I almost put Blunt in for the fifth slot, but the Academy does seem to love Helen Mirren.

Supporting Actor

Sure Things
Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger

Questionable
Stanely Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Matt Damon, Invictus
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker

Runners-Up
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles
Stanley Tucci, Julie & Julia
Alec Baldwin, It's Complicated

This is definitely the hardest race to predict. Putting Anthony Mackie in the fifth slot could be wishful thinking on my part. Since The Hurt Locker has a ton of momentum, though, I think it's entirely possible he will get in. I would not be surprised to see any of these gentlemen on the list come Tuesday.

Supporting Actress

Sure Things
Mo'Nique, Precious
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air

Questionable
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Melanie Laurent, Inglorious Basterds

Runners-Up
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Diane Kruger, Inglorious Basterds
Samantha Morton, The Messenger
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Marion Cotillard, Nine

Another category where I can't decide. The top 3 are easy. After that is extremely tricky..... Julianne Moore often gets nominations, so I'm guessing she'll get in. My last choice is Melanie Laurent, probably the most risky of my predictions. While she has not had much support from early awards this season, and there is some category confusion on her role (Actress or Supporting Actress?), Inglorious Basterds has been doing well and she is a very memorable part of it. I'm thinking she just might pull it off. But once again, I could see any of these 10 on the list.

Director

Sure Things
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds

Looking Good
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Lee Daniels, Precious

Runners-Up
Neil Blomkamp, District 9
Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Lone Scherfig, An Education
Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon
Clint Eastwood, Invictus

I'm felling pretty confident about these five. The only one I can really see getting switched out is Lee Daniels.

Original Screenplay

Sure Things
Inglorious Basterds
The Hurt Locker

Looking Good
Up
A Serious Man
(500) Days of Summer

Runners-Up
The Hangover
Avatar
It's Complicated

This category also seems pretty set, but Original Screenplay has a history of putting in unexpected choices.

Adapted Screenplay

Sure Things
Up in the Air
Precious
An Education

Questionable
District 9
Crazy Heart

Runners-Up
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Julie & Julia
In the Loop
A Single Man
Invictus

Beyond the obvious top 3, this is a tough category to call. Will they go quirky indie (District 9, Mr. Fox, In the Loop), more traditional indie (Crazy Heart, A Single Man) or mainstream (Julie & Julia, Invictus)?

Overall Nominations

While I could bore you with Sound Effects Editing or Best Original Score, my expertise wears a little thin on the technical categories. I will make some guesses as to how many nominations I expect some of the top contenders to get:

Avatar: 10 (Picture, Director, Cinematography, Art Direction, Editing, Score, Song, Visual Effects, Sound Effects, Sound Effects Editing)

The Hurt Locker: 9 (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Sound, Sound Editing)

Inglorious Basterds: 9 (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costume Design, Editing)

Up in the Air: 7 (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing)

Precious: 6 (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing)

Tune in Tuesday to see how I did!