Final Oscar Predictions

Here goes nothing.... my final predictions. There are some clear calls this year and a few though ones.  I'm disappointed to say my least favorite film (The Revenant) looks set to win the most awards (6) with Mad Max: Fury Road runner-up with 4.  I don't think any other movie is set to win more than 1.

Below are my Will Win, Could Win, Should Win, and Should Have Been Here (where applicable).


Best Picture

The Big Short

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: The Big Short
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Here: Ex Machina

This might be the first year since 1995 (Braveheart) where my least favorite nominee is the winner. If The Big Short, Spotlight, or (in a dream world) Mad Max gets called, I'll yelp for joy.

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Will Win: Brie Larson
Could Win: Saoirse Ronan (But nope)
Should win:  Saoirse Ronan
Should Have Been Here: Emily Blunt (Sicario)

I haven't seen Joy, but the rest of this lineup is simply amazing, one of the best year's ever. I really loved Brie Larson's performance in Room, and am happy for her likely win, but my heart goes to Saoirse Ronan.

Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Could Win: Matt Damon (But nope)
Should Win: Michael Fassbender
Should Have Been Here: Michael B. Jordan (Creed)!!!

This is probably the most locked and loaded award for the night. I think Leonardo is a really good actor, and he's good in The Revenant in a physically exhausting role.  But it didn't impress me as much as roles that called for him to use his personality like The Departed, The Aviator, or  The Wolf of Wall Street.  Better than all of these nominees was Michael B. Jordan, who gave a deep, intense, movie star performance in Creed.

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander. The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Will Win: Alicia Vikander
Could Win: Kate Winslet
Should Win: Rooney Mara
Should Have Been Here: Kristen Stewart (Clouds of Sils Maria)

I haven't seen The Danish Girl, but Vikander seems the likely choice here, mostly to reward her for this as well as her great role in Ex Machina. If there is a spoiler, it will be Kate Winslet. 

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Will Win: Sylvester Stallone
Could Win: Christian Bale
Should Win: Mark Rylance
Should Have Been Here: Oscar Isaac (Ex Machina)

There could also be a surprise in Supporting Actor, as I could honestly see any of these gentleman pulling through.  In the end, though, the Oscars will probably embrace the nostalgia and give it to Rocky for 39 years after he first played the role.

Best Director
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Will Win: Alejandro G. Inarritu
Could Win: George Miller
Should Win: George Miller
Should Have Been Here: Alex Garland (Ex Machina)

It looks like it will be two years in a row for Inarritu, unless Miller pulls an exciting upset.

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short, screenplay by Charles Randolph and Adam McKay
Brooklyn, screenplay by Nick Hornby
Carol, screenplay by Phyllis Nagy
The Martian, screenplay by Drew Goddard
Room, screenplay by Emma Donoghue

Will Win: The Big Short
Could Win: Room
Should Win: The Big Short
Should Have Been Here: Steve Jobs

Making the financial crisis fun and understandable? The Big Short feels like an easy win here, and a well deserved one in a great category this year.  Honestly all 5 of these scripts are impressive. 

Best Original Screenplay

Bridge of Spies

Ex Machina

Inside Out

Spotlight

Straight Outta Compton

Will Win: Spotlight

Could Win: Inside Out

Should Win: Inside Out

Should Have Been Here: Sicario

Spotlight has this one in the bag. I'm predicting it's the only Spotlight award for the night.

Animated Feature

Anomalisa

Boy and the World

Inside Out

Shaun the Sheep Movie

When Marnie Was There

Will Win: Inside Out

Could Win: Anomalisa (But no chance)

Should Win: Inside Out

Cinematography
Carol, Ed Lachman
The Hateful Eight, Robert Richardson
Mad Max: Fury Road, John Seale
The Revenant, Emmanuel Lubezki
Sicario, Roger Deakins

Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Sicario
Should Have Been Here: Creed

Lubezki will make history here, winning for the 3rd year in a row (after Gravity and Birdman). 

Costume Design
Carol, Sandy Powell
Cinderella, Sandy Powell
The Danish Girl, Paco Delgado
Mad Max: Fury Road, Jenny Beavan
The Revenant, Jacqueline West

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: Cinderella
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Here: Brooklyn

Call it a 3-way tossup between Carol, Cinderella, and Mad Max, with solid chances by the other 2 as well.In my hardest call, I'll go with Mad Max for those crazy costumes, above the poofy dresses of Cinderella.

Film Editing
The Big Short, Hank Corwin
Mad Max: Fury Road, Margaret Sixel
The Revenant, Stephen Mirrione
Spotlight, Tom McArdle
Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Big Short
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Here: Creed

Mad Max vs. The Big Short.  Both impressive editing jobs in different sorts of editing. 

