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Friday, February 22, 2013

Final Oscar Predictions: Part Two!

And here are the big categories.  Apart from Best Picture, I'm listing all the nominees in my order of preference.

Some tough calls again.  And tune in tomorrow for the epic "ranking the 10" blog!

Best Picture (Alphabetical)
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Will Win: Argo
Runner-Up: Silver Linings Playbook

I’ll save my personal picks for my final post tomorrow!  As for what will win...what a race it has been.  When Affleck was snubbed, many thought Argo was out and Lincoln would run away with it.  Now Argo has won everything under the sun and it would be a shock it if didn’t win.  I actually think Silver Linings Playbook is in a distant second, and not Lincoln.  

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Denzel Washington, Flight
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Runner-Up: Bradley Cooper

A pretty terrific group of nominees this year.  Even my least favorite, Hugh Jackman, gives a pretty solid performance, and the other four are all truly great in their roles.  For my favorite, it was really tough, but I ultimately picked Phoneix over Day-Lewis. Joaquin is so tortured, strange, and hypnotic in his performance, I couldn’t deny him teh award. I’ll still be cheering loudly when Day-Lewis wins and becomes the only actor to win 3 lead Oscars!

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Quevenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Wil Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Runner-Up: Emmanuelle Riva

While I adore Jennifer Lawrence and think she has incredible charisma, I’m hoping and praying that Emmanuelle secures the Oscar for her masterly performance and comes on stage for her 86th birthday.  As for the other 3, Chastain and Watts are good, but not the best I’ve ever seen them.  As for Wallis, I think its a great child performance, but I have to give much of the credit of such a young performance to the director.

Supporting Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Robert de Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Alan Arkin, Argo

Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones
Runner Up: Robert de Niro

This is a category where I can actually make a case for any of the 5 winning, although Hoffman or Arkin would be pretty big surprises.  Hoffman wins my vote as the other half of the masterly duo in The Master, while Tommy Lee Jones is a close second as he beautifully steals every scene he is in as Thaddeus Stevens in Lincoln.

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Will Win: Anne Hathaway
Runner Up: Sally Field

Anne Hathaway has this all sewn up, and I almost picked her for her performance which is truly the highlight of the flawed film.  In the end, I made my picks a  Master trio and chose Amy Adams, who does a whole lot with a fairly small role in the background, playing the creepy supportive wife to a tee.  

Michael Haneke, Amour
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Benh Zeitlan, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Will Win: Steven Spielberg
Runner-Up: Ang Lee

With no Ben Affleck in the running, and Argo our presumptive Best Picture winner, this is a strange and fascinating race.  In many ways Spielberg is the obvious choice, and may well win, but I don’t think we can completely count out Lee, Russell, or even Haneke.  While I loved Lincoln and Amour about equally well, I would ultimately vote for Hanke for his supreme command over his film.  There is not a wasted moment or misstep in Amour, and it’s so rare to get the chance to honor a European great.  

Adapted Screenplay
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild

Will Win: Argo
Runner-Up: Silver Linings Playbook

A tense 3-way race between Argo, Silver Linings Playbook, and Lincoln.  Lincoln’s screenplay is so erudite, gripping, and beautiful, I can’t even believe this is even a contest.  Nevertheless, I’m not betting my money on my favorites this year... so either Argo or Silver Linings, two very good screenplays as well,  will probably take it.

Original Screenplay
Moonrise Kingdom
Django Unchained
Zero Dark Thirty

Will Win: Django Unchained
Runner-Up: Amour

Often a favorite category of mine, this is 3 really strong screenplays, 1 strong script that (I think) could have been even better (ZDT), and 1 that is fine but has no business being here (Flight).  I’d love to see Amour take this, but I think the Academy will throw Quentin something and reward him for his very entertaining Django script.

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