Some tough calls again. And tune in tomorrow for the epic "ranking the 10" blog!
Best Picture (Alphabetical)Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Will Win: Argo
Runner-Up: Silver Linings Playbook
I’ll save my personal picks for my final post tomorrow! As for what will win...what a race it has been. When Affleck was snubbed, many thought Argo was out and Lincoln would run away with it. Now Argo has won everything under the sun and it would be a shock it if didn’t win. I actually think Silver Linings Playbook is in a distant second, and not Lincoln.
Actor
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Denzel Washington, Flight
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Runner-Up: Bradley Cooper
A pretty terrific group of nominees this year. Even my least favorite, Hugh Jackman, gives a pretty solid performance, and the other four are all truly great in their roles. For my favorite, it was really tough, but I ultimately picked Phoneix over Day-Lewis. Joaquin is so tortured, strange, and hypnotic in his performance, I couldn’t deny him teh award. I’ll still be cheering loudly when Day-Lewis wins and becomes the only actor to win 3 lead Oscars!
Actress
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Quevenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Wil Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Runner-Up: Emmanuelle Riva
While I adore Jennifer Lawrence and think she has incredible charisma, I’m hoping and praying that Emmanuelle secures the Oscar for her masterly performance and comes on stage for her 86th birthday. As for the other 3, Chastain and Watts are good, but not the best I’ve ever seen them. As for Wallis, I think its a great child performance, but I have to give much of the credit of such a young performance to the director.
Supporting Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Robert de Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Alan Arkin, Argo
Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones
Runner Up: Robert de Niro
This is a category where I can actually make a case for any of the 5 winning, although Hoffman or Arkin would be pretty big surprises. Hoffman wins my vote as the other half of the masterly duo in The Master, while Tommy Lee Jones is a close second as he beautifully steals every scene he is in as Thaddeus Stevens in Lincoln.
Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Will Win: Anne Hathaway
Runner Up: Sally Field
Anne Hathaway has this all sewn up, and I almost picked her for her performance which is truly the highlight of the flawed film. In the end, I made my picks a Master trio and chose Amy Adams, who does a whole lot with a fairly small role in the background, playing the creepy supportive wife to a tee.
Director
Michael Haneke, Amour
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Benh Zeitlan, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Will Win: Steven Spielberg
Runner-Up: Ang Lee
With no Ben Affleck in the running, and Argo our presumptive Best Picture winner, this is a strange and fascinating race. In many ways Spielberg is the obvious choice, and may well win, but I don’t think we can completely count out Lee, Russell, or even Haneke. While I loved Lincoln and Amour about equally well, I would ultimately vote for Hanke for his supreme command over his film. There is not a wasted moment or misstep in Amour, and it’s so rare to get the chance to honor a European great.
Adapted Screenplay
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Argo
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Will Win: Argo
Runner-Up: Silver Linings Playbook
A tense 3-way race between Argo, Silver Linings Playbook, and Lincoln. Lincoln’s screenplay is so erudite, gripping, and beautiful, I can’t even believe this is even a contest. Nevertheless, I’m not betting my money on my favorites this year... so either Argo or Silver Linings, two very good screenplays as well, will probably take it.
Original Screenplay
Amour
Moonrise Kingdom
Django Unchained
Zero Dark Thirty
Flight
Will Win: Django Unchained
Runner-Up: Amour
Often a favorite category of mine, this is 3 really strong screenplays, 1 strong script that (I think) could have been even better (ZDT), and 1 that is fine but has no business being here (Flight). I’d love to see Amour take this, but I think the Academy will throw Quentin something and reward him for his very entertaining Django script.
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