Oscar Nominations!!

So the Oscar nominations are now out! I MAY have been 3 minutes late to pick up my third graders from the auditorium so I could finish watching the nomination announcements on my computer at school....... but sometimes you have to make sacrifices.

First a few thoughts before I run through the major categories.

-Overall, this is a really terrific lineup of actors. There is almost no "filler" from mediocre movies like we saw last year (The Last Station, The Lovely Bones, Nine, Invictus).

-My favorite category: Best Supporting Actor-LOVE this lineup. Followed closely by Best Actress.

-Least favorite category: Best Supporting Actress. Not bad at all. Just not as filled with greatness as the other acting categories.

-There's some great young talent out there. Natalie Portman, Jennifer Lawrence, Michelle Williams, James Franco, Jesse Eisenberg, Hailee Steinfeld are 32 or under.

Yes!

-I'm so glad for the Winter's Bone love. Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor (John Hawkes in a bit of a surprise), and Adapted Screenplay. It's the only true indie in the Best Picture race, and it's damn good. See it if you haven't.

-Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom. A great performance in a small Australian movie. I'm glad the Academy recognized it.

-Exit Through the Gift Shop in Best Documentary. Unlike typical Academy tastes, but what a great movie. Check it out on Netflix watch now.

-Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine. Great choice for the coveted fifth slot.

No......

-I didn't really think Ryan Gosling would get nominated for Best Actor for Blue Valentine, but there was an outside chance the Academy didn't take. His was probably my favorite performance of the year.

-No costume design nomination for Black Swan. Really??

-No Film Editing nomination for Inception. It certainly wasn't one of my favorite movies of the year, but its editing was superb.

-Despite the love for many aspects of 127 Hours, no Cinematography nomination for 127 Hours. Wasn't that kind of its greatest strength?

Best Picture

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

How I Did: 9/10. I thought they'd go for The Town rather than 127 Hours. Everyone figured either The Town, 127 Hours, or Winter's Bone would miss. I'm really glad Winter's Bone stuck it in. I liked The Town a smidgen more than 127 Hours, but either way I'm fine. As for the whole lineup-I've seen them all by nomination morning! I'm proud to say there's not a dud among these movies. In fact, I rated them all at least a B+, so I think it's a really strong lineup.

What Will Win: It looks like a tight, tight race between The King's Speech and The Social Network. The Social Network has the buzz, but The King's Speech did exceptionally well today. If I had to put money on it, I think I'd stick with The Social Network.

Actor

Javier Bardem, Biutiful

Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

James Franco, 127 Hours

How I Did: 4/5. I thought Robert Duvall (Get Low) would get in, but instead it was a surprise nod for Bardem in the foreign film Biutiful (also nominated for Foreign Language film). I've heard he's terrific. A good category, although I was REALLY hoping for a surprise nod for Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine, probably my favorite performance of the year.

Who Will Win: Colin Firth. Take it to the bank.

Actress

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

How I Did: 5/5!! I predicted it. I haven't seen Rabbit Hole yet, but these other 4 performances are all completely Oscar worthy. What a terrific category.

Who Will Win: Portman, with a small chance Bening pulls off an upset. Black Swan didn't do as well as it could have today, so perhaps it's not entirely loved by the Academy.

Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Fighter

John Hawkes, Winter's Bone

Jeremy Renner, The Town

Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

How I Did: 5/5! I correctly guessed Hawkes would pull off a surprise nomination over Andrew Garfield from The Social Network. I LOVE this category. In fact, I think this would be my exact lineup if I had a ballot. All 5 of these gentlemen gave amazing performances.

Who Will Win: Christian Bale, with a teeny tiny chance Geoffrey Rush could win.

Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Fighter

Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

How I Did: 4/5. I thought they would go with Mila Kunis in Black Swan instead of Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom. I just saw Animal Kingdom last week, though, and I think they made the right choice. This is probably my least favorite of the acting categories. I loved Adams and Weaver. Bonham Carter was good in a limited role. Leo was interesting but over-the-top. Steinfeld was strong for a young actor, but not quite to the level of greatness for me.

Who Will Win: This is the only really interesting acting race. I think it's between Melissa Leo and Hailee Steinfeld, although I think Adams has a small chance as well.

Director

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit

David Fincher, The Social Network

Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

David O. Russell, The Fighter

How I Did: 4/5. I, along with everyone else, though Christopher Nolan would be nominated for Inception. I predicted him instead of the Coens. This is the third time Nolan has had a Directors Guild nomination and then miss the Oscar race (after Memento and The Dark Knight).

Who Will Win: Fincher, I'm pretty sure. Even if The Social Network doesn't win Best Picture.

Original Screenplay

Another Year

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King's Speech

How I Did: 4/5. I thought they would go for Black Swan over Mike Leigh's Another Year. I haven't seen Another Year yet, but I'm a big fan of Leigh and his work.

Who Will Win: The King's Speech, with an outside shot for The Kids Are All Right.

Adapted Screenplay

127 Hours

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter's Bone

How I Did: 4/5. I thought The Town would get in instead of 127 Hours, which did much better than I expected today. A nice lineup of scripts.

Who Will Win: The Social Network. For sure.

My Stats: Of the categories I predicted, I got 39/45 for a percentage of 87%. Not too shabby. This is EXACTLY the percentage I got last year. Maybe one year I'll up it to 90%.

If you'd like to see the whole list, go here

Final Oscar Predictions

Nominations are coming on Tuesday morning (!), so here are my final picks. I'll try to list the nominees more or less in order of likelihood.

