Final Oscar Predictions: Part One

This has been quite an exciting Oscar year, and here are my final choices for  what will (and should) win.  I'm doing it a bit different this year, ranking each category in order of preference and then below writing what should win.  This is a particularly tough year to predict, and excitedly so, so don't put down too much money on my pics.

I'll do the below-the-line categories today and the big ones tomorrow!

Without further ado....


Cinematography
Life of Pi
Anna Karenina
Lincoln
Skyfall
Django Unchained

Will Win: Life of Pi
Runner-Up: Skyfall

A really beautiful bunch of nominees, and each nominee has indelible images I remember fondly.  In the end, I think there is no denying the gorgeous vistas, and stunning use of 3D, in Life of Pi.  It will probably win too, although there’s a small chance they could finally award Roger Deakins for his work on Skyfall.

Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Lincoln
Les Miserables

Haven’t Seen
Snow White and the Huntsman
Mirror Mirror

Will Win: Anna Karenina
Runner-Up: Les Miserables

No contest here.  Every costume in Anna Karenina is gorgeous and has a major part in portraying the emotions of the story.  I’m almost sure it will win, too.

Art Direction
Lincoln
Anna Karenina
Life of Pi
Les Miserables

Haven’t Seen
The Hobbit

Will Win: Anna Karenina
Runner-Up: Les Miserables

All of these movies had really strong art direction, but in different ways.  Lincoln’s is understated and serves the movie well.  Anna Karenina’s sets are a huge part of the story.  Life of Pi is beautiful, and tied to the special effects.  Les Miserables is well put-together, but also a tad artificial feeling.  This really feels like a category where anything except The Hobbit could win.  I’m ultimately picking Anna Karenina, because it’s beautiful period decor is the type of thing that usually wins.

Editing
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln

Will Win: Argo
Runner-Up: Zero Dark Thirty

All of these are really well-edited movies.  I’m especially glad they included Silver Linings, since editing is so important to a well-paced comedy.  Argo gets my vote, and will most likely win, because the tight editing keeps the audience glued to their seats for the entire movie.

Makeup
Les Miserables

Haven’t Seen
Hitchcock
The Hobbit

Will Win: Les Miserables
Runner-Up: Hitchcock

The Academy typically likes real people movies, which is why it’s really surprising Lincoln was left off.  That bodes well for Hitchcock, but I think the Academy may reward Les Miserables here, for the way it showed the poverty of its characters through the bad teeth and skin.

Score
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Anna Karenina
Skyfall
Argo

Will Win: Life of Pi
Runner-Up: Argo

When I think back to what I remember from the scores, Life of Pi , Lincoln, and Anna Karenina definitely stand out.  While Argo is scored by the great Alexandre Desplat, I don’t think it’s one of his best.  I think Pi will and should win, although the very famous John Williams also has a shot for his Lincoln score.

Original Song
“Skyfall” from Skyfall
“Pi’s Lullaby” from Life of Pi
“Before My Time” from Chasing Ice
“Everybody Needs a Best Friend” from Ted
“Suddenly” from Les Mis

Will Win: Skyfall
Runner-Up: Les Miserables

No one can touch Adele’s great Bond song this year, although I was actually pleasantly surprised by Scarlett Johannson’s (!) track from Chasing Ice.  That new Les Miserables number was an obvious ploy for an extra nomination, and really pretty terrible.

Sound Editing
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo

Will Win: Skyfall
Runner Up: Life of Pi

Probably the toughest pick of the night, as this could literally go to any of these movies.  If Argo wins Best Picture, it will need some awards to go with the big one.  This is one place where it could triumph, although I’m ultimately picking Skyfall because I think they’ll want to give such a well-regarded megahit something in these technical categories.

Sound Mixing
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Les Miserables
Argo
Lincoln

Will Win: Les Miserables
Runner Up: Skyfall

These sound categories are the categories where I feel the least knowledgeable.  I know musicals tend to win here, so I’m predicting Les Mis, especially because of all the press about the live singing.

Visual Effects
Life of Pi
Prometheus
The Avengers

Haven’t Seen
The Hobbit
Snow White and the Huntsman

Will Win: Life of Pi
Runner-Up: The Avengers

One of the surest things (and deservedly so), is Life of Pi for the shipwreck and the amazing animals, particularly Richard Parker the tiger.

Live Action Short

Haven’t Seen Any
Asad
Buzhazi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Henry

Will Win: Curfew (I’ve heard it’s the best)
Runner-Up: Asad

Animated Film
Frankenweenie
Paranorman
Brave

Haven’t Seen
Wreck-It Ralph
The Pirates!: Band of Misfits

Will Win: Brave
Runner-Up: Wreck-It Ralph

Of the 3 I’ve seen, I much prefer the horror-tinged Frankenweenie and Paranorman to the traditional fairy tale with a twist Brave, but I think the Pixar brand may ultimately guide Brave to a win.  If not, it will probably be the popular Wreck-It Ralph.

Animated Short
Adam and Dog
Paperman
Fresh Guacamole
Head Over Heels

Haven’t Seen
Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare”

Will Win: Paperman
Runner-Up: Adam and Dog

These are almost all available online, and worth a look!  Adam and Dog is a particularly beautiful look at the Genesis story from a canine point of view, while Paperman is charming and played before Wreck-It Ralph.  I’m betting lots of people saw it, so it will probably win.
Documentary
Searching for Sugar Man
The Invisible War
How to Survive a Plague
Five Broken Cameras

Haven't SeenThe Gatekeepers

Will Win: Searching for Sugar Man
Runner-Up: The Gatekeepers

I haven’t seen The Gatekeepers yet, but the other 4 make a strong lineup.  While Searching for Sugar Man doesn’t have the political import of the other nominees, it’s an incredibly fascinating and moving story of fate and renaissance.  That’s why it should (and almost certainly will) win.

Documentary Short

Haven’t Seen
Inocente
Kings’ Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption

Will Win: Inocente
Runner-Up: Mondays at Racine

I haven’t seen any of these, but I’ve heard it’s between Inocente, about a homeless immigrant teen and her amazing artwork, and Mondays at Racine, about a beauty salon for women undergoing chemotherapy.