Production Design

Bridge of Spies
Production design: Adam Stockhausen; set decoration: Rena DeAngeloand Bernhard Henrich

The Danish Girl
Production design: Eve Stewart; set decoration: Michael Standish

Mad Max: Fury Road
Production design: Colin Gibson; set decoration: Lisa Thompson

The Martian
Production design: Arthur Max; set decoration: Celia Bobak

The Revenant
Production design: Jack Fisk; set decoration: Hamish Purdy

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could Win: The Revenant

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Should Have Been Here: Ex Machina

This should be a well-deserved win for Mad Max.

Music-Original Score
Bridge of Spies, Thomas Newman
Carol, Carter Burwell
The Hateful Eight, Ennio Morricone
Sicario, Johann Johannsson
Star Wars: The Force Awakens, John Williams

Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Could Win: Carol
Should Win: Carol
Should Have Been Here: Inside Out

The great Ennio Morricone will probably win, although I personally love Carter Burwell as a composer and in particular his beautiful Carol score.

Music-Original Song

“Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey
Music and lyrics by Abel Tesfaye, Ahmad Balshe, Jason DahealaQuenneville and Stephan Moccio

“Manta Ray” from Racing Extinction
Music by J. Ralph and lyrics by Antony Hegarty

“Simple Song #3” from Youth
Music and lyrics by David Lang

“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground
Music and lyric by Diane Warren and Lady Gaga

“Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre
Music and lyrics by Jimmy Napes and Sam Smith

Will Win: Til It Happens to You

Could Win: Earned It

Should Win: Manta Ray

Sound Editing

Mad Max: Fury Road, Mark Mangini and David White
The Martian, Oliver Tarney
The Revenant, Martin Hernandez and Lon Bender
Sicario, Alan Robert Murray
Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Matthew Wood and David Acord

Will Win: The Revenant

Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Should Have Been Here: Ex Machina

I'm going Revenant for both of these races.

Sound Mixing

Bridge of Spies, Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Drew Kunin
Mad Max: Fury Road, Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff and Ben Osmo
The Martian, Paul Massey, Mark Taylor and Mac Ruth
The Revenant, Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano, Randy Thom and ChrisDuesterdiek
Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio and Stuart Wilson

Will Win: The Revenant

Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Should Have Been Here: Straight Outta Compton

Both of these sound categories are tough, as they seem like races between The Revenant, Mad Max, and Star Wars. 

 Visual Effects

Ex Machina, Andrew Whitehurst, Paul Norris, Mark Ardington and Sara Bennett
Mad Max: Fury Road, Andrew Jackson, Tom Wood, Dan Oliver and Andy Williams
The Martian, Richard Stammers, Anders Langlands, Chris Lawrence and Steven Warner
The Revenant, Rich McBride, Matthew Shumway, Jason Smith and Cameron Waldbauer
Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlanand Chris Corbould

Will Win: Star Wars

Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

I think they'll want to give Star Wars something, but The Revenant or Mad Max could pull it off too.

Best Documentary

Amy
Producers: Asif Kapadia and James Gay-Rees

Cartel Land
Producers: Matthew Heineman and Tom Yellin

The Look of Silence
Producers: Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen

What Happened, Miss Simone?
Producers: Liz Garbus, Amy Hobby and Justin Wilkes

Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
Producers: Evgeny Afineevsky and Den Tolmor

Will Win: Amy

Could Win: What Happened, Miss Simone?

Should Win: What Happened, Miss Simone?

Documentary Short

Body Team 12

Chau, Beyond the Lines

Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

Last Day of Freedom

Will Win: A Girl in the River

Could Win: Body Team 12

Another super tough call.

Live Action Short

Ave Maria, Basil Khalil and Eric Dupont
Day One, Henry Hughes
Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut), Patrick Vollrath
Shok, Jamie Donoughue
Stutterer, Benjamin Cleary and Serena Armitage

Will Win: Shok

Could Win: Stutterer

Animated Short

Bear Story
Producers: Gabriel Osorio and Pato Escala

Prologue
Producers: Richard Williams and Imogen Sutton

Sanjay's Super Team
Producers: Sanjay Patel and Nicole Grindle

We Can't Live Without Cosmos
Producer: Konstantin Bronzit

World of Tomorrow
Producer: Don Hertzfeldt

Will Win: World of Tomorrow

Could Win: Sanjay's Super Team
Should Win: World of Tomorrow

Everyone check out your Netflix and watch World of Tomorrow. It's great and I really hope it wins!

Nomination run-down

They are here!  The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road cleaned up with, respectively, 12 and 10 nominations.  


Thoughts:

-After a confusing precursor season, the Oscars actually only left us with a few big surprises. The biggest things most weren't predicting were Tom Hardy (The Revenant) for Supporting Actor and Lenny Abrahamson (Room) for Director.

-The biggest snub was definitely Ridley Scott (The Martian) for Director, who many thought was the most likely winner. Another snub was Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation) for Supporting Actor, which also means we get the second year in a row of 20 white people and the hashtag #oscarssowhite. This can't be blamed on no choices. Besides Elba, Michael B. Jordan (Creed) would have made a great Best Actor candidate to go in a somewhat weak category.

