So here are my final Oscar predictions, although I reserve the right to change a few. I realized when coming up with these that there is one great thing about the acting nominations this year. While my preferred nominees aren't favored to win in 3 out of 4 (or possibly 4 out of 4 depending on who's doing the predicting) categories, I'm perfectly happy with those who are favored to win. So, at least in the acting categories, there's little chance of it being an embarrassing night for Oscar.
I'm writing who I think will win, who I think has the greatest chance to upset (although in some cases the chances are close to zilch), and my personal preference.
PictureWill Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: uhmmmm.... nothing. OK, I guess The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win: Milk
ActorWill Win: Tough one, but I'm sticking with Sean Penn (Milk)
Alternate: Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Should Win: Penn
ActressWill Win: Kate Winslet (The Reader)
Alternate: Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Should Win: Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married), BUT I will still be thrilled if Kate wins the Oscar. She deserves to be a winner three-times over.
Supporting ActorWill Win: Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
Alternate: Josh Brolin (Milk)- but there's absolutely no way Ledger will lose.
Should Win: Brolin
Supporting ActressWill Win: Penelope Cruz (Vicky Christina Barcelona)
Alternate: Viola Davis (Doubt)
Should Win: Davis
DirectorWill Win: Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
Alternate: David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Should Win: Gus Van Sant (Milk)
Original ScreenplayWill Win: Milk
Alternate: WALL-E
Should Win: WALL-E
Adapted ScreenplayWill Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Reader
Should Win: The Reader
AnimatedWill Win: WALL-E
Alternate: Kung Fu Panda (but.... really. no.)
Should Win: WALL-E
CinematographyWill Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Art DirectionWill Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alternate: The Duchess
Should Win: The Dark Knight (have not seen the others)
Foreign FilmWill Win: The Class (going out on a limb)
Alternate: Waltz with Bashir
Should Win: The Class
DocumentaryWill Win: Man on Wire
Alternate: Trouble the Water
Should Win: Man on Wire is the only one I've seen....
Costume DesignWill Win: The Duchess
Alternate: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Should Win: Milk (go 70s era clothing)
EditingWill Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Dark Knight
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
ScoreWill Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: WALL-E
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
SongWill Win: "Jai Ho", Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: "Down to Earth", WALL-E
Should Win: "Jai Ho," but where THE HELL is Bruce Springsteen's "The Wrestler"
Sound MixingWill Win: The Dark Knight
Alternate: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: WALL-E
Sound EditingWill Win: The Dark Knight
Alternate: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: WALL-E
Visual EffectsWill Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alternate: The Dark Knight
Should Win: The Dark Knight
MakeupWill Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alternate: The Dark Knight
Should Win: The Dark Knight
The categories where I have no real idea:
Animated ShortWill Win: Presto
Alternate: La Maison en Petits Cubes
Live ActionWill Win: Toyland
Alternate: The Pig
Documentary Short SubjectWill Win: The Witness
Alternate: The Conscience of Nhem Eh
Predicted Total Numbers
Slumdog Millionaire: 7
Milk: 2
Benjamin Button: 3
The Dark Knight: 2
I think everything else will be single wins.