Nominations are coming on Tuesday morning (!), so here are my final picks. I'll try to list the nominees more or less in order of likelihood.
Picture
Sure Things
The Social Network
The King's Speech
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
Looking Good
True Grit
Toy Story 3
The Kids Are All Right
Questionable
The Town
Winter's Bone
Runners-Up
127 Hours
Another Year
The Ghost Writer
Shutter Island
Blue Valentine
The second-year of the 10-wide field makes the picks for the last 2 slots a little tricky. I'll frankly be shocked if anything other than the top 10 or 127 Hours makes it in, though. After my viewing of True Grit today, I've now seen ALL of the main contenders before the nominations, a nice feat for me.
Actor
Sure Things
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
James Franco, 127 Hours
Looking Good
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Questionable
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Runners-Up
Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
This category has seemed set for a while, but can Duvall still make it in? I'm betting yes, but I will be THRILLED if Gosling takes the fifth spot.
Actress
Sure Things
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Looking Good
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Questionable
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Runners-Up
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (If voters decide to take on the category fraud-she's being campaigned for Supporting)
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Hilary Swank, Conviction
Noomi Rapace, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Tilda Swinton, I Am Love
This category is chock full of contenders, and there is a wide open race for that fifth slot. I think we may see something interesting in this category.
Supporting Actor
Locks
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Looking Good
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Questionable
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Runners-Up
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Matt Damon, True Grit
Sam Rockwell, Conviction
Bill Murray, Get Low
I'm making my biggest leap here predicting that the Academy will follow the Screen Actors Guild lineup and pick Hawkes over Garfield. This may be wishful thinking because I would LOVE this lineup if it followed my predictions.
Supporting Actress
Sure Things
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Looking Good
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Questionable
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Runners-Up
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Lesley Manville, Another Year (If voters vote for her in Supporting instead of lead...)
Barbara Hershey, Black Swan
Dianne Weist, Rabbit Hole
Another interesting category that could have some shakeup depending on where Steinfeld ends up.
Director
Locks
David Fincher, The Social Network
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Looking Good
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Questionable
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Runners-Up
Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit
Debra Granik, Winter's Bone
Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
Mike Leigh, Another Year
I think there is a really horse race between the Coens and Russell for that fifth slot. I would be thrilled if Granik pulled off a nomination, but I don't think it will happen.
Original Screenplay
Locks
The King's Speech
The Kids Are All Right
Inception
Questionable
The Fighter
Black Swan
Runners Up
Another Year
Blue Valentine
The first three will definitely be nominated and will soon be duking it out for the win. After that, I'm guessing they'll likely go with the probable Best Picture nominees.
Adapted Screenplay
Locks
The Social Network
Winter's Bone
Toy Story 3
Probable
True Grit
Vulnerable
The Town
Runners Up
127 Hours
Ghost Writer
Rabbit Hole
Again the fifth slot looks like it could go a lot of ways.
I won't go into full predictions for all the categories, but I'll make some guesses on the number of nominees for some of the top contenders.
Inception: 10 (Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Art Direction, Editing, Visual Effects, Score, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing)
True Grit:10 (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Art Direction, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Makeup)
The King's Speech: 9 (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Director, Original Screenplay, Costume Design, Art Direction, Editing)
Black Swan: 8 (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Director, Original Screenplay, Editing, Costumes, Cinematography)
The Social Network: 8 (Picture, Actor, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Score, Cinematography, Editing)
The Fighter: 6 (Picture, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actress, Director, Original Screenplay)
If things end up this way, it will be very interesting. It's kind of an Academy tradition that the movie with the most nominations goes on to win Best Picture. The Social Network is the frontrunner right now, but it look as if 2 or 3 movies will likely beat it out in nominations.
Check back Tuesday to see how my predictions fared!
No comments:
Post a Comment