-Not a total snub but a disappointment was Carol missing out on Best Picture, despite its 6 nominations. Director Todd Haynes may always be a little too art-house to make it big.

-This year, I had the exact same stats as last year, 36/43 for 84% in the categories I predicted. Not too bad I think.

Stats: (36/43) 84% 

Below are the nominees, my thoughts, and in italics my foolish first predictions of who will eventually win.

Picture
Spotlight
The Big Short
The Martian
The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Room

7/8

Just like last year, we ended up with 8 nominees. I had predicted Carol instead of Room, although I had Room right on the cusp so no major surprises here. All in all, a pretty interesting group of films this year, although Carol and Ex Machina would have made my day!  I'm especially pleased the beautiful Brooklyn made it through. My guess is that this will boil down to a Spotlight vs. The Big Short, unless The Revenant keeps up momentum. I don't dare to hope that Mad Max: Fury Road will pull through, as awesome as that would be.

Director

Alejandro G. Innarritu, The Revenant
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
Lenny Abrahamson, Room

4/5

I (and everyone else online) predicted Ridley Scott for The Martian, whose spot got taken by Lenny Abrahamson in Room.

Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Matt Damon, The Martian
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

5/5

The easiest category to predict, and it went as expected. No more drama to see here folks. No one can touch Leo for this Oscar.

Actress

Brie Larson, Room
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

4/5

I predicted Oscars would put in Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) instead of Lawrence, but the category fraud worked, so Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara both ended up in Supporting, leaving room for Rampling and Lawrence.  With Room making it in both Picture and Director, I think Brie Larson has the steam.

Supporting Actor

Locks
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight 
Tom Hardy, The Revenant

4/5

I had guessed Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation) instead of Hardy.  This contest will end up being Stallone vs. Rylance I think, with Bale having an outside shot.

Supporting Actress

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Rooney Mara, Carol
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

4/5

I predicted Helen Mirren (Trumbo) over Rachel McAdams, who was frankly fine but not overly impressive in Spotlight. Either Mara or Vikander, with their huge "supporting" roles, will likely win here.

Original Screenplay

Spotlight
Inside Out
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Straight Outta Compton

4/5

Tarantino missed out for The Hateful Eight and they went with Straight Outta Compton. It's hard to see Spotlight losing here.

Adapted Screenplay

The Big Short
The Martian
Brooklyn
Room
Carol

4/5

I'm happy to see Carol here, but sad it was at the expense of the excellent Steve Jobs screenplay. This one seems destined to go to The Big Short.

Film Editing

The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars, The Force Awakens

Foreign Language Film

Embrace of the Serpent, Colombia
Mustang, France
Son of Saul, Hungary
Theeb, Jordan
A War, Denmark

Original Score

Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
SIcario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Production Design

Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Visual Effects

Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Animated Feature

Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie was There

Cinematography

Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

Costume Design

Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

Documentary-Feature

Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom

Documentary Short

Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom

Makeup

Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-year-old man Who Climbed Out a Window and Disappeared
The Revenant

Song

Earned It, 50 Shades of Gray
Manta Ray, Racing Extinction
Simple Song #3, Youth
Til it Happens to You, The Hunting Ground
Writings on the Wall, Spectre

Look guys! 50 Shades of Gray is an Oscar nominee. And maybe winner?

Animated Short

Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay's Super Team
We Can't Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow

Live Action Short

Ave Maria
Day One
Everything will be OK
Shok
Stutterer

Sound Editing

Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Sound Mixing

Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Final Predictions

This has probably been the most up in the air Oscar season since I've started blogging, with lots of unknowns throughout just about all categories. You'll see my contenders list is pretty long throughout just to cover my ass! I'll be shocked if I do better than average in my percentages, but I'll take it if it means an Oscar race this exciting.

A few wishes for tomorrow morning:

-Mad Max leads nominations
-Ex Machina makes it in for Best Picture
-Brooklyn gets in for Picture, Actress (a given), and Screenplay
-Michael B. Jordan somehow makes it in for Creed.

Picture

Locks
1. Spotlight
2. The Big Short

Very Likely
3. The Martian
4. The Revenant
5. Mad Max: Fury Road

Possible
6. Bridge of Spies
7. Brooklyn
8. Carol
Room
Straight Outta Compton
Inside Out
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Ex Machina
Creed
The Danish Girl
Trumbo

Oscars can go from 5-10 nominees, and I'm going to guess this is an 8 year like last year.

Director

Very Likely
1. Ridley Scott, The Martian
2. Alejandro G. Innaritu, The Revenant
3. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Possible
4. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
5. Adam McKay, The Big Short
Todd Haynes, Carol
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
John Crowley, Brooklyn
Dennis Villenue, Sicario
Lenny Abrahamson, Room


Actor

Locks
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Very Likely
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
4. Matt Damon, The Martian
5. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Possible
Steve Carell, The Big Short
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Ian McKellan, Mr. Holmes
Michael Caine, Youth
Jacob Tremblay, Room

This is the one category that seems to have gelled, but there's probably room for an upset. If there is an upset, my strong hunch is it will be Carell as The Big Short has picked up steam.

