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Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Oscar Nominations!!

So the Oscar nominations are now out! I MAY have been 3 minutes late to pick up my third graders from the auditorium so I could finish watching the nomination announcements on my computer at school....... but sometimes you have to make sacrifices.

First a few thoughts before I run through the major categories.

-Overall, this is a really terrific lineup of actors. There is almost no "filler" from mediocre movies like we saw last year (The Last Station, The Lovely Bones, Nine, Invictus).

-My favorite category: Best Supporting Actor-LOVE this lineup. Followed closely by Best Actress.

-Least favorite category: Best Supporting Actress. Not bad at all. Just not as filled with greatness as the other acting categories.

-There's some great young talent out there. Natalie Portman, Jennifer Lawrence, Michelle Williams, James Franco, Jesse Eisenberg, Hailee Steinfeld are 32 or under.

-I'm so glad for the Winter's Bone love. Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor (John Hawkes in a bit of a surprise), and Adapted Screenplay. It's the only true indie in the Best Picture race, and it's damn good. See it if you haven't.
-Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom. A great performance in a small Australian movie. I'm glad the Academy recognized it.
-Exit Through the Gift Shop in Best Documentary. Unlike typical Academy tastes, but what a great movie. Check it out on Netflix watch now.
-Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine. Great choice for the coveted fifth slot.

-I didn't really think Ryan Gosling would get nominated for Best Actor for Blue Valentine, but there was an outside chance the Academy didn't take. His was probably my favorite performance of the year.
-No costume design nomination for Black Swan. Really??
-No Film Editing nomination for Inception. It certainly wasn't one of my favorite movies of the year, but its editing was superb.
-Despite the love for many aspects of 127 Hours, no Cinematography nomination for 127 Hours. Wasn't that kind of its greatest strength?

Best Picture

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

How I Did: 9/10. I thought they'd go for The Town rather than 127 Hours. Everyone figured either The Town, 127 Hours, or Winter's Bone would miss. I'm really glad Winter's Bone stuck it in. I liked The Town a smidgen more than 127 Hours, but either way I'm fine. As for the whole lineup-I've seen them all by nomination morning! I'm proud to say there's not a dud among these movies. In fact, I rated them all at least a B+, so I think it's a really strong lineup.

What Will Win: It looks like a tight, tight race between The King's Speech and The Social Network. The Social Network has the buzz, but The King's Speech did exceptionally well today. If I had to put money on it, I think I'd stick with The Social Network.


Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
James Franco, 127 Hours

How I Did: 4/5. I thought Robert Duvall (Get Low) would get in, but instead it was a surprise nod for Bardem in the foreign film Biutiful (also nominated for Foreign Language film). I've heard he's terrific. A good category, although I was REALLY hoping for a surprise nod for Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine, probably my favorite performance of the year.

Who Will Win: Colin Firth. Take it to the bank.


Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

How I Did: 5/5!! I predicted it. I haven't seen Rabbit Hole yet, but these other 4 performances are all completely Oscar worthy. What a terrific category.

Who Will Win: Portman, with a small chance Bening pulls off an upset. Black Swan didn't do as well as it could have today, so perhaps it's not entirely loved by the Academy.

Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

How I Did: 5/5! I correctly guessed Hawkes would pull off a surprise nomination over Andrew Garfield from The Social Network. I LOVE this category. In fact, I think this would be my exact lineup if I had a ballot. All 5 of these gentlemen gave amazing performances.

Who Will Win: Christian Bale, with a teeny tiny chance Geoffrey Rush could win.

Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

How I Did: 4/5. I thought they would go with Mila Kunis in Black Swan instead of Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom. I just saw Animal Kingdom last week, though, and I think they made the right choice. This is probably my least favorite of the acting categories. I loved Adams and Weaver. Bonham Carter was good in a limited role. Leo was interesting but over-the-top. Steinfeld was strong for a young actor, but not quite to the level of greatness for me.

Who Will Win: This is the only really interesting acting race. I think it's between Melissa Leo and Hailee Steinfeld, although I think Adams has a small chance as well.


Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David O. Russell, The Fighter

How I Did: 4/5. I, along with everyone else, though Christopher Nolan would be nominated for Inception. I predicted him instead of the Coens. This is the third time Nolan has had a Directors Guild nomination and then miss the Oscar race (after Memento and The Dark Knight).

Who Will Win: Fincher, I'm pretty sure. Even if The Social Network doesn't win Best Picture.

Original Screenplay

Another Year
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

How I Did: 4/5. I thought they would go for Black Swan over Mike Leigh's Another Year. I haven't seen Another Year yet, but I'm a big fan of Leigh and his work.

Who Will Win: The King's Speech, with an outside shot for The Kids Are All Right.

Adapted Screenplay

127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

How I Did: 4/5. I thought The Town would get in instead of 127 Hours, which did much better than I expected today. A nice lineup of scripts.

Who Will Win: The Social Network. For sure.

My Stats: Of the categories I predicted, I got 39/45 for a percentage of 87%. Not too shabby. This is EXACTLY the percentage I got last year. Maybe one year I'll up it to 90%.

If you'd like to see the whole list, go here

1 comment:

  1. So much fun, Ben, following your insights and talent for this thing! I checked the nominations today and noticed how damn close you got. Makes the "race" all the more interesting and I'm invested. Thanks for sharing and keeping the blog up!