Picture

Sure Things

The Social Network

The King's Speech

Black Swan

The Fighter

Inception

Looking Good

True Grit

Toy Story 3

The Kids Are All Right

Questionable

The Town

Winter's Bone

Runners-Up

127 Hours

Another Year

The Ghost Writer

Shutter Island

Blue Valentine

The second-year of the 10-wide field makes the picks for the last 2 slots a little tricky. I'll frankly be shocked if anything other than the top 10 or 127 Hours makes it in, though. After my viewing of True Grit today, I've now seen ALL of the main contenders before the nominations, a nice feat for me.

Actor

Sure Things

Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

James Franco, 127 Hours

Looking Good

Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Questionable

Robert Duvall, Get Low

Runners-Up

Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

Javier Bardem, Biutiful

Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter

This category has seemed set for a while, but can Duvall still make it in? I'm betting yes, but I will be THRILLED if Gosling takes the fifth spot.

Actress

Sure Things

Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Looking Good

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Questionable

Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Runners-Up

Lesley Manville, Another Year

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (If voters decide to take on the category fraud-she's being campaigned for Supporting)

Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right

Hilary Swank, Conviction

Noomi Rapace, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Tilda Swinton, I Am Love

This category is chock full of contenders, and there is a wide open race for that fifth slot. I think we may see something interesting in this category.

Supporting Actor

Locks

Christian Bale, The Fighter

Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Looking Good

Jeremy Renner, The Town

Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

Questionable

John Hawkes, Winter's Bone

Runners-Up

Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

Matt Damon, True Grit

Sam Rockwell, Conviction

Bill Murray, Get Low

I'm making my biggest leap here predicting that the Academy will follow the Screen Actors Guild lineup and pick Hawkes over Garfield. This may be wishful thinking because I would LOVE this lineup if it followed my predictions.

Supporting Actress

Sure Things

Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Amy Adams, The Fighter

Looking Good

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

Questionable

Mila Kunis, Black Swan

Runners-Up

Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Lesley Manville, Another Year (If voters vote for her in Supporting instead of lead...)

Barbara Hershey, Black Swan

Dianne Weist, Rabbit Hole

Another interesting category that could have some shakeup depending on where Steinfeld ends up.

Director

Locks

David Fincher, The Social Network

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Christopher Nolan, Inception

Looking Good

Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

Questionable

David O. Russell, The Fighter

Runners-Up

Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit

Debra Granik, Winter's Bone

Danny Boyle, 127 Hours

Mike Leigh, Another Year

I think there is a really horse race between the Coens and Russell for that fifth slot. I would be thrilled if Granik pulled off a nomination, but I don't think it will happen.

Original Screenplay

Locks

The King's Speech

The Kids Are All Right

Inception

Questionable

The Fighter

Black Swan

Runners Up

Another Year

Blue Valentine

The first three will definitely be nominated and will soon be duking it out for the win. After that, I'm guessing they'll likely go with the probable Best Picture nominees.

Adapted Screenplay

Locks

The Social Network

Winter's Bone

Toy Story 3

Probable

True Grit

Vulnerable

The Town

Runners Up

127 Hours

Ghost Writer

Rabbit Hole

Again the fifth slot looks like it could go a lot of ways.

I won't go into full predictions for all the categories, but I'll make some guesses on the number of nominees for some of the top contenders.

Inception: 10 (Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Art Direction, Editing, Visual Effects, Score, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing)

True Grit:10 (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Art Direction, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Makeup)

The King's Speech: 9 (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Director, Original Screenplay, Costume Design, Art Direction, Editing)

Black Swan: 8 (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Director, Original Screenplay, Editing, Costumes, Cinematography)

The Social Network: 8 (Picture, Actor, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Score, Cinematography, Editing)

The Fighter: 6 (Picture, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actress, Director, Original Screenplay)

If things end up this way, it will be very interesting. It's kind of an Academy tradition that the movie with the most nominations goes on to win Best Picture. The Social Network is the frontrunner right now, but it look as if 2 or 3 movies will likely beat it out in nominations.

Check back Tuesday to see how my predictions fared!

Blue Valentine & Scott Pilgrim vs. The World

Blue Valentine

You know a movie is great when it sticks with you, haunts you, when you can't get the characters out of your head. Ever since seeing Blue Valentine on Sunday, I've been thinking about the incredibly sad story of Dean (Ryan Gosling) and Cindy (Michelle Williams) a whole lot. I can't remember the last time a movie was so heartbreakingly real and true without ever once going over the top. It's sad, yes, but the kind of sad you feel glad to have witnessed. Something about the relationship of these two characters strikes you as unflinchingly honest and beautiful, even in their worst moments.

The movie is split between the present day, when Dean and Cindy are going through a period of crisis in their relationship, and about 6 years earlier, when Dean and Cindy were beginning their relationship. When I had read about the movie, I imagined that the earlier scenes would be all sweetness and light and the later scenes incredibly sad. It doesn't play out that way at all. Just as many sad event happen in the earlier scenes, but the difference is the relationship between the two characters. The early scenes are infused with a sense of connection and care and the later scenes show the fissure that has occurred.

I can't say enough about the two central performances. With this performance following his spectacular turns in Half Nelson (2006) and Lars and the Real Girl (2007), I think I can confidently name Ryan Gosling my favorite modern actor. He is so charismatic, natural, and unique in his performance as the more outgoing and aggressive one in the relationship. He feels entirely like a complete person, and not at all like a character type. Michelle Williams plays a quieter character, and in some ways her challenge may be even greater. She has such an uninhibited naturalism in this role, she also makes her role deep and affecting. There is one crucial scene in the movie that is absolutely gripping, thanks in large part to her performance. If there's any justice in this year's Oscar race, both actors will be nominated for their roles.

