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Friday, February 26, 2016

Final Oscar Predictions

Here goes nothing.... my final predictions. There are some clear calls this year and a few though ones.  I'm disappointed to say my least favorite film (The Revenant) looks set to win the most awards (6) with Mad Max: Fury Road runner-up with 4.  I don't think any other movie is set to win more than 1.

Below are my Will Win, Could Win, Should Win, and Should Have Been Here (where applicable).

Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: The Big Short
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Here: Ex Machina

This might be the first year since 1995 (Braveheart) where my least favorite nominee is the winner. If The Big Short, Spotlight, or (in a dream world) Mad Max gets called, I'll yelp for joy.

Best Actress
Cate BlanchettCarol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Will Win: Brie Larson
Could Win: Saoirse Ronan (But nope)
Should win:  Saoirse Ronan
Should Have Been Here: Emily Blunt (Sicario)

I haven't seen Joy, but the rest of this lineup is simply amazing, one of the best year's ever. I really loved Brie Larson's performance in Room, and am happy for her likely win, but my heart goes to Saoirse Ronan.

Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprioThe Revenant
Michael FassbenderSteve Jobs
Eddie RedmayneThe Danish Girl

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Could Win: Matt Damon (But nope)
Should Win: Michael Fassbender
Should Have Been Here: Michael B. Jordan (Creed)!!!

This is probably the most locked and loaded award for the night. I think Leonardo is a really good actor, and he's good in The Revenant in a physically exhausting role.  But it didn't impress me as much as roles that called for him to use his personality like The Departed, The Aviator, or  The Wolf of Wall Street.  Better than all of these nominees was Michael B. Jordan, who gave a deep, intense, movie star performance in Creed.

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia VikanderThe Danish Girl
Kate WinsletSteve Jobs

Will Win: Alicia Vikander
Could Win: Kate Winslet
Should Win: Rooney Mara
Should Have Been Here: Kristen Stewart (Clouds of Sils Maria)

I haven't seen The Danish Girl, but Vikander seems the likely choice here, mostly to reward her for this as well as her great role in Ex Machina. If there is a spoiler, it will be Kate Winslet. 

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark RuffaloSpotlight
Mark RylanceBridge of Spies
Sylvester StalloneCreed

Will Win: Sylvester Stallone
Could Win: Christian Bale
Should Win: Mark Rylance
Should Have Been Here: Oscar Isaac (Ex Machina)

There could also be a surprise in Supporting Actor, as I could honestly see any of these gentleman pulling through.  In the end, though, the Oscars will probably embrace the nostalgia and give it to Rocky for 39 years after he first played the role.

Best Director
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Lenny AbrahamsonRoom
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Will Win: Alejandro G. Inarritu
Could Win: George Miller
Should Win: George Miller
Should Have Been Here: Alex Garland (Ex Machina)

It looks like it will be two years in a row for Inarritu, unless Miller pulls an exciting upset.

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short, screenplay by Charles Randolph and Adam McKay
Brooklyn, screenplay by Nick Hornby
Carol, screenplay by Phyllis Nagy
The Martian, screenplay by Drew Goddard
Room, screenplay by Emma Donoghue

Will Win: The Big Short

Could Win: Room
Should Win: The Big Short
Should Have Been Here: Steve Jobs

Making the financial crisis fun and understandable? The Big Short feels like an easy win here, and a well deserved one in a great category this year.  Honestly all 5 of these scripts are impressive. 

Best Original Screenplay

Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Straight Outta Compton

Will Win: Spotlight
Could Win: Inside Out
Should Win: Inside Out
Should Have Been Here: Sicario

Spotlight has this one in the bag. I'm predicting it's the only Spotlight award for the night.

Animated Feature
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

Will Win: Inside Out
Could Win: Anomalisa (But no chance)
Should Win: Inside Out

CarolEd Lachman
The Hateful EightRobert Richardson
Mad Max: Fury RoadJohn Seale
The RevenantEmmanuel Lubezki
Sicario, Roger Deakins

Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Sicario
Should Have Been Here: Creed

Lubezki will make history here, winning for the 3rd year in a row (after Gravity and Birdman). 

Costume Design
CarolSandy Powell
CinderellaSandy Powell
The Danish GirlPaco Delgado
Mad Max: Fury RoadJenny Beavan
The RevenantJacqueline West

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: Cinderella
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Here: Brooklyn

Call it a 3-way tossup between Carol, Cinderella, and Mad Max, with solid chances by the other 2 as well.In my hardest call, I'll go with Mad Max for those crazy costumes, above the poofy dresses of Cinderella.