Actress

Locks
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol

Possible
4. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Rooney Mara, Carol (If voters reject the Supporting campaign)
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Emily Blunt, Sicario
Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold

Vikander is being campaigned for Supporting, but Oscar voters very well may put their foot down on the category and decide she belongs in lead.  The same with Rooney Mara, but I'm guessing she stays in supporting. That fifth slot seems like a fight between Rampling and Lawrence.

Supporting Actor

Locks
1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Very Likely
2. Christian Bale, The Big Short
3. Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Possible
4. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
5. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
Benicio del Toro, Sicario
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Jacob Tremblay, Room

I will be 100% shocked if I nail this category. It's been all over the place this season, and I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the contenders in the last two spots. I toyed with leaving Ruffalo off, but if Spotlight is really strong it would make sense to have some acting nominations to go with it. If Elba misses here, we'll probably end up with another #oscarssowhite year,.
Supporting Actress

Very Likely
1. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
2. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (or for The Danish Girl if voters put it here instead of lead)
3. Rooney Mara, Carol

Possible
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Jane Fonda, Youth
Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Julie Walters, Brooklyn
Joan Allen, Room.

Another really confusing category, so much so I'm not willing to call anyone a lock. Many are predicting McAdams, but its a really unshowy role.  In words I never thought I'd say, I'm really hoping for Kristen Stewart, who has won lots of the critics awards for her role in a great small movie, to get in here.

Original Screenplay

Locks
1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out

Very Likely
3. The Hateful Eight

Possible
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Ex Machina
Sicario
Trainwreck
Joy

Adapted Screenplay

Locks
1. The Big Short

Very Likely
2. Steve Jobs
3. The Martian

Possible
4. Brooklyn
5. Room
Carol
The Revenant
Anomalisa
45 Years
Creed
The Danish Girl

There seems to be a sense that Carol is fading. If so, I think this is one place we might see it drop out.

Golden Globe Night Liveblog

I'll be posting here with updates throughout the night. Newest posts up top!


The Show!

-That's all for now folks! Thanks for following.

-Remember earlier when I listed my favorites in the conversation (Mad Max, Brooklyn, The Big Short, Carol)?  They all went home empty handed tonight.  An unpredictable night in an unpredictable season.

-Here we go with the last one.  Is it The Revenant? Spotlight, Mad Max, and Carol are all awardless right now, but might come back here. The Globes do like to spread the wealth. It is The Revenant. I have a feeling this won't repeat at the Oscars.....

-Leo and Kate Winslet both won awards tonight. #Titanic4eva

-Actor/Drama. Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant. He's one three Globes now (The Aviator and The Wolf of Wall Street), but no Oscars. It certainly seems like this is his year. I'm at 6/13- can I make it to 50% this year?

-Actress/Drama. Brie Larson in Room.  I was hoping for Saoirse, but I really love all these actresses. I did predict this one, so I'm 5/12. That cut to young Jacob Tremblay! He looks so moved.

-Best Picture Comedy/Musical: The Martian.  Missed this one too, so 4/11. Lots of folks carping about how this is classified as comedy. I actually don't have a problem with it- lots of jokes in the movie and it plays a lot lot lighter than something like Gravity. I'm pretty bummed The Big Short is coming up.... well short. Also Ridley Scott saying "screw you" to the orchestra. Funny or abrasive?

-Actress in a Comedy to Jennifer Lawrence in Joy. THIRD globe for her at such a young age. Short and sweet speech. Lots of folks were thinking this was Schumer's. 4/10 now, probably my worst year ever.

-TV Actress in a Drama. Taraji P. Henson in Empire. DC represent! Super excited, a little drunk, or both? Just the big film awards left now.

-Director to Innaritu for The Revenant. Seems kind of like a makeup award since they didn't give it to him last year for Birdman. Guys, my predictions really suck this year. 4/9.

-Denzel! Damn he's good. True love from the crowd too.

-When they went to commercial, Jane Fonda was caressing Terrence Howard's face. Man, I'd love to be a seat filler at the Globes.

-TV Drama to Mr. Robot. They like their new shoes here at the Globes, and this is supposed to be really good.

-Mad Max: Fury Road. I want to watch it again RIGHT NOW! So freaking amazing.

-"We all know who Mel blames....." BURN.  Context :(http://www.cnn.com/2012/04/12/showbiz/gibson-alleged-rants/ )
Also, when he was bleeped Ricky said "What the fuck does sugar tits mean?"

-Ricky's got a new beer... what will he say next?

-Best song. Pretty lackluster this year.  Writing's on the Wall-Sam Smith from Spectre. We can all agree that, as modern Bond songs go, this is no Skyfall by Adele, right? 4/8.