Blue Valentine has gotten a lot of press for it's initial NC-17 rating, later changed to an R. I'm frankly confused at the initial rating. Sure, there's some sex and a bit of nudity, but nothing more than many other mainstream R movies. I think the ratings board couldn't handle the emotional truth of the movie. If you want to see highlights of emotionally truthful acting, you should see it as soon as possible.

Grade: A

Scott Pilgrim vs. The World (2010)

If there's a relationship movie that's the opposite of Blue Valentine, Scott Pilgrim might be it. I happened to see them a day apart, which made for an interesting contrast. Director Edgar Wright pulls out every video game, comic book styling he can throw in to the movie to show the story of a young band member (Michael Cera playing.....wait for it.... the EXACT SAME character he always plays, although I guess he's good at it) who has to fight the "Seven Evil Exes" in order to win the love of his crush.

I was with this movie for about the first 45 minutes or so. There's a great supporting cast you'll recognize from lots of movies, and the stylishness of the movie is fun to watch. After a while, though, I really wanted to feed the movie some Ritalin. The fights get a bit redundant, and I can't say I ever felt any emotional connection to the characters. If you're a comic book/video game enthusiast, you may appreciate this movie more than me.

Grade: C+

Oscar Nominee Prediction Updates

I think I did a decent job with my earlier predictions but I've made a few changes in terms of likelihood. Also, a few comment after each category.

Picture

The Social Network

The King's Speech

True Grit

Black Swan

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

Toy Story 3

The Town

Winter's Bone

Alternate: 127 Hours

Buzz has definitely coalesced around these 11 movies. Which one will they leave out? I'm thinking it's between The Town, Winter's Bone, and 127 Hours for the last 2 slots. There has been a lot of buzz about voters refusing to see 127 Hours because of the arm cutting scene, so I'm thinking it's the most likely candidate to be out. I'm really really hoping Winter's Bone makes it in.

Actor

Colin Firth, The King's Speech

James Franco, 127 Hours

Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Robert Duvall, Get Low

Alternate: Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine, Javier Bardem, Biutiful

It feels like this will be the five. Get Low has definitely lost buzz, but I think Duvall's legacy will carry him through in the end.

Actress

Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Alternate: Lesley Manville, Another Year, Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right, Hilary Swank, Conviction

The top 3 are absolutely locked, Kidman is likely, and there's a tough fight for the last spot. Why do I have a weird feeling that Swank could sneak in?? Manville is being raved about by the critics in her Mike Leigh film, but if Sally Hawkins couldn't make it in an equally acclaimed performance in a weaker year for actresses, I think Manville might miss out.

Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Fighter

Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Jeremy Renner, The Town

Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

John Hawkes, Winter's Bone

Alternate: Andrew Garfield, The Social Network, Matt Damon, True Grit, Sam Rockwell, Conviction, Bill Murray, Get Low

I'm going out on a limb and saying the Winter's Bone fans might pull in the superb John Hawkes. I also think Garfield might miss out-it's not a super showy role and he's not that well known. You can already call it a win for Bale, barring a surprise upset by Rush. If this ends up being the lineup, this might be one of my favorite Supporting Actor categories ever. These performances were all truly great.

Supporting Actress

Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Amy Adams, The Fighter

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

Mila Kunis, Black Swan

Alternates: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom, Dianne Weist, Rabbit Hole

This really feels like the lineup to me. Weaver was very acclaimed, but did anyone see her small Australian movie? (I'm getting it when it hits Netflix)

Director

David Fincher, The Social Network

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Christopher Nolan, Inception

Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit

Alternates: David O. Russell, The Fighter, Debra Granik, Winter's Bone, Danny Boyle, 127 Hours

This is an interesting category. I think the top 3 are fairly solid. After that I think any of the other folks could make

Winter Break Catch-Up: The Figher, The King's Speech, and many more

With a two-week winter break (and a bout of sickness before that), I tend to do so much watching of movie that I have little time to blog. Preparing for my end-of-year wrap-up, I'm trying to catch up on a lot of 2010 movies. Here's some longer notes on The Fighter and The King's Speech (look for both to rack up the Oscar nominations) and some short notes on my Netflix views.

The Fighter

The Fighter is a traditional boxing movie with a twist. It is an up-by-the

bootstraps tale of a weak fighter (Micky Ward, played by Mark Wahlberg), who, through some training and determination, makes it to a big fight. The difference, however, is how little the movie is really about the boxing. Director David O. Russell, who made Three Kings and I Heart Huckabees, uses the boxing story as a chance to take a sociological/tragic/humorous look at Ward's extended, highly dysfunctional family, especially his crack-addict brother and sometime coach Dicky, played in a remarkable performance by Christian Bale.

Micky is initially managed by his mother, played brashly by Melissa Leo. She is constantly followed by a throng (7?) of his sisters decked out in early-90s trashy outfits. Things start to change when he starts a relationship with a local bartender (Amy Adams) who encourages him to stand up to his family.

The performances are all great. Mark Wahlberg is the least colorful of the main characters, but he still manages to imbue his character with heart and sympathy. Christian Bale is simply astonishing in his crack-addict role, and I'll be very surprised is he doesn't win the Supporting Actor Oscar. I also loved Amy Adams in an atypical role for her. She's the best she's been since her revelatory role in Junebug, one of my favorite movies ever.

The Fighter is the kind of movie where I cannot find much to quibble with at all. Perhaps there were times when mom and sisters threatened to go over-the-top, but it also made the movie so much fun. Nevertheless, it doesn't quite rise to the level of greatness to me, although individual scenes do achieve that power. Perhaps the sports-movie story arc is too familiar, but as much as I enjoyed the movie, it didn't hit greatness for me. A well-made, extremely well-acted, and very entertaining movie that will do very well Oscar nomination morning.

