Oscar winner predictions

Oscars are tomorrow.  Here is who will and should win.

I'm predicting multiple wins for:

-3 for Nomadland (Picture, Director, Cinematography)

-3 for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Actor, Costumes, Makeup)

-2 for Promising Young Woman (Actress, Original Screenplay)

Best Picture

The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland (WINNER, MY PICK)
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (RUNNER-UP)

I'm fairly confident Nomadland will win here. It's hit all the precursors and seems well-liked.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (MY PICK)
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (WILL WIN)
Anthony Hopkins, The Father (RUNNER-UP)
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari

While I still think Boseman will be rewarded for his great final performance, this seems to have turned into somewhat of a race, with Ahmed and (especially) Hopkins having real shots.

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (RUNNER-UP)
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland (MY PICK)
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (WILL WIN)

This is the most exciting and unpredictable Best Actress race in.... perhaps ever? And they are all terrific performances.  I almsot went with Day because she is able to stand out in a movie I was definitely mixed on.  In the end, I went with McDormand, because just she's never been better and damnit, why not give her a third Oscar? Anyone except Kirby has a real shot at winning.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (RUNNER-UP, MY PICK)
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (WILL WIN)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (RUNNER-UP)
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (WILL WIN)
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (MY PICK)
LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Director
Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (RUNNER-UP)
David Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland (WILL WIN, MY PICK)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja & Dan Swimer)
The Father (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller) (WILL WIN, MY PICK)
Nomadland (Chloé Zhao) (RUNNER-UP)
One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers)
The White Tiger (Ramin Bahrani)

A very tight race between The Father and Nomadland. This seems like a great place for the Academy to honor the ingenious craft of The Father.

Best Original Screenplay
Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas & Kenny Lucas)
Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)
Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell) (WILL WIN, MY PICK)
Sound of Metal (Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder & Darius Marder)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin) (RUNNER-UP)

Another two-way race. I'll be very annoyed if Sorkin wins for his shaky and flawed script.

Best Costume Design
Emma (RUNNER-UP, MY PICK)
Mank
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (WILL WIN)
Mulan
Pinocchio

Best Original Score
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Minari (RUNNER-UP)
News of the World
Soul (WILL WIN, MY PICK)

Best Animated Short Film
Burrow (RUNNER-UP)
Genius Loci
If Anything Happens I Love You (WILL WIN)
Opera
Yes-People

Best Live-Action Short Film
Feeling Through
The Letter Room (RUNNER-UP)
The Present
Two Distant Strangers (WILL WIN)
White Eye

Best Documentary Feature
Collective
Crip Camp (RUNNER-UP)
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher (WILL WIN)
Time (MY PICK)

Best Documentary Short Subject
Colette (RUNNER-UP)
A Concerto Is a Conversation
Do Not Split
Hunger Ward
A Love Song for Latasha (WILL WIN)

Best International Feature Film
Denmark, Another Round (WILL WIN)
Hong Kong, Better Days
Romania, Collective
Tunisia, The Man Who Sold His Skin
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Quo Vadis, Aida? (RUNNER-UP)

Best Sound
Greyhound (RUNNER-UP)
Mank
News of the World
Sound of Metal (WILL WIN, MY PICK)
Soul 

Best Production Design
The Father (RUNNER-UP, MY PICK)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank (WILL WIN)
News of the World
Tenet

Best Film Editing
The Father (MY PICK)
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal (RUNNER-UP)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (WILL WIN)

Best Cinematography
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank (RUNNER-UP)
News of the World
Nomadland (WILL WIN, MY PICK)
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Visual Effects
Love and Monsters
The Midnight Sky (RUNNER-UP)
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Tenet (WILL WIN)

Best Animated Feature Film
Onward
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul (WILL WIN, MY PICK)
Wolfwalkers (RUNNER-UP)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (WILL WIN, MY PICK)
Mank
Pinocchio (RUNNER-UP)

Best Original Song
“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (RUNNER-UP, MY PICK)
“Fight For You” from Judas and the Black Messiah
“lo Sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (WILL WIN)
“Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7