-Actress-Limited series/TV movie. Lady Gaga????????? In American Horror Story. We've seen it all, right? So the Globes do tend to be a little into their stars. (Not so) fun fact: Madonna (Evita) beat Frances McDormand (Fargo) in 1996. And check out this!

https://twitter.com/KateAurthur/status/686378657225568256

-Alright Ricky.... that Brad/Angelina joke was funny.

-Foreign Language Film. Son of Saul. 4/7 now.

-Actor in a TV Comedy. Gael Garcia Bernal (Mozart in the Jungle) over Jeffrey Tambor. WHY ARE THEY IGNORING THE SECOND SEASON OF TRANSPARENT??? This also makes Aziz Ansari's stunt (Reading the book "Losing to Jeffrey Tambor with Dignity") kind of awkward.

-Screenplay. Aaron Sorkin for Steve Jobs.  Whoa!  I definitely thought this was a Spotlight vs. The Big Short fight, although this might be my favorite screenplay of the nominated ones. I'm sucking in these predictions. 3/6.  Happy for the movie tonight. It's really good and really bombed at the box office.

Sly pulls out the best speech of the night too.  If you guys haven't seen Creed yet, please do. It's really good.

-Supporting Actor to Sly Stallone in Creed. Didn't predict this one. Stallone was really solid in this movie, and clearly a sentimental favorite, but how did they not nominate Michael B. Jordan for his incredible lead performance? Missed this one so I'm now 3/5.

-Animated to Inside Out of course. 3/4. Fun fact: director Pete Doctor just mentioned his wife Amanda, who was my wife's babysitter!

-Kate Hudson gets my vote for worst dressed of the night.

-Actor in a Comedy/Musical. Matt Damon in The Martian. 2/3 now.  The Martian was fun but has been a bit overhyped (IMO) as a "best" of the year. But no arguments with Damon's performance. It really carried the movie.

-Is Joy one of those movies where the previews look great and then it disappoints?  That's what I've heard.

-JLaw and AShu.  Up against each other tonight! Do they use the same hair dye?

-OK, just saw the Morricone has actually won two Golden Globes.... odd that Tarantino wouldn't know that.  Drunk, perhaps?

-Actor in a Drama. Jon Hamm in Mad Men! Still missing the Sterling Cooper gang.

-Jamie Foxx... and there's our Steve Harvey joke of the night. Best Score goes to Ennio Morricone for The Hateful Eight. 1/2 now. Quentin Tarantino accepting for him- giving a really fun speech.

-Supporting Actor- Christian Slater in Mr. Robot. Another one I haven't seen of course.

-Spy had some good moments for sure, but it was no Bridesmaids, right?

-Actor in a TV Movie.  Oscar Isaac in Show Me a Hero!!! Finally one I've seen. This is a great miniseries written by David Simon of The Wire.  And I love Oscar (Llewyn Davis forever!).

-Limited TV Series goes to Wolf Hall.  Supposed to be good- maybe I'll check it out.

-Gervais still has his glass of beer- think it's still his first?

-TV Comedy. Mozart in the Jungle..... what???? Not Transparent.  That Season 2 was incredible. The Globes do tend to go for the new shiny shows though.

-Actress-TV Comedy- Rachel Bloom (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend). No idea what this show is about.

-Supporting Actress-TV: Maura Tierney in The Affair.  One I haven't seen.  So many shows to watch, so little time.  I did used to like her a lot on ER back in the day.

-Supporting Actress in a movie: Kate Winslet! A bit of a shocker here.  I know some had problems with her accent in Steve Jobs, but I thought she was great in the movie.  0/1 so far.

-First few jokes are about trans people/characters.  Just as expected.

-As Ricky is showing front and center, this is the awards show where everyone gets to drink!

-Ricky Gervais.... too bad they couldn't get Tina Fey and Amy Poehler back. His schtick worked better in The Office and Extras than live.
















Red Carpet

All right folks, I'm no Joan Rivers in the fashion coverage department, but I'll see if I can manage a snarky comment or two.

-Why does Matt Lauer get this gig?

-I'll just say I've loved new it-girl Alicia Vikander for a while- she had a great supporting part in Anna Karenina and was in foreign nominee A Royal Affair a few years ago.

-Viola Davis is amazing but I just can't get into these Shonda Rimes shows. Not my bag.

-Amy Schumer with her sister: "We're both on fleek."

-Jamie Foxx's daughter is our awkward Miss Golden Globe for the night. And wearing a terrible dress.

-Denzel up for the Lifetime Achievement award. Well deserved!

-Just spotted Kate Hudson. Has anyone else had such lasting celebrity for such mediocre output over the years?  It's been 15 years since Almost Famous!

-And.... Rooney Mara will win the award for most oddly-styled nominee. She's definitely smiling more than she did a few years ago though.