Film Editing
The Big ShortHank Corwin
Mad Max: Fury RoadMargaret Sixel
The RevenantStephen Mirrione
SpotlightTom McArdle
Star Wars: The Force AwakensMaryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Big Short
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Here: Creed

Mad Max vs. The Big Short.  Both impressive editing jobs in different sorts of editing. 

Production Design
Bridge of Spies
Production design: Adam Stockhausen; set decoration: Rena DeAngeloand Bernhard Henrich
The Danish Girl
Production design: Eve Stewart; set decoration: Michael Standish
Mad Max: Fury Road
Production design: Colin Gibson; set decoration: Lisa Thompson
The Martian
Production design: Arthur Max; set decoration: Celia Bobak
The Revenant
Production design: Jack Fisk; set decoration: Hamish Purdy
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Here: Ex Machina
This should be a well-deserved win for Mad Max.

Music-Original Score
Bridge of Spies, Thomas Newman
Carol, Carter Burwell
The Hateful Eight, Ennio Morricone
Sicario, Johann Johannsson
Star Wars: The Force Awakens, John Williams

Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Could Win: Carol
Should Win: Carol
Should Have Been Here: Inside Out

The great Ennio Morricone will probably win, although I personally love Carter Burwell as a composer and in particular his beautiful Carol score.

Music-Original Song
“Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey
Music and lyrics by Abel Tesfaye, Ahmad Balshe, Jason DahealaQuenneville and Stephan Moccio
“Manta Ray” from Racing Extinction
Music by J. Ralph and lyrics by Antony Hegarty
“Simple Song #3” from Youth
Music and lyrics by David Lang
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground
Music and lyric by Diane Warren and Lady Gaga
“Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre
Music and lyrics by Jimmy Napes and Sam Smith
Will Win: Til It Happens to You
Could Win: Earned It
Should Win: Manta Ray

Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury RoadMark Mangini and David White
The MartianOliver Tarney
The RevenantMartin Hernandez and Lon Bender
Sicario, Alan Robert Murray
Star Wars: The Force AwakensMatthew Wood and David Acord

Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Here: Ex Machina
I'm going Revenant for both of these races.

Sound Mixing
Bridge of Spies, Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Drew Kunin
Mad Max: Fury Road, Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff and Ben Osmo
The Martian, Paul Massey, Mark Taylor and Mac Ruth
The Revenant, Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano, Randy Thom and ChrisDuesterdiek
Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio and Stuart Wilson
Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Here: Straight Outta Compton

Both of these sound categories are tough, as they seem like races between The Revenant, Mad Max, and Star Wars. 

 Visual Effects
Ex MachinaAndrew Whitehurst, Paul Norris, Mark Ardington and Sara Bennett
Mad Max: Fury RoadAndrew Jackson, Tom Wood, Dan Oliver and Andy Williams
The MartianRichard Stammers, Anders Langlands, Chris Lawrence and Steven Warner
The RevenantRich McBride, Matthew Shumway, Jason Smith and Cameron Waldbauer
Star Wars: The Force AwakensRoger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlanand Chris Corbould

Will Win: Star Wars
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

I think they'll want to give Star Wars something, but The Revenant or Mad Max could pull it off too.

Best Documentary
Producers: Asif Kapadia and James Gay-Rees
Cartel Land
Producers: Matthew Heineman and Tom Yellin
The Look of Silence
Producers: Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Producers: Liz Garbus, Amy Hobby and Justin Wilkes
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
Producers: Evgeny Afineevsky and Den Tolmor

Will Win: Amy
Could Win: What Happened, Miss Simone?
Should Win: What Happened, Miss Simone?

Documentary Short
Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude LanzmannSpectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom
Will Win: A Girl in the River
Could Win: Body Team 12

Another super tough call.

Live Action Short
Ave Maria, Basil Khalil and Eric Dupont
Day One, Henry Hughes
Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut), Patrick Vollrath
Shok, Jamie Donoughue
Stutterer, Benjamin Cleary and Serena Armitage

Will Win: Shok
Could Win: Stutterer

Animated Short
Bear Story
Producers: Gabriel Osorio and Pato Escala
Producers: Richard Williams and Imogen Sutton
Sanjay's Super Team
Producers: Sanjay Patel and Nicole Grindle
We Can't Live Without Cosmos
Producer: Konstantin Bronzit
World of Tomorrow
Producer: Don Hertzfeldt

Will Win: World of Tomorrow
Could Win: Sanjay's Super Team
Should Win: World of Tomorrow

Everyone check out your Netflix and watch World of Tomorrow. It's great and I really hope it wins!

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