I think I did a decent job with my earlier predictions but I've made a few changes in terms of likelihood. Also, a few comment after each category.
Picture
The Social Network
The King's Speech
True Grit
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
Toy Story 3
The Town
Winter's Bone
Alternate: 127 Hours
Buzz has definitely coalesced around these 11 movies. Which one will they leave out? I'm thinking it's between The Town, Winter's Bone, and 127 Hours for the last 2 slots. There has been a lot of buzz about voters refusing to see 127 Hours because of the arm cutting scene, so I'm thinking it's the most likely candidate to be out. I'm really really hoping Winter's Bone makes it in.
Actor
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Alternate: Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine, Javier Bardem, Biutiful
It feels like this will be the five. Get Low has definitely lost buzz, but I think Duvall's legacy will carry him through in the end.
Actress
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Alternate: Lesley Manville, Another Year, Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right, Hilary Swank, Conviction
The top 3 are absolutely locked, Kidman is likely, and there's a tough fight for the last spot. Why do I have a weird feeling that Swank could sneak in?? Manville is being raved about by the critics in her Mike Leigh film, but if Sally Hawkins couldn't make it in an equally acclaimed performance in a weaker year for actresses, I think Manville might miss out.
Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Alternate: Andrew Garfield, The Social Network, Matt Damon, True Grit, Sam Rockwell, Conviction, Bill Murray, Get Low
I'm going out on a limb and saying the Winter's Bone fans might pull in the superb John Hawkes. I also think Garfield might miss out-it's not a super showy role and he's not that well known. You can already call it a win for Bale, barring a surprise upset by Rush. If this ends up being the lineup, this might be one of my favorite Supporting Actor categories ever. These performances were all truly great.
Supporting Actress
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Alternates: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom, Dianne Weist, Rabbit Hole
This really feels like the lineup to me. Weaver was very acclaimed, but did anyone see her small Australian movie? (I'm getting it when it hits Netflix)
Director
David Fincher, The Social Network
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit
Alternates: David O. Russell, The Fighter, Debra Granik, Winter's Bone, Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
This is an interesting category. I think the top 3 are fairly solid. After that I think any of the other folks could make
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