Here goes nothing.... my final predictions. There are some clear calls this year and a few though ones. I'm disappointed to say my least favorite film (The Revenant) looks set to win the most awards (6) with Mad Max: Fury Road runner-up with 4. I don't think any other movie is set to win more than 1.
Below are my Will Win, Could Win, Should Win, and Should Have Been Here (where applicable).
Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: The Big Short
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Here: Ex Machina
This might be the first year since 1995 (Braveheart) where my least favorite nominee is the winner. If The Big Short, Spotlight, or (in a dream world) Mad Max gets called, I'll yelp for joy.
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Will Win: Brie Larson
Could Win: Saoirse Ronan (But nope)
Should win: Saoirse Ronan
Should Have Been Here: Emily Blunt (Sicario)
I haven't seen Joy, but the rest of this lineup is simply amazing, one of the best year's ever. I really loved Brie Larson's performance in Room, and am happy for her likely win, but my heart goes to Saoirse Ronan.
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo , The Revenant
Michael , Steve Jobs
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Could Win: Matt Damon (But nope)
Should Win: Michael Fassbender
Should Have Been Here: Michael B. Jordan (Creed)!!!
This is probably the most locked and loaded award for the night. I think Leonardo is a really good actor, and he's good in The Revenant in a physically exhausting role. But it didn't impress me as much as roles that called for him to use his personality like The Departed, The Aviator, or The Wolf of Wall Street. Better than all of these nominees was Michael B. Jordan, who gave a deep, intense, movie star performance in Creed.
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia . The Danish Girl
Kate , Steve Jobs
Will Win: Alicia Vikander
Could Win: Kate Winslet
Should Win: Rooney Mara
Should Have Been Here: Kristen Stewart (Clouds of Sils Maria)
I haven't seen The Danish Girl, but Vikander seems the likely choice here, mostly to reward her for this as well as her great role in Ex Machina. If there is a spoiler, it will be Kate Winslet.
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark , Spotlight
Mark , Bridge of Spies
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone
Could Win: Christian Bale
Should Win: Mark Rylance
Should Have Been Here: Oscar Isaac (Ex Machina)
There could also be a surprise in Supporting Actor, as I could honestly see any of these gentleman pulling through. In the end, though, the Oscars will probably embrace the nostalgia and give it to Rocky for 39 years after he first played the role.
Alejandro G. ,
Will Win: Alejandro G. Inarritu
Could Win: George Miller
Should Win: George Miller
Should Have Been Here: Alex Garland (Ex Machina)
It looks like it will be two years in a row for Inarritu, unless Miller pulls an exciting upset.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Could Win: Room
Should Win: The Big Short
Should Have Been Here: Steve Jobs
Making the financial crisis fun and understandable? The Big Short feels like an easy win here, and a well deserved one in a great category this year. Honestly all 5 of these scripts are impressive.
Best Original Screenplay