Predictions (Film Awards Only)
It's been a while since I've blogged, and it's been an unpredictable year full of great movies. The Globes can be notoriously hard to predict, but I'll do my best. As for what I HOPE will win, put me on team Mad Max (!!!!!), Brooklyn, The Big Short, and Carol, perhaps in that order. Here's a quick rundown.

Picture, Drama

Carol, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight

Will Win:Spotlight
Might Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max Fury Road

Actor, Drama

Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant), Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs), Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl), Will Smith (Concussion)

Will Win: DiCaprio
Might Win: Fassbender (but DiCaprio's got this pretty locked down)
Should Win: I've only seen Steve Jobs here, and Fassbender would make a nice winner.

Actress, Drama

Cate Blanchett (Carol), Brie Larson (Room), Rooney Mara (Carol), Saorsie Ronan (Brooklyn), Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)

Will Win: Larson
Might Win: Ronan
Should Win: Ronan (but wow, what a category)

Picture, Comedy/Musical

The Big Short, Joy, The Martian, Spy, Trainwreck

Will Win: The Big Short
Might Win: The Martian
Should Win: The Big Short

Actor, Comedy/Musical

Christian Bale (The Big Short), Steve Carell (The Big Short), Matt Damon (The Martian), Al Pacino (Danny Collins), Mark Ruffalo (Infinitely Polar Bear)

Will Win: Damon
Might Win: Carell
Should Win: Bale

Actress, Comedy/Musical

Jennifer Lawrence (Joy), Melissa McCarthy (Spy), Amy Schumer (Trainwreck), Maggie Smith (The Lady in the Van), Lily Tomlin (Grandma)

Will Win: Schumer
Might Win: Lawrence
Should Win: Schumer

Supporting Actor

Paul Dano (Love & Mercy), Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), Michael Shannon (99 Homes), Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

Will Win: Rylance
Might Win: Stallone
Should Win: Dano

Supporting Actress

Jane Fonda (Youth), Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight), Helen Mirren (Trumbo), Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina), Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

Will Win: Vikander
Might Win: Leigh
Should Win: Vikander

Director

Todd Haynes (Carol), Alejandro Gonzales Innaritu (The Revenant), Thomas McCarthy (Spotlight), George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road), Ridley Scott (The Martian)

Will Win: Miller
Might Win: Scott (really almost anyone could take this
Should Win: Miller

Screenplay

The Big Short, The Hateful Eight, Room, Spotlight, Steve Jobs

Will Win: Spotlight
Might Win: The Big Short
Should Win: Steve Jobs

Score

Carol, The Danish Girl, The Hateful Eight, The Revenant, Steve Jobs

Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Might Win: Carol
Should Win: Carol

Song

Love Me Like You Do (50 Shades of Gray), One Kind of Love (Love and Mercy), See You Again (Furious 7), Simple Song #3 (Youth),  Writing's On the Wall (Spectre)

Will Win: One Kind of Love???
Might Win: Writing's On the Wall
Should Win: Simple Song #3

Foreign Film

The Brand New Testament, The Club, The FencerMustang, Son of Saul

Will Win: Son of Saul
Could Win: Mustang
Should Win: Haven't seen any, so I abstain!

Animated Film

Anomalisa, The Good Dinosaur, Inside Out, The Peanuts Movie, Shaun the Sheep Movie

Will Win: Inside Out
Could Win: Anomalisa
Should Win: I've only seen Inside Out, and it's great!

Best of 2014

7 months after the end of 2014, I'm ready to unveil my top 10 list! The delay has given me time to catch up on lots of good films from last year. I found last year (like most years) a really strong year in cinema if you knew where to look. There were lots of good foreign films and, despite what the Academy Awards looked like, movies made by or focused around women.  Of the 63 movies I saw last year, here are the ones that rose to the top!

Since I hate to leave them off, here are my #16-25 in alphabetical order, all movies well worth watching: The Babadook, a gripping Australian horror film; Beyond the Lights, a hugely entertaining musical drama with a breakout performance by Gugu Mbatha-Raw; Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, the rare special effects film with lots of ideas up its sleeve; Gone Girl, David Fincher's much-discussed thriller; Le Week-End, a film at turns caustic and touching which reminded me of an older version of the Before Sunrise movies; Mommy, a crazy Canadian melodrama from the young director Xavier Dolan; A Most Wanted Man, a smart thriller with Phillip Seymour Hoffman's last major role; Night Moves, director Kelly Reichardt's low-key thriller about environmental activists; and The Overnighters, a moving and surprising documentary about a pastor caring for workers in North Dakota.

Runners-Up (These 5 almost made it!):

Calvary: A funny and moving film about a good Irish priest (the excellent Brendan Gleeson) doing his best to minister to a town of wayward souls. It has a dark Irish humor and heart that I love.

Dear White People: The great and rare combination of really sharp satire and a cast of characters that the audience cares about. This film follows four black students at an Ivy League college, taking on ideas of racism, identity, and campus culture.