Grade: B+

The King's Speech

While The King's Speech is a very different movie than The Fighter, I have many of the same feelings about it. A somewhat familiar genre (royalty drama), great performances, highly entertaining, well made, and yet not quite transcendent.

The best reason to see this movie is the absolutely masterful performances by Colin Firth (as King George VI) and Geoffrey Rush (as his speech therapist Lionel Logue). The movie starts a little slowly, as we see the Duke (he later becomes king) hobbled by his stutter and pitied by his royal family. As soon as the two men meet and begin their sessions, however, the sparks in the movie start to fly.

The core of the movie is really about friendship. In a world where royalty and commoners were kept apart, but where a vicious war was about to unite the country, here is an example of what friendship can achieve. A late scene in the movie of Rush standing by as Firth gives a speech is truly beautiful.

Director Tom Hooper crafts The King's Speech expertly, filming the whole movie in a sort of muddy War-era England. He wisely keeps the action on the main relationship in the movie, while giving us glimpses of the rest of the royal family.

As with The Fighter, I don't have much to criticize in this movie, but neither did it achieve greatness for me. I've heard a lot about the Best Picture race boiling down to The King's Speech vs. The Social Network. While it's certainly plausible The King's Speech could pull it off, I would have to put my money on The Social Network. You can already ink in your ballot for Best Actor, though. Colin Firth will be on stage.

Grade: B+

Other notes.....

Since I've been busy viewing, I'll try to keep my notes quick. I've been especially trying to catch up with some prominent foreign and documentary films.

Cairo Time

A very pleasant surprise. This movie is sort of a Lost in Translation set in Egypt. The principal characters are Juliette (Patricia Clarkson), an American traveling to meet her husband, and Tareq (Alexander Siddig), her husband's colleague who joins her for her journey through the city. This movie is definitely worth seeing for Clarkson's performance alone. She is that amazing. Her character arc is slow and gradual, but Clarkson is such a masterful actress you can feel each moment of change so beautifully. Candian director Ruben Nadda has made a very impressive movie. For those who want movies with a lot of plot, you probably won't like it. For those who are into atmosphere and acting, however, I definitely recommend it.

Grade: B+

Easy A

Another pleasant surprise, and it also has a great performance by Clarkson. Emma Stone is fantastic as Olive, a whip-smart teen who gets mistaken for a slut and has some fun with her classmates. She also has some really cool parents played by Clarkson and Stanley Tucci. This movie was definitely reminiscent of 80s John Hughes movies (it even acknowledges its debt with a little montage) in a good way. Of course elements are predictable, but it was really fun to watch, and I think Emma Stone is on her way to stardom.

Grade: B+

Everyone Else

If you know me as a blogger, you know I love quiet character studies. In fact, they're one of my favorite genres. Even so, this German movie tested my patience. This story of a disintegrating relationship between a young German couple was well-acted and interesting for a while, but it gradually grew tiresome. The stakes in their casual relationship didn't seem that high, so I eventually lost interest.

Grade: C

Exit Through the Gift Shop

I don't want to say too much about this movie, because the less you know about it the better. It's about the street art (or grafitti) movement and many of the folks involved. It's made by Banksy, the British graffiti superstar and focuses on another fascinating character. If you're into art, or street art, or self-delusional people, watch it. It's on Netflix's Watch Now.

Grade: A-

Mother

This Korean thriller was funny and atmospheric and I admired a lot about it. Kim Hye-Ja is excellent as the mother of a mentally challenged young man accused of murdering a young girl. Something about this movie didn't quite click with me, though. The mystery gets a little overly murky. It's the kind of movie I can see others loving, but it just wasn't quite my taste.

Grade: B-

Mother and Child

This movie from director Rodrigo Garcia (who directed the excellent movie Nine Lives and created the excellent HBO series In Treatment) is about the scars of motherhood and adoption. It's kind of one of those "we're all connected" movies (think 21 Grams, Babel, Crash), so if you like those you'll probably be intrigued. The lead actresses (Annette Bening, Naomi Watts, and Kerry Washington) are all excellent in tricky roles that have to be both sympathetic and yet a bit off-putting. Samuel L. Jackson and Shareeka Epps (who was sensational as the young teen in Half Nelson) also provide strong support. It's good, but it's filmed a bit like a TV show. If it had some more filmmaking aplomb, I think it would have been stronger. It's good, though, and worth checking out.

Grade: B

Restrepo

This documentary follows a company of soldiers as they work in the deadliest valley in Afghanistan. This documentary was extremely eye-opening for me in getting an inside view of what life in wartime is like. You get both the good (the friendship, sacrifice, and strength of the troops) and bad (masculine energy run amok, a certain callousness to deaths of Afghan civilians and soldiers). Perhaps a little longer than it needs to be, but very strong.

Grade: B+

Soul Kitchen

Turkish-German director Fatih Akin made The Edge of Heaven, one of my favorite movies of 2008. His movies usually involve the stresses and opportunities of a cross-cultural Europe. In Soul Kitchen, he turns the same theme to comedy, as his Greek protagonist tries to turn a dump of a restaurant into a great dining experience. This movie started out really strong, but I thought it focused too much on the relationships outside the restaurant and not enough on the fascinating interplay of the food, cooks, and patrons in the restaurant.

Grade: B-

Watching again.....