The Immigrant: I didn't love the subplot with Jeremy Renner's character, but large portions of this historical drama were among the most beautiful and moving of the year. Chief among its virtues is the luminous cinematography and and enormously powerful performance by Marion Cotillard as a woman clinging to her goodness and dignity in a tough new world. I hate to leave this one off my top 10.

Life Itself: Roger Ebert is near and dear to my heart, one of my guides as a film-loving teenager in the 90s. This documentary perfectly captures his life, his influence, and the happiness he found at the end of his life.

Wild: Beautifully filmed and fully focused on one woman's personal journey, I was completely immersed in Wild. In my mind, director Jean Marc-Valee took a big step up from his more-awarded Dallas Buyers Club. It even inspired me to take a 3-day hike!

Now on to my top 10:

10. Two Days, One Night: The Dardenne Brothers are masters at creating realist portraits of working-class residents in Europe. This is one of their best, starring Marion Cotillard as a factory worker facing modern capitalism as she forced to beg her coworkers for her job.

9. Leviathan: It's long, it's Russian, and I wasn't bored for a second. Leviathan is about family and class struggles in modern-day Russia and it has the scope and feel of a great novel. Beautifully shot and full of deep emotions, it had one of the most powerful endings of the year.

8. Selma: Director Ava Duvernay's skillful and moving historical drama will be remembered for years to come. Centered on David Oyelowo's riveting performance as Dr. King (let's take a moment of silence for his missing Oscar nomination....), the movie also uses its ensemble incredibly well, showing how many people were crucial to the civil rights movement.

7. Ida: The Academy crowned Ida the best foreign language film, and I agree. A quiet movie about a young woman in 1960s Poland preparing to be a nun, finding out she's Jewish, and spending time with her worldly and haunted aunt. Ida features two great performances, some of the best cinematography of the year, and two characters that haunted me for weeks.

6. Love is Strange: A beautiful film about community, family, love, and aging, Love is Strange focuses on two older men (Alfred Molina and John Lithgow) finally getting married and navigating tricky family relationships. The movie keeps a delicate tone that builds and culminates in its incredible ending sections.

5.Whiplash: The most thrilling and tense movie of last year, this is about a driven drummer and his domineering teacher. Miles Teller and J.K. Simmons work magic together, and the movie hooks you from the first scene. Director Damian Chezelle gave one of the best debuts I've seen in a long time.

4. Birdman: After winning Best Picture and Best Director, we saw the inevitable backlash against Birdman. It's perhaps not the deepest movie of the year, but man is it a lot of fun. I love backstage dramas, and every single cast member is perfect. Throw in the incredible single-take cinematography by Emmanuel Lubezki, and you have a real winner.

3. Under the Skin: This mix of science fiction, performance art (part of this was filmed "undercover"), and modern art film is certainly not to everyone's taste, but give it the time and it will haunt you. It's about.... well, an otherworldly being (Scarlett Johannson) experiencing modern life. I think it also has much to say about being human, being a woman, and the ways we look at and experience one another.

2. The Grand Budapest Hotel:  Grand Budapest contains the heaviest themes director Wes Anderson has ever done, but its pulled off with his assured and light touch. Anderson's meticulous style is a perfect match for this wartime comedy/drama of old manners, new threats, and the memory of things past.  Ralph Fiennes is absolutely perfect, robbed of an Oscar nomination.

1. Boyhood: From the moment I saw it, I  knew this would be my number one film of the year.  Director Richard Linklater broke new ground in fiction cinema, in filming the same actors over 12 years, letting the audience watch the passage of time before our very eyes. A landmark in film history, and emotionally stunning in the best, most natural way. 

2015- First half of the year

I've had a bit of a hiatus on the blog, so here's some thoughts on some 2015 releases, many of which are essential viewing. I can't remember the last time I saw two early releases I loved as much as my top 2.

In order of my preference....

Mad Max: Fury Road

This movie is absolutely as awesome and amazing as you've heard. Weird, thrilling, and filled with wall-to-wall action, this is one of the best theater experiences I've had in a long time. My usual problem with action movies is their muddled action sequences that exist just to have some cool tricks. Director George Miller does an incredible job of showing the stakes of each sequence and helping you know exactly what's going on, no matter how weird things get.  Whether you rate Mad Max as groundbreaking feminism or just kick-ass girl power, it's great seeing Furiosa (Charlize Theron) as an amazing action heroine. I could go on and on about everything I loved about this movie, but it's best to go in fairly fresh.

SEE IT!

Grade: A

Ex Machina

I've thought about Ex Machina a whole lot since I saw it a few months ago. It's a parable about a eccentric billionaire (Oscar Isaac) testing his lifelike robot (Alicia Vikander) on a naive young man (Domnhall Gleeson). The movie has many twists and turns, and its expert in the way it plays with the expectations and sympathies of the audience. After some great indie and foreign performances (A Royal Affair, Anna Karenina), Alicia Vikander becomes a star here, absolutely nailing a tricky role. Oscar Isaac is more than her equal, playing a megalomanic as chilled-out-bro. See it with someone who like to talk- I promise you it will lead to many discussions!