As I've been sharing my favorite movies of the year with others, I've had the chance to watch some of my favorites of the year again. Winter's Bone and The Kids Are All Right looked even better on a second view, so much so that I think I'll change my grades to solid As and drop the minus. Toy Story 3, which I originally gave an A, absolutely deserves it. It's absolutely terrific.

First Oscar Predictions

As Oscar season kicks off with tons of precursor awards (the long and short of it-The Social Network is dominating), I thought it was time for my first stab at some predictions. Here's my current predictions for each of the major categories, in order of likelihood. I'll try to update them every couple of weeks, and things become a bit clearer.

Picture

The Social Network

The King's Speech

The Fighter

Inception

True Grit

The Kids Are All Right

Toy Story 3

Black Swan

The Town

Winter's Bone

Actor

Colin Firth, The King's Speech

James Franco, 127 Hours

Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Robert Duvall, Get Low

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Actress

Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Lesley Manville, Another Year

Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Fighter

Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

Jeremy Renner, The Town

Supporting Actress

Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

Amy Adams, The Fighter

Dianne Weist, Rabbit Hole

Director

David Fincher, The Social Network

Christopher Nolan, Inception

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit

Black Swan & 127 Hours

The last two movies I've seen in the theater are both about sacrificing your physical self for various reasons, whether those reasons are for survival or artistic perfection. One is my favorite of the year and the other is also a must-see.

Black Swan

This has been my most anticipated movie of the year ever since I saw the electrifying preview, and it did not disappoint one bit. Director Darren Aronofsky (Pi, Requiem for a Dream, The Fountain, The Wrestler) is one

of the most interesting and passionate director working today, and this is another remarkable addition to his resume. What is it? A ballet movie, a psychological horror film, a dark fairy tale, and a depiction of the depths of the artistic process. In my view, it succeeds brilliantly on all accounts.

I want to convey all the things I love about this movie without giving too much away, so I'll try to convey my passion without too many spoilers. I love how this movie builds from a quiet and meditative start to a deranged, passionate, violent, and out of control final third. Arono

fsky builds tension and dread so expertly in this movie, I'm astounded. Between The Wrestler and Black Swan, I think it's fair to call Aronofsky the master of looking unblinkingly at the extremes the human body can be exposed to.

All of Arronofsky's skill and passion would be for nothing if he didn't have the perfect actress at the center of this movie. Unless I'm mistaken, I don't think there's a scene that doesn't contain Nina Sayers, played by Natalie Portman. Portman, who trained over a year for this role, is perfect as Nina. Her ballet skills are stunning, and she completes a remarkable character arc. I'm calling it now-I think she'll win the Oscar. My second-favorite performance is by Mila Kunis as Lily, the rival/enemy/friend (?) to Nina. She is the perfect foil throughout the film, and she had to learn ballet as well. Barbara Hershey and Vincent Cassel are also excellent in key roles.

Black Swan is getting quite a rousing critical reaction, and of course is facing some inevitable backlash. The criticisms I've heard are that it's a thin story, overly melodramatic, or too campy. What I love about it is that Arronofsky doesn't shy away from the melodrama, or the camp. He embraces it and it makes the movie that much more strange and wonderful. Perhaps you'll disagree, but it's definitely one you'll want to discuss on the way out of the theater.

Grade: A (My favorite of the year so far)

127 Hours

Speaking of body mutilation, here comes 127 Hours, by director Danny Boyle (Trainspotting, Slumdog Millionaire) and actor James Franco. I'm guessing most readers know the central dilemma and outcome of this movie, so I won't worry too much about spoilers.

For a movie about a man stuck under a rock, 127 Hours has a considerable amount of energy. I love how Boyle leads up to the central accident. In no more than a handful of minutes,

we immediately get to understand the energy, adventurous spirit and recklessness of Aron Ralston.

Once he's under the rock, it's up to James Franco to carry the movie. Much like Natalie Portman in Black Swan, this movie lives or dies with Franco's performance, and he does a terrific job.

[Spoiler Alert-if you don't know much about the movie]. One question to ask is why you would possibly want to sit in a theater and watch a man saw off his own arm. By the time I got to the scene, I was ready to watch it. I knew it was coming, I felt Ralston's desperation, and I just wanted to see it. In a way, it's a really beautiful scene. Ralston has a remarkable yearning for life, and I take my hats off to him for doing what he had to do to survive.

127 Hours was fascinating, superbly acted by Franco, and visually interesting. I wanted a little bit more about Ralston's character, though. This movie has some parallels to Into the Wild, and I felt that movie had a greater emotional depth to it. I really liked 127 Hours, but it's not a movie I'd go back to again and again.

Grade: B+

Other 2010 Movies

How to Train Your Dragon

This was a huge hit, both critically and commercially, so I guess I was expecting a bit more. I liked the dragon, mostly because he kind of acted like my cat. The main character was also charming. I just think the whole thing was a little too heavy on the action sequences and not especially original.

Grade: C+

The Girl Who Played With Fire

My favorite of the Stieg Larrson books, but I didn't like this movie as well as the first one. It just doesn't give the emotional depth to Lisbeth that is so interesting in the books. I'll still see the last movie on DVD, though.

Grade: C+

Best Performances of the "00s": Actress

Finishing up my look back at the past decade (2000-2009), here are my favorite performances by some extremely talented lead actresses.

Ellen Burstyn, Requiem for a Dream (2000)

In Darren Arronfsky's tour-de-force of human misery, Burstyn's portrayal of the lonely, painkiller-addicted widow Sara Goldfarb is perhaps the heart of the movie. So remarkable.

Check out this monologue for an example of Burstyn's greatness.

Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky (2008)

Is there a more lovable and singular performance this decade? Hawkins constantly teeters on the edge of annoying in her performance as Poppy, but we can't help but fall in love with her. In the end, it's Hawkins' performance that gives this movie so much added depth.

Nicole Kidman, Dogville (2003)

I wavered between picking Kidman's charismatic performance in Moulin Rogue or this emotionally wrenching portrait of Grace, a woman on the run in a small town which quickly turns sinister. Kidman, who has a striking charisma when put in the right roles, runs the gamut of emotions in this emotionally raw film from provocateur Lars Von Trier. Here's an early scene between Kidman and Paul Bettany, also great in the movie.

-Besides the aforementioned Moulin Rogue (2002), the other Kidman performance I liked best this decade was probably in Birth (2004). She won her Oscar for The Hours (2002), where I think her performance is good rather than great.

Laura Linney, You Can Count on Me (2000)

I think Laura Linney is a true acting treasure. I've never seen her in a performance that felt false or forced. Linney is hilarious, touching, and a perfect partner for Mark Ruffalo in this great film. Nuanced and true-to-life sibling relationships seem so rare on film, and this is surely one of the best.

-I also loved Linney's lead performance in The Savages (2007) and her supporting roles in The House of Mirth (2000), Kinsey (2004), and The Squid and the Whale (2005)

Helen Mirren, The Queen (2006)

This performance was probably the most awarded of any actress performance this decade, and for good reason. Mirren goes far beyond mere imitation to create a truly deep and nuanced portrayal of a chilly character in Stephen Frears' highly engaging political drama.

Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven (2002)

Todd Haynes' 2002 movie is simply stunning, and it wouldn't work without a perfect lead performance, which he gets from Moore. Her performance has to both play for style (as the whole movie is filmed as a 1950s-era melodrama) and for real, so the audience connects fully with the emotions. She's perfect.

-While Moore is one of my favorite actresses, I'm surprised by how few of her best performances are in the 2000s. Besides this performance, I love her most in Boogie Nights (1997), Safe (1995), and Vanya on 42nd Street (1994).

Movie Videos & Movie Scenes at MOVIECLIPS.com

Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake (2004)

As a good-natured, but also naive, amateur abortionist, Imelda Staunton is perfection. Director and writer Mike Leigh (who also directed Sally Hawkins in Happy-Go-Lucky) partners with Staunton to create a quietly powerful performance.

Charlize Theron, Monster (2003)

Oscar gets a bad wrap for too-often awarding actresses playing real people and beautiful actresses who make themselves ugly. Theron certainly fits both categories, but damn this is one hell of a performance. Theron is so emotionally raw in an already difficult movie, it would be hard for me ever to sit through the whole thing again.

Naomi Watts, Mulholland Drive (2001)

Watts probably gets my vote for favorite actress performance of the decade. As Betty/Diane, Watts has to show two completely different personalities. She's so successful that some viewers didn't even realize it was the same actress. Watts also has to play with cliche and archetype in this mind-twister, and she succeeds on every possible level.

Movie Videos & Movie Scenes at MOVIECLIPS.com

Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (2004)

Kate is my favorite actress, bar none. As Clementine, Winslet is quite simply the heart and soul of my favorite movie of the decade. Better known at the time for her British period dramas, it's surprising that Winslet was chosen for this role, but she is absolutely perfect.

-I loved so much of Winslet's work this decade. As good as she was in her Oscar-winning role in The Reader (2008), I actually think her work is stronger in Little Children (2006) and Revolutionary Road (2008). She also gave a great supporting performance in Iris (2001).

Movie Videos & Movie Scenes at MOVIECLIPS.com

Looking at this list, my tastes diverged from Oscar a bit. Only two of these performances won (Mirren and Theron), while Watts, Kidman, and Hawkins were not even nominated for these great roles. As these actresses age, I hope the movie world continues to find great roles for their talents.

Best Performances of the "00s": Actor

Before Oscar season explodes in full force, I thought I'd continue with my look back at the past decade. Here are my picks for the 10 most revelatory, affecting, skillful performances by lead actors.

Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood (2007)

I'm writing these in alphabetical order, but I'm sure glad Daniel ended up at the top of the heap where he rightly belongs. I don't think there was another performance last decade as audacious, strange, and brave as Daniel Plainview. Day-Lewis carries this whole film on his back, and he is absolutely unforgettable.

-Also Oscar worthy in Scorsese's Gangs of New York (2002).

Movie Videos & Movie Scenes at MOVIECLIPS.com

Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson (2006)

Gosling gets my vote for the most promising actor of his generation. As Dan Dunne, a committed but drug-addicted middle school teacher who develops a close relationship with a student, Gosling gave a performance lacking any false notes or histrionics.

-Gosling was also so moving and natural in a completely different role in Lars and the Real Girl (2007). I can't wait to see what he does with Blue Valentine, which releases soon.

Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain (2005)

Ledger is the only actor who makes both my supporting and lead lists for different roles this decade. What else to say about this actor we lost far too young? With Brokeback and The Dark Knight, I think Ledger qualifies as this generation's James Dean. It's amazing that he was only 25 when this astonishing performance was filmed.

Movie Videos & Movie Scenes at MOVIECLIPS.com

Viggo Mortenson, A History of Violence (2005)

While his most-seen work this decade was in The Lord of the Rings movies, Mortenson's most brilliant work was with director David Cronenberg. As a small-town man with the past Tom Stall, Mortenson gives a brilliantly layered performance.

-Also terrific as a Russian mobster in Eastern Promises and of course in those movies about some hobbits or something.....