Grade: A

Inside Out

As you probably know, Inside Out has the high concept of taking place largely inside the mind of a young girl going through a life transition. The main characters in her head are Joy (Amy Poehler) and Sadness (Phyllis Smith), and they are joined by Fear, Anger, and Disgust.  It's a great concept and Pixar has a lot of fun playing with the ideas of how emotions are formed and change as we age. I especially loved the forays into other character's minds and into the land of dreams. That said, it didn't quite hit the (admittedly high) Pixar pinnacle for me. I think the idea is so strong that it becomes a little harder to connect on a human level with all of the goings-on.  While it was consistently funny and clever, I think the Toy Story films are a little more moving and honest about the process of growing up and letting go. You can probably ignore my criticisms, though, because it's still a really terrific movie. The standout for me of the movie was sadness as played by Phyllis Smith (The Office). Her voice is perfectly matched to the character, and she ends up being the most important character in the film. Another triumph for Pixar.

Grade: A-/B+

Me and Earl and the Dying Girl

After winning both the audience award and the Grand Jury prize at Sundance, Earl seemed to arrive with weaker reviews and box office than expected. It's certainly a very "Sundance" movie, in the sense of being small, quirky, obsessed with other films, and a wee bit twee. Yet I think it owns its vibe and pulls it off with charm. Perhaps it's because I (or my teenage self) identified with Greg (Thomas Mann), a kid making it through high school based on his love of film. He and his friend Earl (RJ Cyler) spend their days making parody films of classics until they befriend Rachel, a girl diagnosed with cancer. It definitely has a young adult novel feel, but in a really entertaining and lovely way, touching without being overly sentimental. If the movie was called Me and the Dying Girl, I would have really loved it.  Unfortunately the African-American Earl comes across as a two-dimensional character, existing more to teach Greg lessons than to be his own character. I also really loved the parental performances by three great TV performers, Connie Britten, Nick Offerman, and Molly Shannon.

Grade: B+

While We're Young

As someone in my 30s, caught between the characters in this movie, I could easily relate to director Noah Baumbach movie's culture clash comedy of a couple in their 40s (Ben Stiller, Naomi Watts) befriending a hipster couple in their 20s (Adam Driver, Amanda Seyfried). I REALLY LOVED this movie in the first 40 minutes or so. It absolutely nailed the way the character's talked, the idiosyncrasies of urban life, and the social anxieties of adult friendships. Unfortunately, the second half becomes pretty schematic, getting too tied up into a who did what story involving a documentary film being filmed by Driver's character. I wish Baumbach had the courage to just let his characters be and interact, just as he did in 2013's Frances Ha (one of my favorite films of the past few years). It's not that the rest is terrible, it's just not up to Baumbach's best work, including the first half of the movie.  

Grade: B (First half A, second half C+)

Love and Mercy

This biopic of Brian Wilson is split into two halves, once with Paul Dano as Pet Sounds-era Wilson and one with John Cusack as post-300 pound yet still troubled Wilson in the 1980s. I'm often slightly underwhelmed by biopics, preferring those that get really abstract (I'm Not There) or focus on a finite part of the story (Lincoln, Capote). Love and Mercy lands somewhere in the middle. While it does only focus on two short periods of Wilson's life, its story of downfall and redemption is still easy to map from the beginning. While I liked Cusack as the older Wilson and especially Elizabeth Banks as his love interest, I did think the earlier scenes were more interesting. The movie does a great job of giving us a sense of how Wilson's unique mind led both to the creative musical experimentation of Pet Sounds and to his troubles surviving in the music business and the world. Paul Dano is really great as the young Wilson, digging deep into the character.  A good movie you'll probably like even more than I did if you enjoy biopics.

Grade: B

Dope

Another hit from Sundance, Dope is a story of a trio of 3 nerdy smart kids, living in a troubled inner-city neighborhood.  They inadvertently get caught up with some local drug dealers, and hijinks ensue! If you can picture a mash-up of Boyz in the Hood, Ferris Bueller, and Superbad, you'd be somewhat in the ballpark of Dope. That's fun in a lot of ways, but also a little disconcerting. The tone of the movie shifts so much its hard to really get your handle on it, even while you're enjoying the experience. I think I preferred it most in its Bueller moments, having fun with the heists without getting overly heavy or over-the-top with its teen gross-out humor. The best part of the movie is the central trio (Shameik Moore, Tony Revilori, and Kiersey Clemons). Whenever they're interacting on screen they have a natural chemistry that carries you through the movie. Let's see more movies like this that give great non-stereotyped roles to young actors of color. Let's just make the scripts a bit tighter.

Grade: B-/C+

Up Soon: My (Very Late) Top 10 of 2014