Bill Murray, Lost in Translation (2003)

I've seen this performance more than any other on this list, and I grow more in love with it every time. As washed-up movie actor Bob Harris, Murray creates a hilarious and lonely portrait of a lost soul without ever going even the teeniest bit over-the-top.

Movie Videos & Movie Scenes at MOVIECLIPS.com

Edward Norton, 25th Hour (2002)

Spike Lee's post-9/11 New York movie is perhaps one of the most overlooked great movies of the decade. As Monty Brogan, a drug dealer about to be sent to jail, Norton gives a deeply emotional performance that ties the whole beautiful movie together. Just watch this brilliant scene, which is filled with hate but is subtextually a mournful love letter to the city he's leaving.

Sean Penn, Mystic River (2003)

As grieving and angry father Jimmy Markum, I don't think Penn has ever been better, and he's certainly one of our best actors. He turns one man's sorrow into a tragedy of Shakespearean proportions.

-I almost chose Penn's performance in Milk. As much as I loved Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler, I was firmly on team Penn in Oscar Race 2008.

Mark Ruffalo, You Can Count on Me (2000)

I don't think there's ever been a brother-sister duo as beautifully acted and felt as Laura Linney and Ruffalo in Ken Lonergan's lovely movie. His first big role, and I still don't know why he's not a biggest star.

-Also great in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. I'm also rooting for a Supporting Actor nomination (win??) for this year's The Kids Are All Right.

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote (2005)

Yes, Hoffman does a wonderful imitation of Truman Capote. But he goes so much deeper than that, giving us a multi-faceted view of a character who is simultaneously an outcast and an insider.

-I also loved Hoffman's work in Almost Famous (2000), 25th Hour (2002), The Savages (2008), and Synecdoche, NY (2008).

Movie Videos & Movie Scenes at MOVIECLIPS.com

Tom Wilkinson, In the Bedroom (2001)

Matt Fowler is a very different grieving father from Sean Penn's Jimmy Markum, but his deep sadness may be even more felt by the viewer. His performance has to be great so that the surprising twists of this domestic drama ring true, and it is.

-I also loved Wilkinson in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (2004) and Michael Clayton (2007)

Oscar did a pretty good job of recognizing my favorites. While only 3 won the grand prize (Day-Lewis, Penn, and Hoffman), all except Edward Norton and Viggo Mortenson were nominated, and Mortenson was nominated for Eastern Promises.

I'm also struck by the darkness of these portraits. Several killers, a couple grieving fathers, and a few substance abusers. Looking at the group, I'm also excited for their future work. Most of these actors make good choices in their roles, and I have a feeling many of them will be filling out the Oscar slots for years to come.

The Town and Fair Game

The Town

Is working-class, Irish Catholic South Boston one of the most ubiquitous movie locales of the past decade or so? It's not hard to see why. Tribal loyalties, drugs and violence, an ethnic enclave slowly changing, and one of the best accents in the country. Add to the already crowded Southie team Ben Affleck's second directorial effort, The Town. It's a worthy addition to the field.

The Town is a perfect example of a really well-made genre movie. Its plot is fairly simple. A group of bank robbers (led by Doug, played by Ben Affleck) rob a bank and take a hostage during the robbery (Claire, played by Rebecca Hall). In order to make sure the hostage doesn't remember them, Doug checks up on Claire and they of course start a relationship. What elevates this story is some really great performances and some truly engaging chase and robbery scenes. I'm not usually a huge fan of Affleck's, but he was very strong in this movie. I think he could have used a bit more of a harder edge, but all in all I liked him. I absolutely love Rebecca Hall in everything she's done (especially Vicky Cristina Barcelona and Please Give), and she does a very nice job adding depth to a somewhat underwritten character (think Minnie Driver in Good Will Hunting). The best performance in the movie is given by Jeremy Renner as Jem, the extremely violent and unpredictable friend to Affleck's character. Renner, who was so astonishing in The Hurt Locker, proves himself as an actor again. I wouldn't be surprised to see another Oscar nomination for him. Chris Cooper and Pete Postlethwaite are also terrific as always in limited roles as older members of the crime community.

So how does The Town stack up compared to its Boston forbears? It doesn't have the air of epic tragedy you got from Mystic River, nor the audacious violence and energy of The Departed, so I wouldn't put it in the company of those two great movies. I do think it's a bit stronger than Affleck's previous Boston movie, Gone Baby Gone, which I also liked but didnt' seem as cohesive. Affleck is a capable director who knows how to tell a good story and shoot a great action sequence. My biggest problem with the film is probably the ending. I loved the almost-ending (to avoid spoilers, I'll just say involving Rebecca Hall on the phone), but thought the scene after that was a bit hard to believe (Rebecca Hall in her garden plot).

In a year that's looking a little weak for 10 Best Picture nominees, I even think The Town, which has been a hit, has a chance at a Best Picture nomination. It's solid entertainment, and I'd recommend it to anyone.

Grade: B+

Fair Game

If you asked me my favorite performance by an actress during the past decade, I'd probably say Naomi Watts in Mulholland Drive. If you asked me my favorite by an actor, Sean Penn's turns in Mystic River and Milk would certainly rank high. Give me a movie starring Watts and Penn, and I'm there.

Fair Game is the story of the Valarie Plame/Joe Wilson saga. For the first hour, the movie was terrific. It follows Plame's actions as a CIA agent, Wilson's trip to Niger to investigate uranium tubes, and how the Bush administration's thirst for war led to vicious backstabbing. The first hour of the movie is gripping, intense, and brings back the anger so many of us felt in the nation's rush to war.

The last 45 minutes of Fair Game deals more with the fallout from Plame's outing as a CIA agent, especially the effect on the couple's marriage. This material felt a little thin to me, and I don't think it lived up to the first hour. We still care about the characters, mostly because of the very strong performances.

Fair Game is the a movie that is engaging and highly watchable, but doesn't stand out as great. I don't see it playing much of a role in the Oscar race this year.

Grade: B

The Social Network.... and a few thoughts on other films

The Social Network

Give or take Inception, The Social Network is perhaps the "buzziest" movie to come out so far this year. It comes to us with ecstatic reviews, zeitgeist appeal (who's not on Facebook now?), and a truly talented director (David Fincher) and writer (Aaron Sorkin) combo.

The movie does not disappoint. From first frame to last, The Social Network is a highly engaging, suspenseful, and fascinating character study of a man (boy?) who is a bit of an enigma. It's easy to leave the movie and come out with very different feelings about Mark Zuckerberg. Villain, hero, tragic hero? The movie never really pulls it out for either side. Personally, I fall in the anti-hero side, but I'd love to hear from those who disagree.

The most accomplished part of the film is the highly literate script that moves quickly and tells us just about everything we need to know without being expository. I also loved the intense music by Trent Reznor and the performances by Jesse Eisenberg and Andrew Garfield. I've always liked Jesse Eisenberg in his earlier performances (Rodger Dodger, The Squid and the Whale, Adventureland), but goes beyond his previous performances here. He plays Zuckerberg as an obsessive, socially delayed, ambitious, and somewhat pathetic. I don't think he ever cracks a smile in the whole movie. Andrew Garfield, as Zuckerberg's partner, also gives a very good performance as the most sympathetic character in the movie. I also really enjoyed Justin Timberlake's performance as the flashy and charismatic creator of Napster.

As much as a I really really liked the film, it doesn't quite tip the scales to love for me. It was a lot of fun, and very interesting, but it's not a movie I would go back to again and again. It's being talked up a lot as an Oscar frontrunner, but I don't quite see it winning the whole thing at this point. It will certainly do well in nominations, but I don't think the older Academy will push it over for the win. It's still one of the most engaging and exciting movies of the year.

Grade: A-

The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (2010)

As a fan of the books, I was excited to see how the Swedes adapted Stieg Larsson's characters to the screen. What I found was a long movie that was consistently watchable but still didn't add some of the important details of the books. It was fun to watch, but I think mostly because I knew the characters from the books. Noomi Rapace gives a good performance as the title character, but she didn't quite fit my image of Lisbeth Salander. I wanted someone even edgier and stranger, and in the movie she came across as semi-normal. It was fun to watch, though, and I'm sure I'll see the next two.

Grade: B-

Babies (2010)

So this was kind of cute, but also pretty tedious after 80-some minutes. No narration, no explanation, just a film comparing four babies. I think maybe some Werner Herzog-like narration would have kept me more interested.

There were several scenes where the babies interacted with cats that I loved. I would have liked it better if it was called "Cats" and just had a few scenes of babies. What does that say about me?

Grade: C

Why Children of Men is a Masterpiece

Have you ever been blown away by a film, but only on a second viewing? This recently happened to me with Children of Men. I saw the movie a few years ago and I admired it quite a bit. When I watched it last week though, it completely overwhelmed me with its brilliance and emotional impact. Whereas before I didn't include it on my Top 10 of 2006 list, I honestly think it's now my favorite movie of that year.

Here's a few reasons why it's brilliant.....

1. The Cinematography by Emmanuel Lubezki. There is not a wasted shot in this entire movie. It's often easy to make beautiful vistas look beautiful, but here Lubezki has to engage us in a movie that is ugly both emotionally and physically. There are several bravura sequences: The opening sequence, the car chase that ends in a killing, and the entrance into the immigration camp. In several of these sequences, Lubezki tells the whole story in a single shot. Check out the clip below to see what a master he is.

Movie Videos & Movie Scenes at MOVIECLIPS.com

2. Clive Owen. There are many modern actors who work at being chameleons, slipping into roles with new accents and new tricks for each role. Clive Owen strikes me as more of a classic Hollywood actor. He plays a similar archetype in the movies, a world-weary observer of those around him (Closer, Gosford Park). Within each role though, he finds new depths. I think Children of Men is perhaps his best performance, showing a man who has built up a shell and how that shell is gently cracked.

3. The Uncompromised Vision. I can't imagine that director Alfanso Cuaron wasn't pressured to make this story more palatable to Hollywood audiences. I'm glad he stuck to his guns. There are several instances where major characters disappear from the story, and these lend a shocking power to the movie. He also has the strength to throw in just enough gallows humor to keep the viewer from being entirely overwhelmed.

4. The Political/Religious Allegory. I'm not always one for allegories in movies, since they can too often just be obvious or devoid of any true meaning. Here's one who's allegory works on many levels. Politically, the world depicted in Children of Men is realistic enough that I can imagine it happening if world events take a certain turn. The immigrant-bashing, homeland security, and general hopelessness seem all to real, yet you're not hit over the head with it.

I tend to like Christian allegories even less in movies. If I watch "The Green Mile" and notice that Michael Clarke Duncan's character is a Christ figure, does that illuminate anything about either the movie or faith to me? No. In Children of Men, I truly connected with its central premise of the first "child" being born into a viscous world in need of hope. Watching the character of Kee have a child in a dingy abandoned apartment, I couldn't help but think how sanitized the Christmas story has become. Children of Movie is the rare movie that actually made me think about religious ideas in a new and complex way.

I'm so glad I took the chance to watch this movie again. Do any of my readers have similar stories? Movies you liked the first time but grew into your favorites?